Apologies for not getting a post to you all last night the tournamnet day went a bit longer than I expected and we ended up out late with friends. I released a few selections on Twitter that did not come through for us this morning. Gen.G and KT played a fairly competitive series that just didn't go our way and DAMWON straight up trolled a draft away against Jin Air. All the model people had a field day on that one :)
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NA LCS Week 3 Day 2
A lot of people think this line is too good to say no to OpTic on but this is Team Liquid we're talking about. TL are a cut above the rest of this league regardless of what their record says. If you want to throw a shot on OpTic because of the line value feel free but I'm going to be passing this game. It's not like Cloud 9 finally "solved" OpTic or anything yesterday they just outplayed them. I think we could see the same thing here.
No wager
The toilet bowl... So 100 Thieves announced that they're starting FakeGod, Amazing, Ryu, Bang, and Aprhomoo. Ryu has experience playing with most of these players as this roster has been a little fluid over the past year or so. Expect him to fit right in but I think one of the big problems 100 Thieves appear to have is just poor communication. As a matter of fact it literally looks like they aren't talking at all. I'm not sure if Ryu helps or hurts that but I don't think Echo Fox look particularly great either. 100 Thieves looked a little better in their match last night against Golden Guardians. I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm going to put a quater unit on the Thieves here. Echo Fox shouldn't be -204 over literally anybody in this league.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +156 (0.25 units)
Cloud 9 are such a bizarre team to draft against sometimes. They consistently win games that I feel they're outdrafted in but they're looking really confident and their in game play has echoed that. Sometimes they go for outplays but the team has generally had very strong macro. TSM has been a bit hit or miss this season. I like Cloud 9 to take this one down and while I don't have too much exposure on the actual moneyline I have a ton in mixed parlays. I got in on this one early yesterday morning
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -119 (2 units)
FlyQuest are a classic case of a good team with a brutal schedule. They've faced Liquid, OpTic, TSM, Golden Guardians, and Cloud 9. Other than themselves I'd argue that's the top five teams in the league right in a row. If you consider OpTic's great start you can suddenly forgive the 1-4 start from FlyQuest. I absolutely love this spot for FlyQuest. Clutch has had a similarly tough schedule facing TSM, Golden Guardians, Cloud 9, and OpTic but they also had a free win against 100 Thieves last week. I actually think Clutch has looked about where I had them in the preseason. The best of the non-playoff teams with perhaps some upside but FlyQuest have looked significantly better than their record shows in my opinion.
It's not must win territory at all but with a rough start and the schedule starting to lighten up I think FlyQuest are going to go on a bit of a run here. They almost have to in my eyes. They've played pretty well in their losses including that super weird game against TSM. It's a bit of a leap of faith because these two teams are basically even to the naked eye but I'm going three units on FlyQuest to get this done and start solidifying themselves as a playoff roster.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -119 (3 units)
Golden Guardians should take care of this. CLG actually look like they've been playing together for many months already even with new member Ruin. Wiggily has been excellent. Do I think this team is all the sudden a playoff squad? Probably not. I think it's just a strong start and that this team is likely playing closer to it's ceiling. I'm not sure how much room they have to grow but I do know they look competitive right now.
UPDATE: The more I think about how these teams approach things I actually thinkg GG's macro should be more than enough to take care of CLG.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians -185 (2.5 units)
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Parlays:
I'll be mixing and matching in groups of two, three, or four the NA slate today. Combine these four matches in their permutations. I'm a unit each on the two teams and half on the three and four teams.
Liquid ML
Cloud 9 ML
FlyQuest ML
Golden Guardians ML
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