Betting: June 5th (LCK, LPL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 1

This one is mostly straightforward. I have KT as my most improved team of the offseason in the LCK and think they'll finish in the playoffs while Jin Air did nothing. Jin Air will almost certainly improve but I'm not sure they have the horses or the stable to really make enough improvements compared to the potential growth I see in the other bottom half teams in the LCK. Afreeca, KT Rolster, and Gen.G should all be improved this split. For some of those teams they hit rock bottom and never recovered and with the quality of players present I simply can't see it being that bad for them again. Jin Air on the other hand.... yikes. I'm willing to admit there is some potential week one upset potential here. We don't know if KT is just going to be the same team or not but even that KT Rolster utterly stomped Jin Air last season and in the relegation tournament.

This unfortunately is out of reach for us to bet but I will be taking a few of the unders as I expect this to a KT Route (... wait he's on the wrong team).

O/U: UNDER 22.5 kills @ -116 (1 unit)

O/U: UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

O/U: UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (1 unit) (add on)

I actually started writing on this one yesterday and had to stop as I thought long and hard about it. Kuzan will be starting for Gen.G which has the potential to be an upgrade but until I see what form he's in remains a likely sidegrade. I think Fly has gotten a bit of a raw deal over the course of his career. He's not just a high risk high reward player. He's much better than that and has unfortunately been typecast into this "only roams playstyle" which I think is too narrow a characterization of his abilities. That said, you all know I love Kuzan and I think they're both excellent but different players. Kuzan is more well rounded than I think Fly is but I'm not sure if I like the fit with Gen.G. Kuzan can do it all really well but I liked Fly on Gen.G as a fit because I thought it would force them to be more proactive but sure enough their coaching staff lulled even players like Peanut and Fly into their style. 

I think Gen.G need to adapt for me to ever consider them a great chance for playoffs. As they are their players are good enough to get there doing their thing but they'll never be better than that. Imagine Splyce but more conservative but maybe with slightly better upside. 

This game is really tough to call. My brain says this should be a DAMWON 2-0 and the odds we're getting are great for that but my gut says Gen.G might have some week one shenanigans and then immediately revert back to themselves. I'm going to be betting the DAMWON 2-0 because I can't really convince myself otherwise and the odds are excellent but I am going to reduce my weight on it out of respect for my instinct here.

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +124 (3 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 3

This is likely my pick of the week for the blog albeit it's a bit too early for the podcast. Victory Five's new members could show up and breath some life into this team but I can't help but think the late offseason loss of their best player in Jinoo was a dagger in the heart to this squad and with only a couple weeks to find replacements and regroup, unless this team can develop an us against them mentality I just don't see them finishing outside of the bottom tier of LPL teams. 

On the otherside is BiliBili, a team that impressed me quite a bit and I actually think have some room to grow still despite an excellent performance last season. They're intelligent, disciplined, versatile, and their players were outstanding last season highlighted by ADD and Kuro. I think if I had to redo my LPL power rankings from last weeks podcast episode I'd actually move BiliBili up to the EDG tier 1.5. This team is good. It's not always flashy but they're the real deal. 

I'm really high on BBG and really low and V5 so the fact that we're getting -133 on the spread here gets me amped up. We're firing our largest wager of the LPL split so far on this match. For comparison we totaled 10.5 on the combination moneyline and spread for EDG vs Dominus and I think Dominus is a significantly better team than Victory 5 while BiliBili are similar to EDG. I also think early in the season is the time to attack situations like this even with the risk of rust and early season question marks. You aren't ever going to get value like this in a matchup like this and I'm surpremely confident in BiliBili to dismantle Victory 5 who I have finishing in the bottom handful of teams this split and perhaps even dead last with how Vici looked the other day.

PICK OF THE WEEK!

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ -133 (8 units)

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ -135 (2.5 units)(add on to make it BOOK MAXIMUM)

I desperately want to throw a unit on the rebranded LNG (formerly Snake) just because I think JDG are severely overrated by everyone but I have little to no faith in LNG to actually win this match. I was half expecting this line to be closer to -1000 in which case I would have fired on the dog but I actually like the +1.5 here at plus odds for a couple units. I think week one like this while LNG still potentially have some fresh energy. LNG also took a game off JDG in their meeting towards the end of spring split which, if people remember, is when JDG was still battling for a playoff spot so they hadn't mailed it in like most teams you'd see in a final. Don't forget that this team wouldn't have even gotten into playoffs without two teams ahead of them completely botching their opportunity. 

I'm not betting this out of spite for JDG like it might seem. I actually think we're getting good value on the +1.5 here so we're going with LNG to steal a game again here in week one.

Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +114 (2 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): KT -1.5 + DAMWON -1.5 @ +205 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): DAM -1.5 + BiliBili -1.5 @ +290 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): KT -1.5 + BiliBili -1.5 @ +137 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): KT -1.5 + DAMWON -1.5 + BiliBili -1.5 @ +433 (0.5 units)

Wednesday Exacta Parlay (4): 

KT -1.5 + DAM -1.5 + BiliBili -1.5 + LNG +1.5 @ +1034 (0.5 units)