Sunday, January 20, 2019

Betting: January 21st (LPL)

LPL Spring 2019 - January 21st:



So I've rewatched a handful of LPL games and rewatched at minimum highlights from literally every single game in the LPL this morning and afternoon and took notes on my thoughts for each game including lineups. Here's the TL:DR on both of these teams:

  • OMG: "Strong individual plays, confident, aggressive. Lose sight of objectives/win conditions but significantly improved from last years OMG."
  • BiliBili: "Controlled, disciplined, heaavily Korean-style team just like last year. Will struggle against stronger early game teams but great macro and understanding of win conditions. 
Both of these teams looked good in their debuts this split but one had the victory and the other had to face Invictus so the question is whether or not macro or micro is going to win this series. OMG actually took it to Invictus especially in game one. I was honestly shocked at how confident and aggressive they looked but they seemed to struggle to convert their kills into much. They also had a poor understanding of how to play to their win conditions. Meanwhile BBG won their series against LGD in that exact fashion. LGD had awful macro in their game two, winning skirmishes and still unable to get a gold or turret advantage against BBG. 

I want to like the OMG +1.5 at these odds because I think they're a better team than LGD but I still think they're going to be a bottom half team even if improved this year. BiliBili look a lot more like their Spring split selves last year and while I don't think that's necessarily optimal right now I think they prey on teams like OMG. Where they struggle is against teams with strong individuals AND macro. This will be a no play by me but this series will actually tell us a lot about both of these teams. If BBG take this decisively then we can confidently assume they'll take care of business against these "wild" teams with poor macro. If OMG wins we'll learn that BBG can sometimes get run over and OMG can brute force their way to victories.

No wager


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Rogue Warriors probably should have won 2-1 vs JDG but against the much stronger FunPlus they got utterly destroyed. RW are kinda wild right now and don't know how to close a game so even if they jump out to an early lead I just can't see them closing against the best team in the league.

 I mean this is "free money" but the odds are so obscene that I'm not sure I'm going to mess with this. 30:00 is just short. If this was 31:00 I'd prolly take the double under here but I'll be abstaining from this one too. 

No wager


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