LCK Spring 2019 January 18th Schedule:
(ignore the red my screen cap thing was bugged... but that does happen to be the pick)
In my Pre-Season Power Rankings for the LCK I had Sandbox Gaming last and in their own D Tier for a number of reasons. I had Gen.G 6th and in the B Tier. While I don't think this Gen.G team is going to be great out the gate necessarily I do think Sandbox is just going to be awful. I also think Gen.G are being underrated a bit here simply because they lost to DAMWON the other day and public perception from their poor Worlds performance. This team fixed a few of their problems and I think Peanut is an EXCELLENT addition. I see Gen.G figuring themselves out for awhile and then ending the split strong but I just can't see them losing to Sandbox here.
I've been burned by Gen.G a lot. They lost me more money than any team last year but I loved their moves and I think Sandbox is just going to be so weak that just on player quality alone I think Gen.G should easily sweep this series. I'm not sure the nature of the games because Gen.G could be a new look team with Peanut and not always play to scale but I'd imagine they're more than content to do that game plan so I'm avoiding the O/U but loving the side. Biggest bet of the year so far and my first five unit hammer play.
Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -143 (5 units)
(ignore the red highlight screen cap bugged)
The more I looked at this game the more I found myself weirdly wanting to bet Afreeca. I have these teams a tier apart but directly next to each other in my Pre-Season Power Rankings but I think Afreeca are an excellent team with the tools to take it to SKT. One of SKT's strengths is their laning prowess and Afreeca can actually match them for the most part. I think the real tie breaker here is SKT's bottom lane. For those that didn't watch their match the other day, Teddy and Mata put on a clinic. Now that was against Route and Kellin who are a far cry from Aiming and (possibly) Jelly but SKT should be able to leverage a bottom lane advantage and their individual laners and combinations on the top side of the map should be able to match Afreeca's formidable solo lanes and at least maintain control to scale here.
I wanted to take Afreeca because I think there is value there. I'm not sure they're this much worse than SKT yet but I also don't think it's likely SKT lose this. It wouldn't surprise me but it's definitely not likely. Light wagers on SKT here.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -227 (2 units)
Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +114 (0.5 units)
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LPL Spring 2019 - January 18th Schedule:
Victory Five is actually an amalgamation of a handful of solid individual performers from some of the bottom and middle tier LPL teams last season. Jinoo (LGD), Ben4 (iMay), Pepper (WE), Corn (TopSports and former SH Royal), Y4 (LGD and RNG backup ADC), Road (BiliBili), and newcomer Realey. A few of these player stand out to me, inparticular Y4 and Road who were surpisingly good on their respective teams last year. Those might remember Y4's famous bottom lane Orianna providing a nice boost to LGD's strong second half of the Summer.
All of this said I actually think TopSports are just going to roll this team. They had the unfortunate displeasure of facing IG in their first match but a lot of people that are more knowledgeable than I am about the LPL have this TopSports team finishing Top 4 this season. One analyst even had them #3 behind only RNG and IG. Look for them to get right here.
Handicapped: TopSports -1.5 maps @ -196 (4 units)
I'm not sure who the starters are going to be on Snake and I don't know much about the couple of new players but I do know that Snake had a strong "home field" advantage last year as they were one of the first teams with a home stadium for some of thos games. The "Snake Pit" in Chongquing. This match as well as Sunday's match against FunPlus are going to be being played at said Snake Pit and while I like EDG to win the series with the combination of strong roster and continuity from last year it wouldn't surprise me to see Snake take a game at home. I wanted to go heavy on this as Snake really trailed off in the Summer and it appeared that teams figure them out. If Flandre and SofM can't get things started then they tend to lose but I have no idea how the new players will impact this squad. IF we assume similar level to last year then I still like EDG for a small amount to 2-0 this just not as heavily as I would have if this wasn't in Chongqing.
Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -141 (1 unit)
Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -141 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): TopSports -1.5 maps @ -196 + EDG -1.5 maps @ -141 total @ +158 (0.5 units)
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LMS Spring 2019 - January 18th Schedule
I briefly wanted to mention the LMS. I didn't do too well with all the changeups in the Summer and I'm still unsure of a lot of these teams. I also haven't watched the region intently enough to know too much about momentum going into the season. I do know that this is a new look Flash Wolves team with only three returning members (Betty, ShiauC, and Hanabi). Hanabi played most of the reps during the Summer, ShiauC only played five games, and Betty played them all so there is some continuity here but the reason I'm bringing this up is because Hong Kong Attitude were actually significantly improved from Spring to Summer last year finishing in third in the split. HKA also retained three members in Gemini, Unified, and Kaiwing. They brought in Erssu (formerly Ikssu from KT Rolster, Afreeca, and Rebels Anarchy back in the day) and Cyeol who was a sub during the Summer. Ikksu actually returned to Challengers Korea so they'll be going with top laner 3z who played for Machi the past few years.
Alpha used to be Machi and appears to have completely cleaned house of everyone with their organization switch. No returning players or coaches. Dragon Gate acquired Team Afro's spot. These were two of the worst teams in a weakening region last year but they've also both cleaned house and return with entirely new players and coaching staffs.
The TL:DR on this is that I'll be staying away from the LMS until I can get some VODs to watch and get a stronger read on the region. There's just too many changes and I'm not in tune enough with that scene to know a lot of these players.
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LEC Spring 2019 - January 18th Schedule:
As I mentioned on League of Pr1m3's show last night I think this LEC day one slate is pretty chalk. If you're looking for potential upsets I kinda like Excel to beat Splyce but not sure that's really a great value considering how weak I expect that team to be and in fact it's more just an emphasis that I feel Splyce aren't that exciting. To me the only other likely upset would be Schalke over Vitality. These are two teams I have a tier apart but close in my power rankings at #2 and #4. You can tell yourself a story that Vitality struggle for a bit incorporating Mowgli but as I mentioned on the show last night I think the way Vitality play and carry themselves that he'll fit in just fine and be assimilated fairly quickly. The long shot is SK to defeat Fnatic. Fnatic with a new mid laner, SK Gaming with three returning members of MAD Lions from EU's amateur scene means you could build a narrative where they come in looking to prove something and already with some synergy but I'm not sure I buy it against a team of Fnatic's caliber. I do find it strange that Rogue is less likely to beat Misfits than SK to beat Fnatic. Perhaps a lot of money and high hopes for SK Gaming. You could also look at Origen who I think is being underrated slightly right now to defeat a G2 that will likely have some growing pains (if you believe in that narrative, I DO NOT).
The point being you could tell yourself a story where these upsets happen but I don't think it's likely and I don't think it's easy to predict which one will happen. I'm almost positive there will be at least one but I'm not confident enough in any of them to pick. (If you're a baller feel free to bet all five dogs for a light amount and profit off the odds but I won't be doing that)
I'll only be placing a couple light parlay bets in Europe on day one.
Parlay (2): Fnatic -370 + Misfits -417 @ -175 (1 unit)
Parlay (3): Fnatic -370 + Misfits -417 + G2 -208 @ +133 (0.5 units)
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