February 17th Recap:
LCS: 1 - 1 (+0.5 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 1 (+0.5 units)
FlyQuest put on a clinic. The rest of North America should take note, especially the weaker teams, of how FlyQuest draft. They're just all-in on late game because only the elite teams are good enough to consistently close in time to get underneath scaling compositions. Evil Geniuses picked an early/mid spike composition that, because of a weird skirmish that could have easily gone the other way in top side ended up heavily favoring C9 and putting the scaling team ahead. Win some lose some, we're up on the day.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 3 - Day 1
Hanwha Life +214 (+1.5 @ -132)
vs
Gen.G -299 (-1.5 @ +126)
Hanwha are the talk of the town, and for good reason, but I'm starting to think they're becoming a bit overrated. Gen.G are just coming off of a competitive loss to T1 in arguably our best series of the year so far in the LCK while Sandbox decided to try out FATE in his first games on the professional stage while also giving another go to Route and Joker. I understand what Sandbox is trying to do and it might end up paying dividends further down the line but it's tough to give full credit to any team beating up on a swapped up roster unless we know they're credible. These players are good, as a team they aren't so I'm hesitant to give full marks to Hanwha for that victory.
I'm going to be on Gen.G to 2-0 here. I don't think we'd be getting a plus number at all if either Gen.G won their series outright or Hanwha dropped a game or lost outright. It's not as great a value as we had on DragonX last week (-262/-1.5 @ +140) but I'm treating Gen.G and DragonX as in the same tier. I respect Hanwha and this metagame enough to not go hard to the paint on this one but I'll take the 2-0 for a unit. The +126 on this spread is the best number I've seen at any of the books I've looked at.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +126 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)
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T1 +103 (+1.5 @ -256)
vs
DragonX -139 (-1.5 @ +244)
This T1 team is really frustrating. You watch their in-game decision making and overall discipline and they look like a world class team already. The problem is that they've had one, maybe two, winning drafts or even what I'd call "good" drafts this season. DragonX, as we've talked about, look outstanding. When your two rookies were the biggest doubt going into the season and they're blowing games wide open almost on their own then you've got the beginning of something special. I fully expect this team to be at the world championship this year and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win the split.
This is tough to call. I think if you're going to be on a side in this match it almost has to be T1 unless you're seeing something I'm not. I'd set this match at a pick'em, maybe split -105 / -115. If you think T1 will have two or three normal drafts, even if they don't hard win them, then I like T1 at the plus number. I don't think that's unreasaonble to expect but I'm going to have to see it to believe it.
I do think this goes to three games. Rarely do I bet game total overs, typically two good teams can still be great and play a close 2-0 either way and that's often more likely than a three game series but as I mentioned last week, the current complexion of the game is very coin-flippy. This feels a lot like the T1-GenG series again and since we don't have any really strong trends or histories because of the roster swaps, and because it's early in the season I'm going to rely a bit on film review and "gut" capping in this spot. I think we'll get a close one.
Map Total: T1/DRX OVER 2.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)
--------------------
Hanwha Life +214 (+1.5 @ -132)
vs
Gen.G -299 (-1.5 @ +126)
Hanwha are the talk of the town, and for good reason, but I'm starting to think they're becoming a bit overrated. Gen.G are just coming off of a competitive loss to T1 in arguably our best series of the year so far in the LCK while Sandbox decided to try out FATE in his first games on the professional stage while also giving another go to Route and Joker. I understand what Sandbox is trying to do and it might end up paying dividends further down the line but it's tough to give full credit to any team beating up on a swapped up roster unless we know they're credible. These players are good, as a team they aren't so I'm hesitant to give full marks to Hanwha for that victory.
I'm going to be on Gen.G to 2-0 here. I don't think we'd be getting a plus number at all if either Gen.G won their series outright or Hanwha dropped a game or lost outright. It's not as great a value as we had on DragonX last week (-262/-1.5 @ +140) but I'm treating Gen.G and DragonX as in the same tier. I respect Hanwha and this metagame enough to not go hard to the paint on this one but I'll take the 2-0 for a unit. The +126 on this spread is the best number I've seen at any of the books I've looked at.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +126 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)
--------------
T1 +103 (+1.5 @ -256)
vs
DragonX -139 (-1.5 @ +244)
This T1 team is really frustrating. You watch their in-game decision making and overall discipline and they look like a world class team already. The problem is that they've had one, maybe two, winning drafts or even what I'd call "good" drafts this season. DragonX, as we've talked about, look outstanding. When your two rookies were the biggest doubt going into the season and they're blowing games wide open almost on their own then you've got the beginning of something special. I fully expect this team to be at the world championship this year and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win the split.
This is tough to call. I think if you're going to be on a side in this match it almost has to be T1 unless you're seeing something I'm not. I'd set this match at a pick'em, maybe split -105 / -115. If you think T1 will have two or three normal drafts, even if they don't hard win them, then I like T1 at the plus number. I don't think that's unreasaonble to expect but I'm going to have to see it to believe it.
I do think this goes to three games. Rarely do I bet game total overs, typically two good teams can still be great and play a close 2-0 either way and that's often more likely than a three game series but as I mentioned last week, the current complexion of the game is very coin-flippy. This feels a lot like the T1-GenG series again and since we don't have any really strong trends or histories because of the roster swaps, and because it's early in the season I'm going to rely a bit on film review and "gut" capping in this spot. I think we'll get a close one.
Map Total: T1/DRX OVER 2.5 maps @ -102 (1.02 units)
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Parlays:
none for now
none for now
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