Betting: January 22nd (LPL)

LPL Spring 2019 - January 22nd:

Both of these teams are a lot like a bulldozer. There isn't a lot of tact or finesse but they just kinda roll around deathballing and it works. Their macro is poor, they sometimes lose track of objectives and what they should be doing after won fights or to get back in a game. However Snake are just so unbelievably good at team fighting (still, years later) that after rewatching their games I'm almost willing to break ties in favor of them while this meta is still in place against teams that have poor macro. To me the way to beat Snake is to not team fight Snake or to split them apart. SinoDragon haven't shown the ability to do that. 

SinoDragon got utterly bodied by EDG while Snake actually beat EDG after losing game one. SinoDragon 2-0'd WE who I think might be the worst team in the LPL this split or at least bottom of the table. Snake have played close, hard fought series against top 6 contenders FunPlus and EDG and even won one of them. I think it's dangerous to put too much on the handicap here because when you have brawling teams that have poor macro random losses can happen but I do think Snake are the better team. I wrote, regarding SinoDragon, "They'll basically be a "stat check" for people. If you have good macro and good enough players to not lose they'll beat themselves." I think Snake have good enough players, even if I'm not a huge fan of Mala, and I think while Snake's macro isn't the greatest they're just so good in this rough and tumble type games and always have been.

I know this is rich but I love Snake here and I'll be putting a half unit on the handicap even though I don't like doing so when you have two messy, brawly teams battling it out because Snake are just built to play in this kind of meta. I'll be high on them until the metagame changes or people show the ability to work around them.

Moneyline: Snake -270 (3 units)

Handicapped: Snake -1.5 maps @ +112 (0.5 units)

UPDATE: RNG Starters via Twitter: AmazingJ, Karsa, Xiaohu, Wink, Ming

RNG lost to the new look Suning Gaming, a team that a lot of people think are the best of the non-RNG/IG teams in the LPL, in week one but they were playing a top laner that they signed the day before and with Wink at ADC while Uzi is on medical rest. If you didn't watch this game it would be easy to say "NEW TEAMS SO GUD BRO!?!" but with two subs, especially one that was brand new, it's hard to put a lot of stock into this game. I actually think that regardless of whether or not we see Tianci again or Wink, that Karsa alone could potentially solo carry this game. During the Suning series he was absolutely unbelievable but his lanes were just too far down and Suning are too strong a team for him to do it all himself. 

LGD on the other hand looked abysmal against BiliBili. Now granted BiliBili are a solid team but LGD just look like a team without any fundamentals. It's almost like they're just playing solo queue. There were multiple times, while behind, that they chased kills instead of taking a tower or going to baron after winning a fight. They have no sense of when impending plays are happening, and to me their individual players are mediocre at best. It almost seems like this is just a team of fan favorites. I was a bit intrigued by this team before the season started but they were utterly dominated in skirmishes AND macro against a BBG team who's skirmishing and micro isn't exactly strong. 

I feel like Karsa could solo carry this series. If Xiaohu can pitch in I just don't see LGD having a chance here. LGD look like a bottom two or three team to me along with Team WE and Rogue Warriors and maybe SinoDragon or V5. The "B" team should be able to take care of business here and if we end up seeing.

UPDATE: With AmazingJ starting up top I feel very confident in RNG to take care of business here.

Moneyline: RNG -256 (3 units)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ +126 (1 unit)

--------------------------------------------------------

Parlay (2): Snake ML + RNG ML (1.5 units)

Parlay (2): Snake -1.5 + RNG -1.5 (0.5 units)