LCK Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 2
While I have these two teams right next to each other in my power rankings, they are a full tier apart and I believe that Hanwha and Jin Air will be a good deal worse than the 3rd-8th place teams in the LCK this split. It's not that they've gotten worse but the fact that they haven't changed anything and that I think this team has mostly realized it's growth potential with this roster along with the fact that last years "greater than the sum of its parts" model hasn't been as effective in this iteration of the game for Hanwha.
I think Sandbox are similarly due for regression for somewhat similar reasons. For being such a linear squad they were surprisingly creative at times but Sandbox tend to live or die with OnFleek and Dove. The difference is that that's a good duo to rely on compared to Tempt/Bono (who I expect to see the majority of the reps this split... wish we saw more Lava). It's not that Tempt/Bono is bad it's just not on the same level as OnFleek who can just completely take over games.
Sandbox 2-0'd Hanwha twice last split and only one of the games was really close. Both of these teams are similarly "well coached" teams but unfortunately that seems to matter a little less this season than just having straight up baller players. I'm fairly confident in the 2-0 but I was able to get in earlier in the week for +134 so I fired for a couple units. I'd probably still fire for 1-2 units on Sandbox at this current number as I think they're a full tier better than Hanwha but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this series go three games. I'm going against the value grain a bit here but again I got in at a better number. At the current number I think the "system" bettors should probably look to the OVER 2.5 maps @ +117 but I'm thinking Sandbox come out the gate firing tomorrow.
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +134 (2 units)
I'm fairly high on Afreeca this offseason under the assumption that with the current iteration of player focused League of Legends, this team can't possibly be as bad as they were in Spring. Unlike some of the other bottom half teams we actually saw flashes of Afreeca's ceiling. In the final weeks of Spring we saw these two play a really goofy three game series that Afreeca managed to take down but prior to that Griffin demolished Afreeca. This one is tough to get a read on. I think the value is in Afreeca here. Week 1 upsets are fairly common until the good teams figure out the other teams and I think Afreeca should be improved with a fresh season to start with but I also think Griffin could be extra motivated since they were again eliminated from an international competition and could have been stewing all off season. I think the value is in Afreeca +1.5 here but I'm not entirely sure I actually like it to happen. While I'm high on Afreeca I kind of think I want to see it first before I believe it. Fortunately this number is really good and so is the OVER 2.5 maps so I'm going to fire for a unit on each.
Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ +156 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +198 (1 unit)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 4
I'm a tad optimistic about LGD perhaps digging their way out of the bottom tier of the LPL but not because of their win over the dreadful looking Victory 5. With the addition of DoRun maybe we have a new top laner but it's hard to tell. For tomorrow Lies has been announced as the starter (here). LGD actually finished the Spring split strong winning 4 out of their last 5 series including a 2-0 against a good EDG team that was battling for their playoff spot, JDG who were in the same boat, OMG, and Snake. Prior to that they were pretty bad but I think LGD are trending in the right direction.
That said I think RNG are in full terminator mode already after a disappointing Spring and if we consider WE and LGD as similar power level teams (I had WE at the top of the same tier as WE), then we can likely expect RNG to smash this series as well as they can only improve with the addition and building of chemistry with Langx (XiaoAL). This is a really rich number and LGD do have side selection so I'm a bit skeptical but feel it's right to fire on RNG here. They can only get better and just finished smashing a very similar team in WE. I also love how aggressive RNG have been. Karsa really has been arguably the best jungler in the world this year and he's back to his dominant ways already. I expect a bloody stomp as only IG and RNG know how to do!
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -208 (4 units)
O/U: Map 1 OVER 25.5 kills @ -122 (1 unit)
O/U: Map 2 OVER 25.5 kills @ -122 (1 unit)
OMG are starting Curse, Penguin, Icon, Kryst4l, and Hudie.
Hard to get a read on two teams that are likely going to be in the bottom half but I did have WE a tier above OMG. The thing is while I think WE should take this down, their playstyle leaves them susceptible to getting run over so if OMG can hop out to a fast start and take advantage of their positional advantage in the mid lane with Icon I think they can steal a game here. The counter argument is that WE have lineup continuity and OMG are still figuring out a few things and trying players out. I'm leaning the OVER 2.5 maps but I'm not going to bet it yet. I'm also going to take the OVER 24.5 kills in both game one and two here as I think we might get mid length, team fighting games out of these two teams drafts.
O/U: Map 1 OVER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
O/U: Map 2 OVER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
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Parlays:
(already live) Parlay (3): RNG -1.5 + BiliBili -1.5 (W) + KT -1.5 (W) @ +222 (0.75 units)
(already live) Parlay (3): BBG -1.5 (W) + Sandbox -1.5 + RNG -1.5 @ +397 (0.5 units)
(already live) "Long week" Parlay (7): KZ -1.5 + G2 -435 + S04 -256 + Sandbox -1.5 + KT -1.5 (W) + BBG -1.5 (W) + LNG +1.5 (W) @ +3294 (0.25 units)
Parlay (2): GRF -1.5 + Sandbox -1.5 @ +246 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): GRF/AF OVER 2.5 + SAN -1.5 @ +526 (0.5 units)
Parlay (3): RNG ML + Sandbox ML + Griffin ML @ -132 (3 units)
Parlay (4): RNG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 + SAN -1.5 + GRF -1.5 @ +767 (0.5 units)
Parlay (4): RNG ML + OMG/WE OVER 2.5 + SAN ML + GRF ML @ +305 (0.5 units)
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