LCK Summer 2019 - W1D3
Short and sweet version of this is that this line is out of reach. You could have maybe gotten SKT spread at -278 when this came out as a "shoebox" bet for a surefire hit but as it stands I'm abstaining from this one. If ths over/under kills was around 22.5 I might have fired on the under but even if I expect a lopsided SKT stomp here they're usually clean and precise in doing it I still wouldn't touch 20.5 that's a really low number.
No wager
I know Gen.G just beat DAMWON but it's not as simple as it looks. Credit to Gen.G for taking what DAMWON gave them and I think the gameplan they showed of punishing DAMWON's occasional tunnel vision on playing around Nuguri could be something teams use moving forward. I think in game two especially that DAMWON really played directly into how Gen.G has played and chose to slow the game down and scale, something you don't want to do vs Gangplank and Ruler. They got punished for it and then lost momentum for game three. I think DAMWON will be fine and while I like how Gen.G performed I'm not putting too much weight on this win as an upset. Remember, going into the season I had 3rd-8th place basically in the same tier in the LCK. With enough of these teams improving and some likely to regress a bit it's a total crapshoot and we're going to have to see who has a good read on the metagame, who is overperforming/underperforming, and approach things from a stylistic matchup standpoint.
Naehyun will be the new starting mid laner for Kingzone was Pawn rests for what I'd assume are medical reasons. So what does this mean for Kingzone? Naehyun played three games last split going 1 and 2 with games against Hanwha (week 4), Gen.G (week 3), and Sandbox (week 1). He played Zoe, Yasuo, and Lulu. It's worth noting that this was at the beginning of the season before Kingzone went on their absolute tear through the LCK. I think Naehyun will be a fine player but Pawn miraculously looked a lot like his old self this past split which is really impressive given the length of his career and I think he was a huge part in why Kingzone had a lot of success last season. This is almost definitely a downgrade if you consider that Pawn was playing close to his ceiling however it doesn't mean that Naehyun will be a negative for this team. I think he'll be fine. Kingzone benefited a lot from great teamplay and coaching and I don't expect that to change however given the mid lane matchups he faced last split only Dove is a top of the region type talent so it's hard to tell how he'll hold up over a season.
I think the correct play here is to take Gen.G +1.5 since we're getting decent odds on it but I think Kingzone's bottom lane is the best in the world and one of the only ones that could hold down Ruler. For this reason I'm going to make it a light wager on the Gen.G +1.5. Another aspect we've seen that was discussed on the broadcast by PapaSmithy was that the LCK meta seems to be a good mix of scaling/carry focused play and uptempo/skirmish heavy play. I think with a rookie mid laner that both of these teams will play towards their best players in Ruler and Deft and we end up getting slower games here. It's a small sample size of ten games so far but the LCK has had an average game time of 35:28 albeit with an outlier in Griffin/Afreeca at 45:28.
Spread: Gen.G +1.5 @ -145 (1 unit)
O/U: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ -130 (2 units)
O/U: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ -130 (2 units)
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LPL Summer 2019 - W2D4
I'm looking forward to this match. FunPlus had an outstanding regular season and was unfortunately ousted by JDG in what I think may have been this teams worst series I've games ever. They'll be hungry after going out that way. BiliBili look outstanding and completely demolished an awful Victory 5 team as expected as a good appetizer to the main course here. I am in love with the BiliBili +1.5 here at this number. I know I had these teams a tier apart in my power rankings on the podcast but I think the tier 2 LPL teams are all capable of taking games off the top tier teams and BiliBili look primed for an excellent Summer with the slightly more scaling focused direction to the metagame. BiliBili also get side selection for this series and after busting out the Karma in both games in their first series they don't look opposed to throwing a curveball at FPX. I think I was actually too low on BiliBili in my rankings. This team could enter the elite tier. ADD, Kuro, and Jinjiao were absolute monsters last season and I actually think they matchup extremely well against FunPlus.
This series should be much closer to 50/50. If I was capping this I'd have FunPlus as slight favorites, maybe -120 or -130. This is obscene value on a really, good BiliBili team. This isn't an overreaction to smashing what could end up as the worst team in the League in Victory 5 either. I fully expect BiliBili to be in the picture for top four by the end of the split and it's no disrespect to FunPlus either.
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -120 (5 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +248 (2 units)
O/U: Map 1 Over 24.5 kills @ -114 (0.5 units)
O/U: Map 2 Over 24.5 kills @ -114 (0.5 units)
I don't want to overreact to one series against a tremendously overrated JDG team but LNG looked really good outmaneuvering a superior JDG late game scaling composition in two out of three games that went into the late game. Now obviously Invictus is a completely different beast than JDG but I actually think the value here is in the LNG +1.5 and perhaps in the exact IG 2-1. Here's the catch though....
I think Invictus not winning MSI and being bounced in the round of four was the best possible thing that could happen to this team. Invictus are arrogant. It's their biggest strength and their biggest weakness. I expected them to come back with a raging vengeance but they unfortunately ran into a Dominus team that looks to be proving my rankings wrong already. Dominus look really good and so do LNG. I actually would put them pretty close together right now based on initial impressions. IG are still figuring out things with their new support Lucas who, in my opinion, didn't look very good in two of their three games so far. Small sample size but worth noting compared to the solid as a rock Baolan.
LNG +1.5 is going to be the pick here and it's not because I don't think IG are good or anything I just think they're going to drop games once in awhile and as long as they keep running into teams that are running hot it is really difficult to get sweeps especially with a new player on your team that hasn't had a lot of new players recently. Invictus will be fine but I think they'll drop one here, or rather that the odds of them dropping one are higher than these odds imply so we're going to fire.
Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +160 (1 unit)
Moneyline: LNG +468 (0.25 units)
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LEC Summer 2019 - W1D1
I actually think Splyce +260 is a decent underdog bet in week one but I'm going to abstain from this one. I'll have a really hard time betting against G2 until they've clinched playoffs or show they're messing around and even then I'll be hard pressed.
No wager
If I were to bet this game it'd be on Excel and if this line hits +200 I might do that since I have some faith in the upside of that lineup and respect the possibility that Schalke could crash and burn. I love week one underdogs.
No wager (strong lean Excel)
I absolutely love Vitality for a number of reasons here. One this team is exceedingly hard to deal with in best of ones and with an entire offseason to prepare who the hell knows what they've come up with. I also think it's a stylistic mismatch for how Origen like to play the game. Origen along with some other mid table teams really struggle with efficient and effective aggression and that's exactly what I expect from Vitality here. We're also getting a lot of value based on the results of playoffs which I think were more on the flukier side of variance than people want to give credit for. Vitality are a good team and I love them in this bounce back spot enough to put a best of one max three units on them.
Moneyline: Vitality +129 (3 units)
As I've already mentioned I love week one underdogs and with a new look Rogue could catch some people off guard. I tend to think bottom teams improve more than public perception it's just a matter of how much they've improved relative to the teams in front of them that determines a better finish but Rogue and Excel should be a lot more competitive this split and steal a few more games. Misfits have just as much likeliness to crash and burn and look like a bunch of washed up veterans as they do to overachieve. I love betting week one underdogs, love the value we're getting here, and love new look teams in their first stage game with no film on them. This is a great spot for an upset.
Moneyline: Rogue +252 (1.5 units)
Leaning to SK Gaming here, again just because we don't know what to expect out of week one but the odds aren't quite good enough to fire on this for me yet as I think this line is fairly accurate. IF we get to +200 I'll like SK for half a unit but I expect Fnatic to be in form.
No wager (lean SK if >+200)
No wager
If I were to bet this game it'd be on Excel and if this line hits +200 I might do that since I have some faith in the upside of that lineup and respect the possibility that Schalke could crash and burn. I love week one underdogs.
No wager (strong lean Excel)
I absolutely love Vitality for a number of reasons here. One this team is exceedingly hard to deal with in best of ones and with an entire offseason to prepare who the hell knows what they've come up with. I also think it's a stylistic mismatch for how Origen like to play the game. Origen along with some other mid table teams really struggle with efficient and effective aggression and that's exactly what I expect from Vitality here. We're also getting a lot of value based on the results of playoffs which I think were more on the flukier side of variance than people want to give credit for. Vitality are a good team and I love them in this bounce back spot enough to put a best of one max three units on them.
Moneyline: Vitality +129 (3 units)
As I've already mentioned I love week one underdogs and with a new look Rogue could catch some people off guard. I tend to think bottom teams improve more than public perception it's just a matter of how much they've improved relative to the teams in front of them that determines a better finish but Rogue and Excel should be a lot more competitive this split and steal a few more games. Misfits have just as much likeliness to crash and burn and look like a bunch of washed up veterans as they do to overachieve. I love betting week one underdogs, love the value we're getting here, and love new look teams in their first stage game with no film on them. This is a great spot for an upset.
Moneyline: Rogue +252 (1.5 units)
Leaning to SK Gaming here, again just because we don't know what to expect out of week one but the odds aren't quite good enough to fire on this for me yet as I think this line is fairly accurate. IF we get to +200 I'll like SK for half a unit but I expect Fnatic to be in form.
No wager (lean SK if >+200)
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Parlays:
(already in, have rethought a couple of these, the ones I'd take back are struck through)
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Parlay (2): G2 ML + VIT ML @ +200 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): VIT ML + BBG +1.5 @ +319 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): BBG +1.5 + LNG +1.5 @ +376 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): GEG +1.5 + BBG +1.5 @ +200 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): GEG +1.5 + LNG +1.5 @ +326 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): BBG +1.5 + KZ./GEG OVER 31:00 @ +224 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): LNG +1.5 + KZ/GEG OVER 31:00 @ +360 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): BBG +1.5 + LNG +1.5 @ +376 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): GEG +1.5 + BBG +1.5 @ +200 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): GEG +1.5 + LNG +1.5 @ +326 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): BBG +1.5 + KZ./GEG OVER 31:00 @ +224 (0.5 units)
Parlay (2): LNG +1.5 + KZ/GEG OVER 31:00 @ +360 (0.5 units)
Parlay (3): G2 ML + VIT ML + FNC ML @ +323 (0.5 units)
Eastern Exacta Parlay (4):
SKT -1.5 + GEG +1.5 + BBG +1.5 + LNG +1.5 @ +821 (0.25 units)
"Vitality and The Favorites" Parlay (5):
VIT ML + G2 ML + S04 ML + MSF ML + FNC ML @ +675 (0.5 units)
"G2 and the Underdogs" Parlay (5):
VIT ML + ROG ML + SK ML + EXC ML + G2 ML @ +8447 (0.25 units)
The Full Friday Exacta Parlay (9):
BBG +1.5 + LNG +1.5 + GEG +1.5 + SKT -1.5 + FNC ML + MSF ML + VIT ML + S04 ML + G2 ML @ +7034 (0.1 units)
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