Tuesday, February 25, 2020

February 26th: LCK

February 24th Recap:


LCS: 0 - 2 (-2.0 units)
Parlay: 0 - 1 (-0.25 units)

TOTAL: 0 - 3 (-2.25 units)

Unfortunately for us, TSM know how to draft in this current meta and for whatever reason, red side teams still refuse to ban Ornn. He's now up beyond a 66.66% win rate and is only the 11th most banned champion in the LCS this season. Those numbers need to change. EG are the type of team that want to go underneath but they just shouldn't even try in this metagame unless they get Olaf+Yuumi. Dig were just squarly outplayed by a TL that looked much more disciplined. Somewhat close game but never really in doubt for TL. 


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LCK (Korea)
Week 4 - Day 1

Sandbox -287 (-1.5 @ +118)

vs
KT Rolster +197 (+1.5 @ -167)

So media coverage other than the stream has been indefinitely suspended due to the coronavirus outbreak in Korea. Hopefully we get a stream but it's most important for everyone to stay safe. I'll be doing these writeups but just know that at any time we might just be without an LCK unless this gets better.


I think a lot of people are going to be on KT Rolster in this spot. I do like that they understand that they need to do something different and mix things up in the draft or go super linear with their strategies in their current form but I also think that Afreeca spoon fed games one and three both to them in this series and that's so so critical right now but here's the catch. Sandbox haven't exactly been a great team this season either. 


Sandbox utterly trounced a clumsy and ill-prepared DAMWON team who are now on dumpster fire alert until they prove otherwise. So how much credit do we want to give to any of these wins? Not as much as people think. I could also see Sandbox using this as another opportunity to try out FATE and possibly Route and Joker get a series in as well. KT Rolster haven't been a bad early game team and we've seen that Sandbox more or less lose every single game they get behind in. 


Underdog +1.5 map spreads have gone 20-10 so far in the LCK this season. If you were to blind bet them at the posted odds you'd be at a ~+20% ROI assuming equal staking for each. Why is this the case? Partially because there is a lot of parity in the LCK but also the game in it's current state, assuming patch 10.3 stays put, is still very hand-shakey. Very few teams are taking risks because it's simply not worth it to so you end up with a lot of games looking like Worlds 2018 where it's basically a coinflip.


I desperately want to fade KT Rolster here. The thing is I think Sandbox are going to try subs and that they're so poor from behind that I just can't confidently say they'll 2-0 anybody right now. I'm seeing a small value on the KT +1.5 and found a -150 at 5Dimes that I'll be on for this selection. 


Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -150 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)

Prop: Exact Sandbox 2-1 @ +230 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)



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Griffin +246 (+1.5 @ -113)
vs
T1 -369 (-1.5 @ -128)

Both Griffin and T1 have gone to three games in four of their first six series but T1 have faced a slightly tougher schedule along the way. T1 struggled in the early game in both games of their 2-0 over APK Prince. Their drafts have been better than they were in their first three series over the last two but they're still typically playing from a disavantaged position which I'll never be a fan of. It matters a lot less right now as long as you're an intelligent enough team to play disciplined like they are, but against other good teams and players they're playing with fire giving up early leads like this. Griffin have actually had some great openings and have utterly stomped a few individual games this season. They've been pretty good with any sort of lead with one notable exception.


I think a lot of people are going to look at this and use transitive comparison. "Griffin couldn't beat Hanwha, dropped a game to APK, and lost to a DWG that looks bad right now. T1 have 2-0's against KT and APK and have wins over the top teams in Gen.G and DragonX." Griffin have had some coaching woes that have reared their ugly head this season but I look at the talent on this team, the current metagame, and the fact that T1 have been giving up early game leads and think there's a pretty good chance we see a 2-1 T1 victory here. I also think we've missed the boat on the T1 -1.5 which was at -102 yesterday. I'm taking Griffin +1.5 here. Day one of the week has resulted in a three game series in five of six outings and a few of those have included big dogs (APK vs Afreeca, KT vs Gen.G).

Spread: Griffin +1.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)(5Dimes)

Prop: Exact T1 2-1 @ +250 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)

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