Long story short I'm going to be on the road for a wedding this weekend but I still wanted to provide you guys with my selections. Again I'm still sorting through a lot at the moment and have fallen behind on my stats but they'll be updated sometime next week. We're down for the week.
I went into more detail on some of these because I found them much more interesting than others. Probably has something to do with the stakes too ;-)
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LCK Summer 2019 - Week 3 Days 3, 4, and 5
Arguably the two best top trios in the world battling against each other after both starting off red hot. GET THE POPCORN READY!
This one should be an absolute slugfest. Two of the best solo lane tandems in the world duking it out, two young junglers that are playing at an otherworldly level, two bot lanes that are often forgotten amidst their elite company in the top half. Afreeca and Sandbox have even faced the exact same schedule! So how do we break this down?
First of all, Sandbox will have side selection advantage which could either be the tiebreaker or not matter at all with how creative these teams can get in the draft. I'm not factoring that in for that exact reason but thought it was worth mentioning. The top lane matchup, perhaps the most fascinating on the map, between arguably the two best top laners in the league could go either way. You could point to the fact that Summit has only played four champions or that Kiin has played five Aatrox games but these two are elite and to attempt to lazily use one of those as a narrtive would be stupid. The same goes for mid lane, the same goes for jungle. The bottom lanes are where this gets a little spicy and potentially abuseable. Both Senan and Joker have heavily relied on playing tank supports like Tahm Kench, Nautilus, and Galio this split. Both have played Lux as well and I'm sure have plenty more in their arsenals but I'd expect this pool to be pinched for these drafts which will make both teams have a bit of a new look. Interestingly, both supports tend to be the weakest players on their teams in these current iterations. Not to say they're weak by any stretch just that they're the most mistake prone of the ten players.
I think this matchup is even if you just look player to player and even team to team as they both have basically the same record against the same schedule. I'm going with Afreeca though and the reason is that I think they're better at playing with and around priority and at establishing it in the draft. Sandbox are playing a bit closer to the style of Griffin, absorbing early pressure and turning it back on their opponents albeit somewhat less precisely than Griffin does. I look at this Afreeca team and how they completely ran over a nearly immaculate defensive team in Griffin in a game, and utterly smashed Kingzone, a fellow priority focused team. I was going to go a unit on the dog or nothing in this and just enjoy the match (which I will anyway) but I'm going to be firing for two units on Afreeca ML. It's not slight against Sandbox at all I just think Afreeca have the solo laners to match them and have been the better tempo team which is how Sandbox have lost games. You could argue that Afreeca have punted a lead or been sloppy setting up and I'd buy that but this game will ultimately come down to who makes fewer mistakes, I'll take the offensive team in that spot almost any day.
Should be a great one with how great these two squads look right now!
Moneyline: Afreeca -101 (2 units)
First of all, Sandbox will have side selection advantage which could either be the tiebreaker or not matter at all with how creative these teams can get in the draft. I'm not factoring that in for that exact reason but thought it was worth mentioning. The top lane matchup, perhaps the most fascinating on the map, between arguably the two best top laners in the league could go either way. You could point to the fact that Summit has only played four champions or that Kiin has played five Aatrox games but these two are elite and to attempt to lazily use one of those as a narrtive would be stupid. The same goes for mid lane, the same goes for jungle. The bottom lanes are where this gets a little spicy and potentially abuseable. Both Senan and Joker have heavily relied on playing tank supports like Tahm Kench, Nautilus, and Galio this split. Both have played Lux as well and I'm sure have plenty more in their arsenals but I'd expect this pool to be pinched for these drafts which will make both teams have a bit of a new look. Interestingly, both supports tend to be the weakest players on their teams in these current iterations. Not to say they're weak by any stretch just that they're the most mistake prone of the ten players.
I think this matchup is even if you just look player to player and even team to team as they both have basically the same record against the same schedule. I'm going with Afreeca though and the reason is that I think they're better at playing with and around priority and at establishing it in the draft. Sandbox are playing a bit closer to the style of Griffin, absorbing early pressure and turning it back on their opponents albeit somewhat less precisely than Griffin does. I look at this Afreeca team and how they completely ran over a nearly immaculate defensive team in Griffin in a game, and utterly smashed Kingzone, a fellow priority focused team. I was going to go a unit on the dog or nothing in this and just enjoy the match (which I will anyway) but I'm going to be firing for two units on Afreeca ML. It's not slight against Sandbox at all I just think Afreeca have the solo laners to match them and have been the better tempo team which is how Sandbox have lost games. You could argue that Afreeca have punted a lead or been sloppy setting up and I'd buy that but this game will ultimately come down to who makes fewer mistakes, I'll take the offensive team in that spot almost any day.
Should be a great one with how great these two squads look right now!
Moneyline: Afreeca -101 (2 units)
I actually think this is winnable for DAMWON. Kingzone haven't struggle with much but when they have it was against elite solo lanes and DAMWON certainly have that. My concern is that DAMWON have made a lot of mistakes, some big, some small even in their wins this season and Kingzone have been downright ruthless in punishing. Kingzone should be able to force errors out of DAMWON and win this series but I wouldn't be shocked if DAMWON took a game or even won this. Still I think the correct and most likely outcome is a Kingzone 2-0 so we'll take the -1.5 @ +108 for a single unit. Kingzone are the real deal folks.
Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +108 (1 unit)
Another fascinating matchup as Korea keeps delivering this weekend! It feels wrong to see SK Telecom as +228 dogs. They honestly haven't even looked that bad it's just that that look awful compared to what they were at MSI. However, this is a decidedly different team than that one at the moment. SKT don't appear to have any kind of plan to me and if they do it's really convoluted, enough so that I'm not seeing it. It's not for lack of trying. Clid and Haru both have attempted to get the ball rolling in these games to mixed results. SKT aren't just rolling over and dying. The real problem has been in the drafts/gameplan. SKT are just showing up and playing and I don't know if it's an MSI hangover or that they feel they can get a Worlds spot while coasting but they're now 1-4 in matches. Three of those matches, Sandbox, Kingzone, and Afreeca, now look forgivable given the form those teams are currently in but punting a game to Jin Air and playing a downright weird series against DAMWON, a good but inconsistent team, are cause for alarm.
I said it after their first few series that this wasn't just a hangover. Kkoma and the coaching staff have a history of weird drafts and that's never stopped SKT from being a great team because as weird as the drafts might be they always had a definitive plan, even if it's a suboptimal one (protect the Lucian anyone?). I don't know what SKT is thinking in some of these drafts. Lulu mid against Karthus jungle and no DPSer on your team besides Sona? Oi....
All of this negative stuff said I do think SKT will get things together. This team is simply too talented not to it's just a matter of when. Unfortunately for SKT I think Griffin are not an opponent to "get right" against. This is one of the best teams in the world regardless of what their record says (watch the tape) and they came out with a completely different look this morning going all in on early game, abusing the broken Yuumi, and running Pyke at ADC. Griffin are confident, super disciplined, and for lack of better terms just do what SKT do better than SKT.
The counter argument is that SKT destroyed Griffin in finals and perhaps some nerves combined with SKT "getting right" is enough here. On the podcast I talked about how these teams played close series during the regular season which is true... but have all been Griffin 2-0's except for one Griffin 2-1 last season since they joined the league in LCK Summer 2018.
Would it surpise me to see SKT show up for this match? No. The thing is even if they're in form again I'd take Griffin. If you haven't read the last two Griffin matches you can go back and do that. I gush about them plenty there. This team is unbelievably good and while it feels wrong not to take SKT at these odds I think, in this case, it's actually right. There is a good argument for the OVER 2.5 maps played at +126. I think that's reasonable but I'm sticking with Griffin to 2-0.
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ -106 (1 unit)
This matchup is actually really interesting as a bettor but not particularly as an analyst. These two teams are pretty bad. I know Hanwha took a game off Gen.G this morning but if you watched that series the truth of the matter is that neither of those teams deserved to win that one. IT WAS UGLY! I actually am done with Gen.G even after that win this morning. They had no understanding of how to operate basic power picks (Karthus no ult for how long?!?). Their absolute disregard for the early game is beyond disrespectful... anyway I digress but partially because I think it's important to know that Hanwha shouldn't celebrate any part of that season. It should be cause for concern that you can't punish GP + Azir with Xin and get up in the other junglers face.... but I digress again.
I'm actually doing it. I'm taking Jin Air. These two teams are even to me, maybe slight edge to Hanwha. Hanwha isn't -476 better than anybody in the LCK including Jin Air. The value we're getting here is absolutely obscene and despite losing, Jin Air look like a team with a new identity and they've been establishing leads even if they end up just giving them away. I think they can get one here. Ask yourself this. Is the bad version of SKT we've seen better than Hanwha Life? Because Jin Air should have 2-0'd SKT (again go watch that series). I can't believe I'm betting on Jin Air but this is obscene and the value is too good. As a matter of fact we're going all the way here and betting the exact scores and the +1.5 at plus money as well. Jin Air can win this series and this is going to be their Super Bowl. They've actually looked pretty good relative to themselves recently and Hanwha are nothing special.
Moneyline: Jin Air +309 (1 unit)
Spread: Jin Air +1.5 @ +103 (2 units)
Prop: Exact Jin Air 2-1 @ +467 (0.5 units)
Prop: Exact Jin Air 2-0 @ +535 (0.5 units)
I put this bet in on Monday before Gen.G's horrific showing this morning because I was so sure of it. Listen folks, Afreeca have a very reasonable chance to win the LCK this split. This isn't a fluke it's real and unless we see a catastrophic breakdown they'll be in the conversation. Gen.G are not only not that great, but their playstyle is the worst possible thing to play against Afreeca. If Afreeca can obliterate a Griffin defense what are they going to do to Gen.G? This is easy money. I'm limited currently but feel free to load up on this one my PICK OF THE WEEK
PICK OF THE WEEK
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 @ +128 (Book Max 2.75 units)
Prop: Exact Afreeca 2-0 @ -137 (Book Max 4 units)
Prop: Gen.G to win a map? NO @ -112 (2 units)
Total 8.75 units wagered
Similarly to Gen.G I'm completely done with this KT Rolster team. They might improve over the course of the season but until then we're going to get at least some value in them as dogs. I know Sandbox aren't perfectly clean but they're doing a pretty good Griffin impression right now and while KT have the players to hang in the solo lanes they simply don't have the team chops to hang with the current iteration of Sandbox. After the abysmal series we saw from Hanwha/Gen.G this morning AND the abysmal series we saw from KT/Gen.G on Sunday, I'm willing to say that those three teams should probably have reduced expectations and that they'll be the bottom four along with Jin Air. KT can get leads but they don't know what to do with them, and when they get behind they're clueless. They're like a slightly better version of Jin Air with some hall of fame players (so sad :(*). I weirdly hope that I'm wrong but Sandbox are legit and should stomp KT Rolster and considering the gap between these two I actually think we're getting a slight value at -123.
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ -123 (Book Max 3.5 units)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 4 Days 4, 5, and 6
I'm still hesitant to trust LNG/Snake. They're doing all the right things and appear to be emulating FunPlus with how they're focusing heavily on new midlaner Plex. Here's the thing with LNG. They might be real. There is a chance Plex was the missing piece and that this team will be a contender but I doubt it. LNG have had a relatively easy schedule. Their hardest match was against the bad version of Invictus we saw in week one without Baolan and a lethargic rest of the map. Credit where it's due for beating IG but other than that they've gone 2-1 vs WE, 2-0 vs a disappointing Dominus team, and 2-1 against the back to reality JDG.
Chris had a really good read on the podcast and it reminded me of two points. If you change their title back to Snake, do you trust LNG? Perhaps that's why I'm so reserved because I've seen this movie before. It also made me realize that sometimes it's better not to have that preconception. LNG are doing a lot of things well. Sometimes it's sloppy but they have the right idea and they're firing on all of their cylinders right now. BiliBili on the other hand have faced the elite EDG where they lost 0-2, an up and coming OMG squad where they won 2-1, lost 0-2 to the FunPlus Revenge Tour, and swiftly stomped Victory 5 in their first game. BiliBili have had a much harder schedule. We're getting A TON of value in BiliBili here and even if they haven't looked quite as sharp as their Spring selves I think this team is going to hit an easier part of their schedule here that starts with LNG.
I absolutely love BiliBili here. The moneyline, the +1.5 @ -145, the 2-0 @ +368. This is a computer model looking at BiliBili's 4-5 game record vs LNG's blistering 8-2 start. Regression goes both ways ladies and gents. Enjoy it!
Moneyline: BiliBili +197 (Book Max 2 units)
Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -145 (Book Max 4 units)
Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +368 (Book Max 0.75 units)
Prop: BBG to win at least one map? Y @ -145 (Max 3 units)
Prop: LNG to win at least one map? N @ +414 (0.5 units)
It's been announced that Hope will be playing ADC this in place of iBoy. The line has since moved to EDG -500 the -1.5 is now @ -141.
I don't think this changes much to be honest. Hope played some last split and while he only recorded two wins in his seven starts it wasn't necessarily because of poor performance on his part. Team WE look like a team in shambles right now and it's not just because of the difficult schedule they've faced either. Something isn't clicking and I think they're trying to discover a new identity at the wrong time against good teams. EDG should be able to take care of business here. Hope isn't a newbie and will be familiar with the stage and while he might not be as good as iBoy, the ADC on this squad has rarely mattered. I'm also looking at that top lane matchup and Jinoo's mouth has to be watering at the chance to obliterate Poss.
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -141 (2 units)
A bit of a tale of two messes here. On one side we have Vici who, while remaining way more energetic than we're used to, is still a pretty bad team. On the other we have the reality sinking back into JDG. Their miracle run to finals was exactly that. Again this team isn't good but they should be better than the true bottom dwelling teams like Vici. I think JDG probably win this series but I don't feel strongly either way. The correct play here is probably Vici +1.5 at +116 but I'm just going to abstain. This match stinks.
No wager
I was originally a bit skeptical of this one but the more I think about it, TheShy is going to have a really difficult time solo carrying this series because Knight should completely smash Forge. It's nothing against him or anything but Knight is just ridiculous and without Rookie there I'm feeling like TOP ML is an excellent value and the -1.5 is outstanding. I think a TOP 2-0 is the most likely outcome albeit not by much. IG could take a game here but I think 369 and Xx are so good at neutralizing top lane advantages that they should be able to neuter IG.
Moneyline: TOP -156 (Max: 2 units)
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +169 (Max: 0.75 unit)
I know Victory 5 are coming off of wins against a struggling Invictus and the bad Vici gaming but I think Victory 5 are more or less in the same tier as those teams. OMG look like they're primed to make a run for a playoff spot. Adding a secondary carry in Curse has done wonders for this team because their opposition can't just focus on shutting down Icon anymore. I actually think OMG are going to end up a playoff team. I like them more than say JDG. This is looks like a huge value to me. I actually think OMG should be favored. We're going to take the OMG moneyline and the OMG 2-0 (in the form of V5 to win a map? NO @ +252)
Moneyline: OMG +102 (2 units)
Prop: Victory 5 to win a map? NO @ +252 (0.5 units)
We had some stinkers on the schedule for the LPL this weekend but this should be awesome. I'm leaning RNG because I think Karsa can break this game open himself but I also think it's reasonable to stay out of the way of the FunPlus Revenge Tour. I'm just going to pop some more popcorn and watch this one as well.
Prop: Over 2.5 maps played @ +100 (1 unit)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 3 Days 1 and 2
In Europe this week I'm taking a few long shots in ExceL vs Fnatic and Rogue vs G2. This is strictly trying to pick a value dog. G2 won't go undefeated in all likelihood. I think G2 vs Fnatic should be interesting and you could justify either side but I'd lean G2. Schalke vs Origen is also an inflection point. My bigger selection for the weekend is going to be Schalke +122 against Misfits. I'll be firing for a few units here. Misfits are being tremendously overrated right now just because they're 2-2 and Schalke should be a playoff team. This is free. Vitality is also a team to watch this weekend. Can they salvage this season?
Moneyline: Excel +401 vs Fnatic (0.25 units)
Moneyline: Rogue +397 vs G2 (0.25 units)
Moneyline: Schalke 04 +122 vs Misfits (1.5 units)
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Moneyline: Excel +401 vs Fnatic (0.25 units)
Moneyline: Rogue +397 vs G2 (0.25 units)
Moneyline: Schalke 04 +122 vs Misfits (1.5 units)
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North American LCS Summer 2019 Week 4 Days 1 and 2
A couple interesting games on the NA slate but mostly duds. NA feels kind of solved. I'll admit I'm a bit gunshy after being obliterated in NA last week but I still like a few picks here. Golden Guardians vs TSM I think GG are a bit undervalued. These two teams are equal to me. Optic should destroy Echo Fox and -200 is honestly something I'll pay even in best of ones. I think OpTic are real. Speaking of Optic being real I love Optic against TSM on Saturday. CLG vs FlyQuest is a huge inflection point for both of these teams, sadly I'm leaning CLG but we'll see how the line moves.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +150 vs TSM (1 unit)
Moneyline: Optic +156 vs TSM (1 unit)
Moneyline: Optic -200 vs Echo Fox (MAX: 1.5 units)
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I have a ton of parlays mixing all the regions but unfortunately I've run out of time before having to hit the road. I'm sure you noticed as the posts got briefer and briefer :-)
ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND AND GOOD LUCK!
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