LCK Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 4
SKT were a bit wobbly in their first game vs KT where it took them almost 50 minutes to eventually close because Azir is pretty busted past 30 minutes but they got it done. I'm not entirely convinced SKT has "turned it around" but I think there are a few factors at play here against a team like Gen.G that make me love SKT.
Gen.G quite literally surrender early game both in draft and in game. They don't really force errors but they will capitalize on them. The one thing SKT haven't been doing badly this season is making huge errors in the early game. SKT's problems have been stylistic ones. Drafts, how they navigate early games, etc. Gen.G aren't going to punish that. SKT haven't been immune to late game mistakes either as we saw this past weekend but I'd prefer to see them in that setting than any other with the players and drafts they prefer. SKT are going to have side selection here and they'll get to dictate how they want to play this series. They haven't been opposed to trying uptempo concepts. As a matter of fact we saw them succeed against Griffin with the Sej/Cam/Irelia trio and jump out to a sizeable lead in that game. If we consider how incredibly good Griffin are fundamentally and SKT were able to break it open against them I start to really love the thought of SKT jumping out on Gen.G.
I got in on this one earlier in the week under the assumption that this line would go up when SKT defeated KT and sure enough it did. Perhaps my only concern is that SKT opt into the coin flip and just handshake to scale to late game. Other than that I love SKT here. I'm not going super heavy on it but I'm going to add on to my early week wager which should signify my confidence in SKT here. Think of this more as a condemnation of Gen.G than an endorsement of SKT.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -139 (1 unit)(initial wager)
Spread: SKT -1.5 maps @ +191 (0.5 units)(initial wager)
Moneyline: SK Telecom -185 (1 unit)(add on)
Once or twice a year there is the perfect storm, a combination of great film, bad luck, an actual bad performance, good luck for a bad team, and if they happen in the exact order you can get completely blown out. This is what has happened to Afreeca this season to me in the past three series. Sometimes it's with a bad team improving not a good team letting down. I put a heavy emphasis on film review and everything I've seen points to Afreeca being an OUTSTANDING team. Senan can be a bit of a liability sometimes but for the most part an excellent, world class team playing the game with the right idea at the moment. Similar to JDG's playoff run I'm not going to let a few flukey, weird performances convince me that all of my film review has been wrong. It's just not how I operate.
Afreeca are in a weird funk. After weird back to back losses I feel that they perhaps overcorrected. Against Gen.G they punted early game both times, once was honestly to a "go next" situation the other was just mistakes and then an unbelievable outplay by Life on Rakan. In their next match against DAMWON they went bit more late game, something they haven't really done at all this season by selecting the Corki/Sivir in game one and Jayce, Azir, Sivir game two. Neither of these are particularly "all-in" on late game and can have priority in certain matchups but not the matchups they went with here. Afreeca are a priority team that snowballs advantages through good play between their lanes and jungle so seeing them switch up like this is either alarming because they've lost confidence or just a bump in the road as they're experiementing a bit. I'm choosing to believe in the latter but you don't need to feel the same way.
KT aren't good. They're improving a bit here and there but a lot of the same problems are still. Their drafts are bizarre and not in a good way and they still have a lot of trouble closing. I think this is a perfect get right game for Afreeca. I know I said the same thing against DAMWON but I think DAMWON are at least a tier better than KT possibly more. I will likely add on more to this once I see Afreeca draft an uptempo composition like the ones they were succeeding with earlier in the season but I'm willing to trust that they'll want to break out of this slump they've been in.
Every once in awhile you get blown out but in the long term FILM DOESN'T LIE. I put the Afreeca -1.5 bet in earlier in the week before the DAMWON series assuming they'd win that. I still feel really great about it and said that even if they lost to DAMWON that I'd still love it unless it was an absolute disaster. It wasn't so we stick with it, no hedge.
Moneyline: Afreeca -185 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +142 (1 unit)(initial)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 5
I spoke about it earlier this week and on the podcast that I'm trying to avoid LPL -1.5's but TOP and FunPlus are my exception teams. I'm not sure what's going on with WE right now. I can't put a finger on it but there's just this weird vibe and Kalvin (@RulerRSama) echoed my sentiment on this one. This team either feels like it's going to implode or explode. It feels like there's a lot going on behind the scenes that we aren't privy to and it's affecting the players. It's just a hunch but I don't really like WE much anyway and think this is not a playoff team this season. I'm actually going to take the TOP -1.5 here. The number we're getting is decent because WE are coming off of a 2-0 win against EDG but it was their first win of the season. Against the other good teams they've been completely obliterated. Even Suning whooped on this team. I'm going to put a few units on the -1.5 here. TOP tend to take care of business just like FunPlus does. They're not like IG and FPX.
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -128 (3 units)
Invictus have announced that they're starting Duke in the top lane. Rookie is still out which means Forge gets another series. I don't think this entirely affects how I'd bet this series. Perhaps we like JDG +1.5 a bit more than we already did but it's not exactly like Duke is a bad player he's just not TheShy. I actually think Invictus probably 2-0 this still but we're not going to bet it.
No wager (lean JDG +1.5)
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): SKT ML + AF ML @ +137 (2 units)
Parlay (3): TOP ML + AF ML + SKT ML @ +196 (1 unit)
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