Betting: January 23rd (LCK, LPL)

LCK Spring 2019 - January 23rd:

Both of these teams are in a very similar spot. Veteran teams with great players figuring themselves out in this new look Korea. They're both figuring out which rosters work, how they fit into the meta, and unlike a team like Gen.G have shown a willingness to skirmish and know how to punch back. Simply put these two teams have the right idea but they're figuring things out and I think they'll both be fine eventually. So how does that play out for us as bettors?

I kinda like the Kingzone moneyline here. To me these teams are essentially the same right now so that's a lot of moneyline value if you cap them the same way I do. KT have the stronger individual players which is perhaps a reason to like them but that's too rich a price to pay for two teams that are still sort of unknowns. For the time being it will just be a strong lean toward Kingzone ML.

No wager (lean Kingzone ML)

(UPDATE: PapaSmithy made a good point on the cast that I looked into and he was right. When two veteran teams are playing each other there is TYPICALLY the old school LCK style of low kills, high control games. TAKE UNDERS in these games. It also made me look into the next game, which does not apply....READ AHEAD)

(UPDATE: I'll be adding 1.5 units EACH to the OVER 19.5 total kills. For some reason the line has moved to that. Griffin alone averages 16.8 kills per game themselves.)

Griffin should demolish Hanwha Life here. I'm aware that HLE have surprised a lot of people and look pretty solid but they've also played KT and Afreeca, two teams that are struggling to find themselves at the moment. Griffin are just on another level at the moment and I'd be surprised if HLE were the ones to knock them down a peg. It should be noted that this opened at -2000 but is down to -1429 (and -303 on the handicap). Both of these numbers are too rich for me but I may include the -1.5 maps in a parlay. I'm half tempted to take the under 31:00 as all but one of Griffin's games so far have come in WAY under (the exception was a 31:01 victory....) but I think HLE are going to be game for this series and look to have a good understanding of how to play the game right now.

PROP (O/U): Map 1 OVER 19.5 total kills @ -119 (1.5 units)

PROP (O/U): Map 2 OVER 19.5 total kills @ -125 (1.5 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 - January 23rd

I wrote in my team notes for Team WE that they need to "Get with the times." This team honestly looked awful against SinoDragon who, while they beat Snake in a 2-0 that was much closer than the score shows, still appear to be one of those middling teams AT BEST. If these types of bulldozer, deathball, zero discipline teams can run over Team WE who is still playing like its 2017 then I honestly don't expect them to finish anywhere outside of the bottom four this split. Even the bad LPL teams can just group and team fight well. Suning are slowly gelling and even though they punted the first game of the season to Vici I think this team is only going to get better and better.

The bottom four positions are so heavily in favor or Suning as well as the jungle and stylistic matchup that this should be an easy 2-0.  These are as good of odds as we're going to get for what I assume to be a bottom of the table team in WE against a soon to be top of the table team in Suning. I know it looks a tad aggressive with how wild the LPL has been this split but Suning should be able to take care of business pretty easily here. We're simply not going to get odds like this on Suning against bad teams moving forward.

Handicapped: Suning Gaming -1.5 maps @ -145 (2.5 units)

Much like Suning I've got high hopes for FunPlus eventually. They're a little rough around the edges right now but this is a strong squad with a lot of upside and I'm assuming they'll already be improved with a week of tape. JDG look like another one of these bulldozer type teams. Their macro is honestly pretty terrible based on the limited sample size we see. They don't set up their plays they just kinda press the go button. I expect they'll be somewhere in the large middle of the table of LPL teams by seasons end. 

I'm not very confident in it which is why the wager will be light but I like FunPlus here in a similar situation to Suning. JDG are much better than Team WE but I think these odds are just about right considering the volatility in the LPL and that FunPlus are still figuring things out. Also factor in that JDG actually dropped a game to a Rogue Warriors team that I'm assuming will finish towards the bottom of the table as well. Not a lot of value necessarily but we'll go half a unit on the sweep.

Handicapped: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ +161(0.5 units)

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Parlay (2): Suning ML + FunPlus ML @ -122 (1 unit)