Friday, June 14, 2019

Betting: June 15th - 16th (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS, others)

We get ready to head into the second full week and first true full slate with a lot of the smaller leagues and LMS now in swing. 

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 4


This should be an awesome match between two of the hottest teams in Korea! While Griffin and SK Telecom might define the methodical, deliberate, high level macro strategy that Korea has become known for over the years, Kingzone and Afreeca are bucking the trend. It's not that it hasn't been done before but this kind of uptempo, priority play hasn't been at the top of the ladder in the LCK in a long time. 

These two teams are playing with blazing fast pace but I think it's important to put this into perspective because seeing five total kills at twenty minutes might not feel that way to the average viewer. Both of these teams are performing damn near perfect priority play between their junglers and their lanes. What I mean by that is the lanes manage minions, damage on opponents, ultimates, avoiding damage, timing summoners (like TP), and stacking waves to seemingly always be first to help their jungler on an invade or a dragon. This doesn't always result in kills but it's a back and forth dance in leverage that allows you to have superior numbers and positioning for various objectives. It's actually beautiful to watch once you're aware of whats happening. The strategic level in Korea as a region right now is unbelievable it's just a matter of whether or not the players are going to be able to hang at the international level but that's a separate point for a separate time.

I think these two teams are very close to even. Slight edge to Kingzone as they've made fewer mistakes over the course of the season. Both teams are exceptional priority-focused teams which, I'll admit isn't how I'd imagined Kingzone would play with this roster construction but here we are. I think Afreeca have the edge in both solo lanes and in the jungle but they have the edge in the bottom lane by a good margain. As I mentioned what's fascinating to me is that Kingzone are playing this style this well with players that you'd think struggled with this sort of thing. It's impressive. 

I'm going with Afreeca here for a few reasons. First of all I think both teams are very even and both are playing at a ridiculously high level right now. Both are hot, both have faced strong competition, both have shattered world class defenses as well. Second, I'm not going to say that Kingzone haven't faced solo laners and junglers that are this good, they certainly have faced some good ones, but not ones that play on Afreeca the way they're playing right now. Third is that I just have more faith in the top side of the map which is a bit more important right now. Fourth, the line value is tremendous for Afreeca in what I'm calling a game that should probably be Kingzone -120 / Afreeca +100 or something like that. 

I'm going to be two units on the underdog Freecs here. I think this match could go either way and while I think it's likely we get three games, which is why I bet that, I think we're getting really good odds on Afreeca sweeping. With two explosive, uptempo teams like this either could run the other over, the difference is we're getting +365 vs -108. Anything could happen as both of these teams have yet to face anyone that's quite as good at their own game as each other. I'm hoping these two redefine the metagame in Korea and the other teams are forced to learn because of it. These two could be the catalyst that exercises Korea's early game muscles regardless of whether either makes it to the world stage themselves.

Moneyline: Afreeca +189 (2 units)

Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -152 (2 units)

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +116 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Afreeca 2-0 @ +365 (0.25 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -106 (0.25 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -106 (0.25 units)




I've talked a lot about being sure SK Telecom will turn it around soon and that they're just shaking off the rust from a break. I've also talked about how not all of their problems can be attributed to that effect. This is about the time when teams in this situation start to get back into form. Unfortunatley for SK Telecom they've got a tough schedule this week losing to Kingzone yesterday, facing Sandbox tomorrow, and DAMWON and Griffin next week. This is an absolute nightmare spot part of the schedule for them. The reason I mention this is that I think we need to at least consider the possibility that, with an improved region, especially the middle tier teams, that SK Telecom could potentially dig themselves into such a deep hole that it'd be really challenging to get out. They're currently 1-2 in match score, 4-5 in games. I don't think it's inconceivable for them to lose their next three matches, and to lose two out of three I'd consider fairly likely. Just some food for thought. Don't completely rule out that this team could be sitting at 1-5 at the end of next week.

This matchup is fascinating. The linear, but creative Sandbox faces an SK Telecom team that's been showing up, in my opinion, unprepared for it's matches and still doing pretty well. SKT have reverted back to their "proactive defense" model, similar to Griffin albeit a little less clean. While this team is certainly capable of flipping a switch and turning up the tempo, they certainly seem content to just make people outplay them at this point. Ahhh classic SK Telecom! The thing is, Sandbox is a dangerous team to do that against.

SK Telecom should win this match and get back into form. They have a significantly stronger bottom lane and their solo laners have been performing well enough even though they've been poor relative to their respective careers. Haru actually looked pretty good in relief of Clid against Kingzone but both could be fine albeit a bit outclassed by OnFleek. I'm of the thought that, at some point, this Sandbox bottom lane is going to get punished. I also think that SK Telecom start to turn the corner. They haven't been a bad team they've just looked unprepared and are playing very uninspired. Keep in mind that they're still beating people, including taking a game off of both Kingzone and Afreeca.

I think SK Telecom do win this match but I was really hoping we'd get better odds. At this number the book is saying they expect an SKT 2-0, as a matter of fact that's the favored outcome at +145 (counting the -1.5). I think the value is in Sandbox here but I can't willingly bet into the potential of this SK Telecom team. I'm going to pass this game and just enjoy it. I might put each moneyline as part of some parlays, we'll see.


No wager

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 3 Day 5



Kinda wanna take a shot on the Vici +1.5 but I'm just gonna pass for now.

No wager


(Rookie is on leave indefinitely for family reasons. In his place is LDL mid Forge. Invictus have also brought back Baolan for this match.)

This line has been all the hell over the place. It opened at +110 and as soon as Rookie was ruled out jumped all the way up to as high as +490 in some places. Once Baolan was announced this afternoon it settled back to +390 where I was able to get in cheap on the moneyline as a soft hedge. Spoiler alert I know....

I'm on EDG -1.5 here for three units (I got in Thursday night). EDG are in form and ready to dominate the LPL right now and with this Invictus lineup going through more changes in a couple weeks than it has in two years it's got to be wearing on the players. That said I think there is a chance they rally. We talked about it a lot on the podcast but Invictus play a style that has razor thin margains. Timed out roams, skirmishes, baits, individual outplays. All of these things require not only impressive individual players but very practiced and specific timing. We saw with Lucas, while he was in, that things just weren't quite clicking. He was always a little behind or would force when he knew he was suppoed to have been there making the play earlier but missed his window. When you play this style, like IG does, it's very high variance if it's not perfect. Lucas struggled. For all I know Lucas could be a hell of a great player but he didn't look it in these games because of this reason. I'm wondering if we'll get the same with Forge. 

I have one unit on the IG moneyline just because the price was right but I fully expect EDG to sweep this.

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -137 (3 units)

Moneyline: Invictus +390 (1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 2

(unlisted: G2 -800 vs Vitality +450)

Splyce look to be in form despite a close match against Schalke 04 this afternoon. I'm not worried about them against ExceL but I must admit I am tempted by these odds. Pass for now.

No Wager

It'd be easy to talk about how bad Vitality looked today and we'll get to that but I actually think Rogue looked quite good and seem to be improving more and more every week. On the cast I spoke about it but I expect both Excel and Rogue to be a couple wins better each creating a more competitive middle and bottom of the table in Europe. That said, I do think SK Gaming have had a really tough schedule so far facing Fnatic, Schalke 04, and G2, in my opinion all but one of the top four teams. They're a solid team that got smashed by Fnatic and G2 but that's no shame. I see SK Gaming sort of as the gatekeepers for the playoff spot even if they don't get it themselves. They're likely the best of the non-playoff teams right now. They should win this but with Rogue looking good and the line a tad too high for my liking I'm going to just pass this game.

No Wager

Another pass from me. Boring I know. I actually might change my mind and fire on Origen but we'll see. I think Origen take this but I don't like the odds. I also don't like the odds quite enough to take a shot on Misfits either.

No Wager

This line opened at Schalke +204 and I kind of liked them there. I still do like this current number after their performance today but I think Fnatic play late game really well... the thing is Fnatic can just run you over too. If I had to bet this it'd be Schalke but I'll pass.

No Wager

My original idea this weekend was to fire on Vitality as long as G2 won today. At some point G2 are going to drop some games and while timing the upsets is hard, if the odds are going to be +450 every week we only need to hit a couple to make it profitable. I was excited to take Vitality but with how individually poor this team has looked from a mechanical standpoint I'm skeptical about how much they actually practiced during their "boot camp." The players don't just look bad but they're making mechanical errors that professionals should be able to do in their sleep and it's concerning. For once I'm not blaming the YamatoCannon after his first couple splits (the "Peter Laviolette Effect"). This is his players not executing at a professional level. I'm passing this. As a matter of fact just take G2 UNDER 29:00ish when it opens.

O/U: UNDER 30:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 3 Day 1


I'm going to put a half unit on FlyQuest to beat Liquid because as good as Liquid is, I can't look at a team that's as good as FlyQuest at these odds and say no. Is it likely? No but it's more likely than these odds implicate.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +268 (0.5 units)

I'm impressed with OpTic. They've added teamfighting to their arsenal, something they haven't had in a calendar year. They're also playing really well around Crown in 1-3-1 setups and his Twisted Fate has been potent. That said, I think they're not only due for at least a little regression but that teams now have some film on them and could punish this, especially in drafts. I expect Cloud 9 to have a game plan or to just take TF and Ryze away and make Crown beat you on something else. He's certainly capable but I like Cloud 9's odds against a more predictable mid champion. I also think they're just the better team overall by a good margain even right now.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 (2 units)

We talked about this one on the podcast. It feels kinda gross but I actually think CLG might be the side here. They've looked really sharp and Ruin seems to have blended right in so they've skipped over that awkward getting to know each other phase ("Can you guys just call me better Darshan?") I'm just going to pass, I can't do it but either side is justified here if you have a strong feeling one way or the other go for it.

No wager (lean CLG)

Call it a hunch but I have a feeling TSM are going to drop this. I think Clutch is probably the best of the non-playoff teams and while I have TSM a full tier ahead of them I don't think it's unreasonable to take a flier on Clutch here. They have a better chance at taking a best of one than the odds imply against TSM.

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +238 (0.5 units)

Listen to the podcast for this one but man what a sad timeline. Some collection of the academy team and starters will be here. Bang and Soligo got destroyed in academy this week. I don't want to see so many good players' careers end in this fashion but until further notice I'm waiting for 100 Thieves to show me any signs of life.

No wager

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