Saturday, February 15, 2020

February 16th: LCK, LCS

February 15th Recap:

LCK: 1 - 2 (-2.39 units)
LEC: 1 - 3 (-1.4 units)
LCS: 0 -1 (-1.0 units)

TOTAL: 2 - 6 (-4.79 units)

Rough day at the office for us even though we hit our +1020 underdog in Schalke. Vitality were in position to win that game before a tremendous baron throw where they didn't turn. Sandbox got completely run over by Hanwha. I'm contemplating a full reevaluation of Sandbox but I have a feeling it's just been a rough week for them and I don't want to overreact. Fnatic losing was something I thought was possible but still found value in the number. I should listen to my own advice and stop betting MAD games. I'm clearly mad they're overrated but shouldn't put anything at stake just to prove that, I should just know it's true and abstain.


(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)

LCK (Korea)
Week 2 - Day 5

KT Rolster +241 (+1.5 @ -117)
DAMWON -348 (-1.5 @ +113)

DAMWON looked terrible in their series. As good as Gen.G looks I'm having a hard time giving them too much credit in this series because DAMWON, frankly, looked checked out. Not watching the map, not talking, etc. Do I think DAMWON are doomed? Absolutely not. They're in a bit of a slump psychologically. They've been punished pretty hard for their clumsy play this season and then turned in that performance. This is a bit of a gut call but this just feels like a DAMWON get right game. The problem I'm having with it is not only the odds but the fact that I don't think KT is quite as bad as people think they are.

I'm going to take DAMWON to sweep this but only for half a unit. I can't help but think that was a wake up call that you can't sleep through this league and to be embarrassed can be a strong motivator. There's no way their coach didn't lay into them after that performance and they'll be here for this one.

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 @ +113 (0.5 units)


Gen.G -178 (-1.5 @ +174)
T1  +129 (+1.5 @ -182)

T1 looked like they woke up after a really weak week one. They actually had a decent looking draft for once! I think this team is better than people are giving credit for. People are holding that loss to Hanwha against them but now that you've seen some more of Hanwha was it really that bad? I know Gen.G look like the best team in the league right now and they've been proactive a bit more than I'm accustomed to seeing from this team but I can't help but think T1 have a shot here.

Spread: T1 +1.5 maps @ -182 (1.82 units)

Moneyline: T1 +129 (0.5 units)


LCS (North America)
Week 4 - Day 2

Golden Guardians +160 vs Dignitas -234
Liquid -350 vs CLG +236
FlyQuest +172 vs Team Solo Mid -260
Evil Geniuses -102 vs Immortals -141

I'm going to be on Golden Guardians for a full unit here for a few reasons. First, Dignitas are still being overvalued based on their start and name brand players on their roster. Yes they picked up the win last night but it was with Soraka who now moves to 9-2 in the three major regions that are playing so far this season. It's so so difficult to give a lot of credit to wins with Soraka right now. Second, is that Golden Guardians, while not particularly great, are being undervalued a bit. Third, I have these two teams as roughly equal, maybe a slight edge to Dignitas but not -260. This should be something like a 55-45 split AT MOST meaning we'd get something in the -120 to -130 range. Give me the dog here. I think this matchup is even and severely mispriced.

(I still like the more current numbers of +160 for GGs here but I put this in before I started writing this)

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +172 (1 unit)

I know everyone is in fade Liquid mode right now but give this team some time and they'll be fine. I know they have more problems than jungle but I also think this team is honestly coasting a bit. Do I like it? No but it looks to be the case. They'll be a top two team by seasons end even if the record doesn't show it and CLG is an absolute mess right now. I'm honestly tempted to lay this number. If I can find something closer to -250 I'll probably fire but for now this makes a decent parlay target.

Liquid/CLG: no wager

This play on FlyQuest is almost strictly line value as I have these two graded a lot closer than the books do at roughly 60% (-150) for TSM. FlyQuest are aggressive. I like the way they're playing and drafting right now and they have V1per who can blow any game wide open.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +172 (0.5 units)

Immortals admittedly look pretty good right now but I also think they've faced a bit of an easier schedule than people are giving them credit for. Their win against TSM was in that "we're sick/awful" week one of TSM before they turned it on and Liquid clearly aren't in the form everyone thought they were. Other than that it's been 100 Thieves, Golden Guardians, and CLG. Not exactly a murderers row. Everyone is sleeping on this EG team because of the 2-4 start although I'll admit the loss to CLG feels pretty terrible but yet again I blame Soraka... I'm somewhat surprised this number isn't bigger but I think EG are the right side here. I like Immortals but I do think they're just a tad fraudulent. I don't like pointing to statistics this early in the season with such a small sample size but Immortals gold differentials, team damage per minute and gold per minute rates are not up to par with even the middle of the table. You could argue they're due for some positive regression but I'd think the opposite.

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)



"Three Dogs" Parlay (3): 
FlyQuest ML + Evil Geniuses ML + Golden Guardians ML @ +1251 
Round Robin (every iteration of these three): 0.1 units each
4 parlays, 0.4u to win 2.84 u

Round robinI actually think there is a reasonable chance this happens today and while I don't typically parlay "value" picks, I do when I think there's close to a 50% chance the dogs take each match. Low risk high reward here.

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