Betting: June 27th (LCK, NA/EU Rift Rivals)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 2

After watching the VODs for Gen.G/Afreeca I have to say that game one was a bit alarming but not for the reasons a lot of people might think. Senan has been the one weak link on Afreeca this season, he's been caught out way too many times. Sure we could say it's a symptom of the low mobility tanks he's been playing but I don't think that's been the case. He's been downright wrong a handful of times. It happened again early in this game as Aiming and Senan overextended into a Reksai gank that might not have been predictable but should have been on their radar and it didn't look like it was by how they reacted. Honestly that's not a game ending mistake against a team like Gen.G or even against al ot of good teams but it's a notable one. The fight that really broke the game open was at herald where Life just made an unbelievable play on Rakan and turned what would have been a close fight into a route. Sometimes players make big plays and sometimes good teams are the victims of it. How many Echo Fox Fenix plays have we seen over the years and that team isn't good. Game two was just a really flukey level one that honestly was a lot closer than it looked upon further review. In a scrim that's the type of thing that warrants a "go next." 

What I'm saying is that there were things Afreeca did wrong against Gen.G but not to overreact to a completely bizarre series of events. Afreeca are a good team that had a weird series loss to Gen.G on one mistake and a ridiculous Rakan ult and a weird level one. It was two games that simply got away from them and we shouldn't hold that against them as much as people seem to be. It's as if people completely forgot the great series Afreeca played against Sandbox literally the match before this Gen.G loss and we all see how good Sandbox is. 

DAMWON are coming off of an outstanding back and forth series with Kingzone but as I discussed in that blog post, I actually think DAMWON pose a particularly daunting challenge for Kingzone in that their solo laners are exceptional compared to their own. While that didn't exactly play out to be the only reason DAMWON won, it was certainly a contributing factor. The bottom line for me is that DAMWON do look good but they're sloppy at times and their macro decision making can be suspect. There's also those games where they only have eyes for Nuguri and that's exploitable. I also think they've benefitted from a relatively easy schedule that has so far included all but one team that I'd rank worse than them. They've faced SKT (2-1), Jin Air (2-1), KT Rolster (2-1) and Gen.G (1-2 loss). Hanwha is the one they haven't faced yet. They've gone to three games against all the bottom half teams except Hanwha  and even lost to Gen.G. The point I'm making is that DAMWON are pretty good but they're being severely overrated here. You could also argue that Kingzone handing over Sona/Tahm in game one was sort of an auto win (I don't care what the winrates say Sona is busted on this patch). 

I'm slamming the Freecs. This is a classic case of a great team being undervalued because of one really weird result and a good team being severely overvalued based on their record. There's no way in hell Afreeca should be an underdog against anybody that isn't Kingzone, Sandbox or Griffin right now. I'm not saying DAMWON are bad but this is a ridiculous line and Afreeca should be favored. I fully expect Afreeca to win this match 2-0 with maybe one or both games being somewhat close but uptempo. 

Moneyline: Afreeca +116 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact Afreeca 2-0 @ +241 (1 unit BOOK MAX)

Prop: DAM to win a map? NO @ +275 (1.5 unit BOOK MAX)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

Before we dive into this I'd be ignorant not to mention Haru, Mata, AND Faker being benched in game two against Griffin after what appeared to be a close game. Personally I thought Khan was more to blame for this loss but that it was a relatively close game where SKT were actually doing a lot of the right things against the team I'd call the best in the world right now. We have no way of knowing what's happening in comms right now or the mental state of the players. Maybe it's too many cooks in the kitchen? Maybe it's stress and pressure from the rough start? The one thing I do know is that in the past when SK Telecom has slumped Kkoma hasn't been afraid to bench anyone including Faker and it hasn't always worked out and it hasn't always been a one or two game thing. We don't know who is going to start tomorrow but I'm going to operate under the assumption that it will be Khan, Haru, Faker, Teddy, and Mata. Perhaps the benching wakes them up.

I know SK Telecom have looked bad. I get it. I also get that this team is playing a style that's suboptimal and unlike Griffin and, to a lesser extent Sandbox, who are doing this successfully because they're so damn good, SKT just can't seem to do the same. With that said I think they've faced the top four teams in the LCK and, depending on how you feel about this very SK Telecom team, the fifth best as well in DAMWON. SK Telecom have faced in order of most recent to least recent Griffin, DAMWON, Sandbox, Kingzone, Afreeca, and that weird series against Jin Air. They've taken games from Kingzone, Afreeca, and DAMWON. I don't care what you think of this team right now but ANY team was going to struggle through this schedule. 

So the question becomes more a matter of what to expect moving forward and what we've seen from the film so far. SKT haven't been completely rolling out the red carpet for enemy teams like Gen.G have been. Whichever jungler is playing has been trying to make things happen but they just haven't been able to, partially because of draft problems and partially due to execution. To be clear I don't want to blame all of SKT's woes on their schedule being difficult. They've had problems for sure but I can't help but think we'll see a return to form. They always ramp it up as the season develops and they just played at least one competitive game against Griffin in their last series and, perhaps more importantly, they showed a willingness to play uptempo against arguably the best defensive team on the planet and it was working even with some hesitation at times. SKT look like they're starting to get the right idea at least a little bit.

People are quick to forget things when expectations are so high. This team has looked downright dreadful in a lot of people's eyes because they're expected to be world class. SKT are still taking games off of some of the top teams in the region and they were playing an inferior style AND "looked off." Imagine what this team could do if they ever "get it together" just a little bit. I think KT Rolster is just what the doctor ordered. I talked a lot after their first two series about how SKT picked the wrong schedule to have a "rusty" or slow start to post MSI because of this stretch. They're also going to have a tough stretch to finish the season. IF SKT have any hope at all of making playoffs, something I think they can still do by the way, then they need to win these next few series and I feel they're completely capable of doing that. I've seen the right idea enough here and I think they have a good chance at taking down a KT team that's looked worse than their record (like Gen.G) regardless of subs or starters. I want to see this team get hungry and not punt away the entire summer season for developmental purposes. 

I'm not going heavy but I like SKT at these odds. This team can't possibly be this bad. I also think their strengths and KT's weaknesses lineup perfectly. SKT still have the players, draft focus, and mentality to be a light game monster team and KT Rolster have done nothing but punt leads and fail to close games. However this is also The Telecom War, perhaps the saddest ever with two struggling teams but I think SKT should get the better of KT here.

Moneyline: SK Telecom -169 (1 unit)

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +153 (0.25 units)

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NA vs EU Rift Rivals 2019 - Day 1

Anybody that followed me last year knows that I got torched at Rift Rivals 2018 so I'm a bit gunshy heading in here but not just because of that. The truth is we don't know how teams handle these sort of exhibition situations. Some teams try really hard, others do the same thing they've been doing, others treat it like a bit of a break midseason and don't prepare as hard and others, yet, have a lot of pride and care a lot. We could sit here and try to predict who will react in what way but I think it's kind of a waste of time. I only have one selection and one lean for now so I'll just talk about those picks.

I am so bored by Origen but they're a really good team that has put up respectable appearances against two really good teams in Fnatic and G2. TSM ... well honestly I'm not sure what TSM is I don't even know if they're the 3rd best team in NA right now. I just think Origen are straight up better than TSM by a big enough margain that I'm actually going to lay two units on them here. This is rather aggressive considering the points I talked about in my opening paragraph but this was the only line that really screamed value to me.

Moneyline: Origen -139 (2 units)

UPDATE: Added 1 more unit @ -111, for some reason the money is pouring in on TSM. We'll pounce!

Perhaps it just feels weird to see Liquid as a dog but I think this might be a tiny bit of overreaction to TL's "soft" start and Fnatic's win this week against G2. Again I remind people that these are best of one regions and to take game results with a grain of salt. Unless you see very specific things that trouble you on a fundamental level to mostly ignore the result. Have we forgotten that Team Liquid soundly defeated Invictus just a couple months ago? I'll lay a unit on the dogs here.

Moneyline: Liquid +108 (1 unit)

I know I did these in reverse order but deal with it. This last one is actually more of a bet on variance and cheese. Cloud 9 are such a bizarre team sometimes and when you get two teams like this in the same room some really weird things can happen. Combine that with the fact that it's the first game of the tournament so everyone is blind, and the fact that both teams are willing to draft aggressively and creatively and I think a lot of things can happen even if I don't think Cloud 9 are even in the same ZIP Code as G2 overall as a team I just like the situation and the odds we're getting. Consider this a bet on Cloud 9 + first game of tournament variance + best of one variance against G2.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 +238 (0.5 unit)

O/U: OVER 28.5 total kills @ +101 (1 unit)