Thursday, February 6, 2020

February 7th: LCK, LEC

February 6th Recap

LCK: 2 - 0 (+1.82 units)
Parlays: 1 - 0 (0 units)
NET: 3 - 0 (+0.49 units)

So I talked a lot on the podcast about how APK might not be as bad as Jin Air but they're going to have to prove it first. I'm going to try not to hold this first series against them too much Sandbox are a really good team with a lot of returning players and staff. I expected them to hit the ground running. We also talked about how the top seven and bottom three are clearly different levels in the LCK but I'm starting to think that maybe it's like 7-2-1 tiers. APK looked clueless. Also for some reason nobody took Ornn in game two? Weird. APK auto fade until further notice.

Afreeca/Griffin was a bit like T1/DAMWON yesterday in that both teams did things that impressed me but also infuriated me. Bizarre drafts, not bad, just bizarre. Either Afreeca have a read on how they want to play against this scaling meta or they're picking up right where they left off last year and will be the LCK's uptempo team yet again. Blitzcrank, Pantheon, heavy midgame spiking teams that fall off a cliff late look like they're going to be Afreeca's calling cards. I'm a fan of it frankly. It makes every game a bit of a sweat if they ever slow down but I actually think it's a good way to attack all these teams playing passive and just trying to scale. Afreeca outplayed a few fights in this series much like T1 did yesterday. They almost definitely should have lost game one as they sort of stalled out after a dominant mid game and it looked like Griffin's massive frontline plus Senna comp was rounding into form. Won a few fights they had no business winning but that's what happens when you have good players. Notably SS (formerly Ssol) started game one and Mystic game two. Not entirely sure if this is a draft or strategic consideration or if they're going to split the workload. Both looked excellent. Mystic had this stellar play in game two

I actually thought Jelly looked incredible in this series. He's been a pretty good player over the course of his career but never exactly a head turner. His Blitzcrank and Rumble supports show a bit of a new look from a player that has clearly developed quite a bit in the offseason. He looked outstanding!


The Gold Card Podcast can be found on iTunesStitcherSpotify, and PodBean!

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

LCK Spring 2020 - Opening Week
Week 1 - Day 3

T1 -368 (-1.5 @ +108)
vs
Hanwha Life eSports +252 (+1.5 @ -112)

Hanwha and KT were in a similar spot in my pre-season power rankings which made me, at least initially, want to take this +1.5 but after discussing this matchup on the podcast I've come around on the T1 sweep. CuVee tends to be a later in the year type player, in fact we joked about him "only being good in August." This was a bit facetious but generally he has started the year slow over his career. I also think we just saw T1 outmanuever DAMWON, a significantly better team from a deficit. Maybe you could make the argument that Hanwha have seen a match of tape from T1 but truthfully I'm having a hard time justifying anything other than the T1 -1.5 maps here AND we're getting a plus number on it. T1 outclass Hanwha at every single position besides top lane and support and that's assuming CuVee is in form and Lehends is adjusting to his new team. I think the blend of continuity, the fact that T1 beat a much stronger DAMWON team makes me willing to take the spread here. I know it's week one and I know we haven't seen Hanwha but if we trust out pre-season rankings and just evaluate the talent and what we've seen so far I actually think this is a pretty big value. 

Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +108 (2 units)


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KT Rolster +313 (+1.5 @ +110)
vs
DragonX -483 (-1.5 @ -114)

KT had a great showing in game one against Gen.G and made our faith in this coaching staff and roster pay off but they really shot themselves in the foot in game two's draft. Game three they were simply outclassed by Gen.G. Do I think this was more Gen.G looking bad or KT looking good? I thought KT looked pretty good but I don't think it's a reasonable place to argue from if, like me, you have some respect for this roster and coaching staff who are experienced and have proven to be good over a long time. KT are better than people think. That said, the top of the table in Korea is so competitive this year that it's going to be challenging for them to make any waves. I wouldn't rule it out though.

DragonX is one of the two teams we have yet to see but, as you all know from my pre-season rankings, they're a team I'm extremely high on and I have them winning the split. I have a ton of respect for cvMax as a coach, off the Rift issues aside, the dude took a team of rookies and dominated the LCK for three straight splits and not only that, but did so with surgical precision. Griffin were the most disciplined team I've ever seen but I digress. Part of why I wanted to bring this up is that after the excellent KeSPA Cup performances of the rookies Pyosik and Keria, which were the only question marks for me, I suddenly became very bullish on this team. I expect DragonX to hit the ground running. 

I have a lot of respect for KT Rolster, perhaps more than anyone else I've seen but DragonX are looking to be a world class team and cvMax's teams don't have any history of starting slow (I know... small sample size). Expect this team to be in form immediately. As a matter of fact I somewhat think that once some teams get used to professional play again, that Korea should hit the ground running in general. They've had extra preparation time. 

Give me the DragonX sweep here. I'm going to be a bit lighter on this because I respect KT a bit more than Hanwha but DragonX should take care of business especially after seeing what KT want to do on this patch and the mistakes they're potentially prone to in their last match.

Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -114 (1.14 units)

UPDATE: Doran is being subbed out, Chovy moving to top and Quad will play mid. I'm hedging+ this wager. Chance DRX still win the match but I don't feel as good about it now. (source)

Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ +112 (1.1 units)


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LEC (Europe)
Week 1 - Day 3

SK Gaming +172 vs MAD Lions -260
Misfits -123 vs Schalke 04 -123
Excel +271 vs Fnatic -422
Origen -654 vs Vitality +345
Rogue +329 vs G2 eSports -535


I actually love the Western slates in both NA and EU this weekend quite a bit. There is a ton of value and another matchup I fancy even though it looks correctly priced.

MAD Lions are still being priced as if they're Splyce from last year. Either that or people are seeing something I haven't with this team. Are people that hype on their start vs G2? I tend to weigh their punting of that lead more than their good start. SK aren't a great team by any stretch but I have these two, at least for this point in the season, very close. By season's end I'm sure MAD will be better but to be laying -260 in a best of one? What has MAD Lions proven so far? Give me SK Gaming.

Moneyline: SK Gaming +172 (1 unit)

Schalke have announced that they're starting Lurox over Gilius. Schalke entered the season with a six man roster which was announced in a previous video and it appears that Lurox was planned to be involved all along. While I don't entirely buy the substitution "having nothing to do with Gilius' performance," I do understand them wanting to make a change. What concerns me, however, is that this feels a bit panicky. I was ready to slam Schalke in the "get right" spot this weekend in both matches but I had to rethink my position on the matter. After putting some thought into it I'm still going to roll with Schalke. This team hasn't been playing badly, they've just been losing. Unlike CLG in the LCS, this team has played significantly better than their record. I also happen to think Misfits are a little fraudulent. At some point other teams aren't going to let Febiven have Leblanc and nobody else on this team has really shown me anything worthy of exceptional praise. That's not to say they can't just that they haven't already. I still like Schalke even with Lurox starting here but I'm going to reduce my position to win only one unit. I know we're not really getting a lot of value with the split -123's but I feel quite strongly that Schalke are a much better team and that these two teams have deceiving records.

Moneyline: Schalke -123 (1.23 units)

Excel are my favorite "big" dog of the week this week. Fnatic are a great team and after a rocky first game they've been utterly smashing everyone. The thing is, Excel have looked quite good as well. There are a few angles to this game. YoungBuck is the best or second best coach in Europe, and probably the West in general. I have a ton of respect for him and you can tell just how effective he is as a coach with maybe one glaring exception last week. He was also Fnatic's coach last year and knows these players inside and out. He'll know how to exploit their tendencies. This price is also just wrong for two good teams in a best of one. Fnatic are obviously good and obviously better than Excel but Excel are no slouches and this is a best of one with an excellent former coach involved. Give me the dogs!

Moneyline: Excel +271 (1 unit)

Origen look solid. Their excellent fundamental approach to the game makes them a rather low variance team that will almost always struggle against truly elite teams long term, but also makes them rarely ever lose to teams that they are superior to. Origen aren't a team that will randomly punt a bad loss as often as say Fnatic or Rogue or even G2. That said, this line is a bit too rich. Vitality haven't announced whether or not it will be Saken again yet but regardless of who is starting I think Vitality are laying a foundation for next season or later this season and the way they're playing and drafting aren't exactly showing that they care specifically about winning right now. We went into a lot of detail on this one on the podcast so I'd encourage you to check that out.

Origen/Vitality: No wager

G2 could probably go undefeated if they want to but they haven't shown that in the past. If you watched one of Perkz' interviews, G2 have more respect for Rogue than they do for Origen. I actually think Rogue are probably the third or fourth best team in the league and their willingness to take risks and generally good play would help them actually close a game with a lead against G2. The theory I have is that G2 tend to play better against people they respect and then clown around against weaker teams. A lot of their losses are random bad ones to bad teams because they go a little too far meme'ing everyone. 

I'm going to go half a unit on Rogue here. The line feels just a tad disrespectful to a good team in Rogue who I actually think can take a game straight up and are talented enough to not get blown out of the water. There's a chance G2 are also looking ahead to their match with Fnatic on Saturday. I won't fire too many darts at teams against G2 but this feels like a game Rogue have had their eye on for weeks on end now. Rogue can win this without a weird pick but that wouldn't surprise me either. 

Moneyline: Rogue +329 (0.5 units)

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Parlays:

(pending, check back later)

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