LCK Summer 2019 - Week
Hanwha look like a team without an identity to me. They're not as bad as Jin Air but they honestly look like just as much of a mess. They'll draft for late and try to play early and vice versa. It's just perplexing. HLE have been swept by Griffin, Afreeca, and Sandbox. They took a game off Gen.G who we know is exploitable. Their wins came against the weak KT Rolster and Jin Air. Hanwha are almost definitely going to finish 9th and they're not even an optimistic future type of 9th. The only way I could see them taking a game is if Lava is able to jump out on Naehyun in one of these games but I'm not seeing that.
We're getting a lot of value with Kingzone here because they're coming off two losses in their last three matches to Afreeca and DAMWON and Hanwha are coming off of a 2-0 victory but it was against Jin Air. Anything remotely close to even money feels unfair. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth here.
Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -128 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)
Sandbox should handle Jin Air. There's justification for betting Jin Air here because the value is nuts but I'm going to stay away. Sandbox look like a world class team right now.
No wager
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week
We talked quite a bit about this one on the podcast and wondered simply "what are we missing here?" Really though what is it? Is there a sub we don't know about? I think this is simply the pre-season rating the books had on BiliBili was slightly higher and the 6-8 start vs Suning's 8-6 start has balanced it out. That's about all I can come up with. BiliBili have faced a really tough schedule including TOP, LNG, EDG, FPX and then two easier ones in OMG and V5. On the other side, Suning have faced that absolute murderers row of.... Dominus, JDG, WE, LGD, Vici and then the tougher Invictus (without Rookie).
Suning have looked better than I thought they would based on my roughly 11th-13th power ranking before the season started after losing XiaoAL but that doesn't mean they're good. BiliBili haven't looked quite as good as I thought they would. I figured they'd take some games against the tougher teams they faced but they've been 2-0'd for the most part by the good teams.
I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth here. BiliBili are AT WORST a lower playoff seed to me. Suning had a decent start against a really easy schedule while BiliBili have had a really tough one and are still close to .500. I absolutely love the BiliBili moneyline here AND the sweep. We're splitting action between the exact BBG 2-0 AND the Suning to win a map? NO because they're both relatively low limit and I wanted more exposure.
Moneyline: BiliBili -112 (4.5 units BOOK MAX)
Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +189 (1 unit BOOK MAX)
Prop: SN to win 1 map? NO @ +218 (0.75 unit BOOK MAX)
I don't want people to think this is an overreaction to RW upsetting EDG the other day. Rogue Warriors are not a good team at all but they have jumped out on people with early leads. LNG are a team that's been playing a more slow paced, deathball/5v5 fighting style akin to the old Snake teams years ago and it's been working for them. I think this opens a window for RW to actually jump out to a big enough lead to steal one of these and perhaps even two. If they were able to do it to EDG (albeit they were playing badly), they could definitely do it to an LNG team that has impressed but is definitely due for some regression. They're probably a playoff team but I don't think they're as good as this start has people thinking. I LOVE THESE ODDS for RW to upset one more. We're getting insane value so we're going to try it.
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +404 (0.5 units)
Spread: RW +1.5 maps @ +142 (1 unit)
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Rift Rivals 2019 - NA vs EU Day 2
Long story short here I didn't like a lot of bets today even looking ahead before the absolute slaughter we saw today. I like Liquid to upset G2 for similar reasons to why I liked Cloud 9 yesterday PLUS the revenge factor from not only day one but MSI Finals. It's a bit narrative driven but how also how often do you get to see Liquid +227? I honestly don't care who the opponent it I'm going to consider it especially in a best of one. As for the Liquid over Origen pick I still think TL are the better team and put this pick in earlier in the week. Origen have looked good but TL are on a different level than TSM or C9.
Moneyline: Liquid +227 vs G2 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: Liquid -122 (1.5 units)
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Parlay:
Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + BiliBili ML @ +236 (1 unit)
Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + BiliBili ML + RW +1.5 @ +714 (0.5 units)
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