Thursday, February 27, 2020

February 28th: LCK, LEC

February 27th Recap:


LCK: 2 - 1 (+1.25 units)


TOTAL: 2 - 1 (+1.25 units)

Nothing too far out of expectation here. Thought Afreeca maybe had a shot. Was looking like Hanwha were going to take game three as well (see my "speaking too soon" tweet). 

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LCK (Korea)
Week 4 - Day 3

DragonX -1408 (-1.5 @ -260)
vs
APK Prince +593 (+1.5 @ +172)

DragonX have gone to three games in all but one series this season but they have also faced Gen.G, T1, and Afreeca in three of those and faced KT and Sandbox in their first week. Their only sweep was against Hanwha against the surprise Tryndamere funnel strategy. In that game Keria fed first blood and then proceeded to hard carry the game from the support position. Pyosik and Keria disrupted Hanwha and adjusted like veterans that have been doing this for years. DragonX have faced a pretty tough schedule and, in combination with the parity present in Korea as a region, that has lead to a lot of three game sets. 


APK have taken four games this split through six series which is more than a lot of people thought they'd have at this point in the season. This team isn't going to roll over and die to people like a 10th place team they're going to battle. They have some really weird pocket picks like Ikssu's Illaoi that have been giving teams some trouble. The thing with teams like this is that often they just run out of gas at some point in the middle of the season. I think we're getting to that point. Typically as the season progresses the "bad" teams start to get outclassed as they have to adapt week to week while early in the season they can prepare a set handful of strategies that will last them a few weeks into the season. APK have only really faced one of the elite teams so far this season and it was T1 who handedly beat them without Faker even scoring a kill in the series. Everyone else includes a 2-0 over KT Rolster, 1-2 losses to both Griffin and Afreeca, and 0-2 losses to DAMWON and Sandbox. While I think calling those teams weak isn't totally reasonable but a lot of those squads haven't exactly been sharp this season and APK was still only able to take games off Griffin and Afreeca outside of that KT series.

I know I've been preaching about how much of a coin toss the game can be in this metagame and justifying underdogs in that way but I'm just not seeing it in this spot. The combination of the season developing and DragonX looking outstanding has me thinking this should just be a clean 2-0. That said, because of the likely Illaoi bans APK have been able to get really snowbally champions like Ornn, Soraka, Olaf and Qiyana with more frequency than a lot of other teams. Champions that are as powerful as those can give enough of an edge even to an inferior team to win which is another reason we've been seeing upsets a lot this season. 

I'm staying away from this game. You could make a case for taking APK but I do think they are outclassed enough and we saw exactly what a good team does to handle them when T1 did it in their last match. DragonX should be able to execute cleanly enough and have individual advantages in every single position. I was able to shop around and found a -245 at 5Dimes but I'm not going to lay that kind of juice with potential substitutions involved or on the off chance that DragonX tempt fate and let Illaoi or one of the meta power picks steamroll a game.

No wager


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Sandbox +236 (+1.5 @ -141)
vs
T1 -350 (-1.5 @ -102)

Sandbox have looked pretty poor relative to expectations this season but I don't think they're a bad team. They struggle from behind in games but they're as clinical as anybody while ahead which is why we've seen so many three game series from them. Sandbox still have elite players. Summit inparticular. T1 have looked outstanding since making adjustments after their first handful of matches where they were having drafting issues. Faker is playing like the best player of all time again and Teddy currently has an 11.1 cs/min FOR THE SEASON. There's just no great way to attack this team because apparently Cuzz's Reksai is so terrifying that it's earned a ban in 89% of T1's games and most of those have been in the first rotation allowing T1 to have multiple power picks every game. They're so intelligent and disciplined and possess good enough players to play their way out of deficits so leads aren't even that safe against them unless you're also an elite team.

The top lane matchup is concerning to me. Whether T1 decided to play Roach or not is another issue. He hasn't been bad but Canna has outperformed him for sure this season and has earned the majority of the playing time. Either is going to struggle against Summit. That said, I think there is an edge at every other position on the map for T1 and a huge strategic advantage.

Unlike the last series, I actually think there is still some value at -102 for the T1 spread. We're going against the trend of underdog spreads in this spot. Sandbox went to three games in week one against DragonX. Week one tends to have more dropped games than most weeks so I tend to put a little less weight on game losses or even match losses in the first week of the season. I don't think anybody would argue Hanwha is better than T1 because they beat them week one. Outside of taking single games DragonX week one and a roster swapping Afreeca, Sandbox haven't played any currently good teams. 2-0 of DAMWON is looking a lot less impressive with how they've been performing and a loss to a competitive but not great KT Rolster team in their last two has left a lot to be desired.

I have T1 2-0'ing this about 60% of the time, 2-1'ing this about 35%, and 5% other outcomes. I typically don't mess with gigantic moneylines but I do feel strongly about the T1 2-0. They've shown the ability to beat the "broken" champions and seem to have fixed a lot of their drafting issues. While I won't mess with this moneyline we are going to take the value on the spread winner with T1.

Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)

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LEC (Europe)

Week 6 - Day 1

Origen -422 vs Schalke +271
Excel +147 vs Rogue -207
Misfits +197 vs Fnatic -287
MAD Lions -369 vs Vitality +246
SK Gaming +444 vs G2 eSports -885

 Favorites are 35-15 this season. If you shrink that to favorites that are -300 shorter (between -300 and -100) that record becomes 19-11. Of those 11 underdogs, 3 were Misfits, 2 were MAD Lions, 2 were Excel, and 1 each for Vitality, Rogue, SK, and Origen (vs FNC). Big dogs of +200 or greater have four wins, three of which were against G2 and the other is Misfits against Origen.

Europe is actually pretty boring this week with a very lopsided slate but there are a few dogs I like.

No wager on Origen vs Schalke, the line is just too large for me and we're not getting enough value on Schalke even with improved recent performance. Origen are also not a team that typically loses to inferior teams due to the way they play. They'll lose to equally or more talented teams that are creative like Fnatic or G2 but they almost always smash everyone else because they make very few mistakes.

No wager: Origen/Schalke

Excel are only 2-4 as underdogs this season, one win against MAD and the other week one against Schalke (yikes...). Rogue are 5-1 as favorites with their only loss coming to MAD Lions. We talked a lot about this matchup and about Excel in general on the podcast this week but generally I think Rogue, Excel, and MAD Lions are all in a similar spot in the mid tier of Europe and they haven't really done much to differentiate from each other. Rogue and MAD possess higher upsides in my opinion but that doesn't mean we should rate them higher than Excel who have a coaching advantage over both. I also think Misfits will eventually fall into this group. To me there is absolutely no reason why any of these teams should be favored over one another by this much so we're taking underdogs when these teams play each other. I'm always a fan of competent teams as underdogs against non-elite teams unless there is a drastic stylistic mismatch against them. I also think Rogue have been just a little off recently. Something doesn't seem right and I can't pinpoint what it is but they just look like they're in a funk. Mickey could single handedly lose this game for Excel as he's been terrible but again, I don't think any of these middle teams should be laying this much. I also found a +175 at 5Dimes.

Moneyline: Excel +175 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

Misfits are 5-2 as underdogs this season which makes sense as they've been generally overachieving most expectations. The last time these two teams faced off in week one Fnatic demolished Misfits in 20 minutes but that was the top lane Nocturne "free win" so how much stock you want to put into that win is up to you (maybe there's a revenge angle...). Fnatic are 7-2 as favorites this season with their only losses coming to MAD Lions and Origen. The last time Fnatic were -422 favorites in this spot. While Misfits have impressed me and I willingly admit I was wrong about them, I believe that's reflected somewhat in this line move to -287. That said I do think Fnatic should be favored in this spot. Misfits are good but they're being overrated because of the run they've been on. Fnatic and G2 are still the class of Europe and I think Origen are in that group as well especially in the current state of the game. Everyone else is a tier lower. Typically I like taking big underdogs that are good teams but I'm just going to stay away from this one. This feels like Fnatic pound town.

No wager: Misfits/Fnatic

MAD Lions are 3-2 as favorites with losses to Misfits and Excel. Vitality are understandably 1-8 as underdogs with their lone win coming last week against fellow bottom dweller SK. The first time these two teams faced in week one, MAD were -234 favorites. Keep in mind that most books were actually very high on this team in the futures markets as often having them 4th in the rankings due to Splyce's previous success so that line factored in both that and Vitality's weak 2019. MAD have impressed and will likely improve as a team but that was a Vitality that hadn't played a lot with their sub mid laner and that have since undergone some other roster changes. I'm not saying Vitality are a good team but they've upgraded and have seemingly pulled themselves off the mat and are willing to compete again after a losing streak that would demoralize anybody. Vitality are going to be feisty the rest of the split. MAD are good but they're being way overrated here. I know I keep saying I'm going to stop messing with betting MAD games but the value here is just too good for me to pass up. I'll take a small taste of Vitality as big dogs.

Moneyline: Vitality +270 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)

I'm not touching SK. People might be overreacting a bit too much to the G2 losses this season and want to take them here but I'll just pass.

No wager: G2/SK

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Parlays:

"Big Chalk" Parlay (4): T1 ML + DragonX ML + G2 ML + Origen ML @ +100 (1 unit)

I typically don't like these bigger parlays but I was mulling over the likelihood that this misses and I just don't see it happening. The weakest leg of this is probably T1 and I was considering a moneyline wager in that spot. This is way to get exposure to a handful heavy favorites that are just outside of my moneyline range without risking as much.

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