Thursday, January 24, 2019

Betting: January 25th-27th (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS, TCL)

LCK Spring 2019 January 25th-27th:


For as bad as KT Rolster look I think Jin Air are just the worst team in the LCK so this is just a matter of whether or not you think they're going to take some games here. To me KT Rolster look lost right now and this would be a spot to take the Jin Air +1.5 or ML. There is no way KT is -417 better than literally anybody in this league in their current state. That said I do think we're cooking in a bit of our expectations in that disappointment. We had medium hopes for this team and they've been pretty rough but hear me out. 

They've played HLE, DAMWON, and Kingzone, all respectable teams and in the case of HLE and DAMWON teams off to hot starts. KT completely destroyed Hanwha Life in game one of that series and haven't won a game since. So what's happening with this team? They're getting behind early in games most of the time. The one time they got ahead by a reasonable amount they shut the door fast and it was clinical. Jin Air have had the unfortunate pleasure of facing SKT and Griffin for their first two series so I don't want to completely rule them out yet but they look like they're playing the same League that Jin Air always does, slow, controlled, and scaling.

I'm going against the logic on this one. Anybody betting this series would tell you there is WAY WAY too much value in Jin Air at +291 and I'd agree with you but I can't in good spirit say that this Jin Air roster is going to take games off even a struggling KT. Perhaps I'm hooked on the "these veteran star teams will figure it out" narrative but I really do think KT are just going to run over Jin Air in a bit of a get right situation here. Their players are better at every single position (including both ADCs), and Jin Air have done basically one proactive move in two series so far and that was a sweet first blood by Malrang in their first game of the season. If they're going to remain passive OR just get out manuevered early in games by being slow to the play then I actually trust KT to cleanly end this.

Handicapped: KT -1.5 @ -112 (1 unit)


This is a revenge game for DAMWON. They're going to be so amped up for this after getting smashed by Griffin in challenger scene to finally meet them again atop the LCK is going to be a huge energy situation for them. Both of these teams have looked exceptional. They understand the new way to play League and are playing with tremendous confidence. They are also familiar with each other. I know I stated that I think DAMWON are due for some regression but I think this series is an exception. They've been looking forward to this all offseason I guarantee it. I'm not denying that Griffin are the best team in the league, I think that's pretty obvious, but I don't think they'll go undefeated and I definitely don't think they'll go undefeated in game score. Two red hot teams battling for first and the odds are this far apart? I'll take my value.

Handicapped: DAMWON +1.5 @ +118 (1 unit)

Moneyline: DAMWON +405 (0.5 units)


This morning's series between Gen.G and Afreeca was certainly a weird one and while Afreeca showed us a few neat tricks they weren't exactly clinical. I had Gen.G as one of the bottom two teams going into this morning and while I'm not as down on their "dire" situation as I was then they still haven't shown me enough to convince them that they're going to be more of a middle of the table team yet. 

Kingzone looked MOSTLY improved against KT besides that one weird Yasuo ult that nearly lost them the game (and it should have). As I've mentioend before Kingzone have had the right idea, unlike a lot of the veteran teams, they just need to execute better and it appears that they're starting to. 

I have no idea why Afreeca is favored here. As a matter of fact I think it should be the other way around or close to even. I'm taking Kingzone not just because I think they've been a bit faster to the punch figuring themselves out but because I don't think this line should be this far apart. Afreeca also showed you this weird strategy they're willing to employ so it's not like Kingzone are going to be caught off guard by it. Pawn also looked surprisingly good in the last series against BDD when he actually solo took mid turret for the most part as Leblanc against Lissandra, an unfavorable shoving matchup. I've been impressed with the old dog! Anyway I like Kingzone for a unit here for the value and because I actually like them to win this series.

 Moneyline: Kingzone +138 (1 unit)


This is appropriately even given that I think both teams have looked great so far this season and I expect both teams to cool off slightly sooner rather than later. This is a tough one to cap. I'd lean Hanwha Life who actually looked impressive against Griffin in game one but you could say the same for Sandbox who looked impressive against SKT albeit with favorable drafts helping them A LOT in games two and three. Which do you think is more impressive? I think a good game against Griffin but not enough to fire on it.

No wager (lean Hanwha)

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LPL Spring 2019 January 25th-28th:


We've only seen one series from Victory Five and it was a 2 to 1 loss against TopSports in week one. For those of you that didn't watch this series game one was... something. TopSports actually looked pretty awful in game one besides a clean 5v2 dive for first tower. They lost a herald fight with the lead and eventually lost off of a few really bizarre TPs that looked like a miscommunication. Victory Five still almost lost this game. Pepper was caught invading by the mid laner, not the jungler. Granted Knight is really good but still he was just like "what are you doing here..." and killed him. Victory Five also nearly walked into a few gigantic engages almost as if they had no clue it was even possible. 

Victory Five aren't good. They proceeded to get demolished in the next two games including multiple botched dives and showed a fundamental lack of understanding for how to get back into a game or honestly how to cleanly close a game. They were doing all the wrong things and happened to get away with it in game one. They have some good, respectable players but not enough that are exceptional enough to overcome these disadvantages. BiliBili have looked very much like a Korean team. Strong understanding of macro, disciplined, controlled and well-coordinated but their weakness is their typically slower pace of play. That said I think they know what to expect when facing Victory Five and they're exactly the kind of team that punishes poor understanding of closing and coming back.

I'm not sure how it's going to happen but I'm really confident BiliBili are going to win this series. Even if they get behind early which is something they often do I don't trust Victory Five to know what to do to close this out. They've already shown that they struggle with that when TopSports, a better team than BiliBili, had an abysmal game with tons of miscommunications and mistakes. They still almost lost. I think V5 are likely to be at the bottom of the LPL unless they get their act together. This feels too easy to me.

Moneyline: BiliBili -167 (2 units)


In my game notes I talk about Vici being an improved lineup from last year. "They're aggressive, decisive, and know how to snowball a lead from a macro standpoint. They also know the necessary steps to come back into a game but sometimes struggle to execute on it." Their first series against Suning actually taught us a lot and if we think Suning is a good team then maybe there's hope for Vici right? Sorta...

Suning had an awful draft in game one of this series that included an Smlz Viktor into Xayah/Rakan that obviously got rocked in lane. Props to Vici for making the appropriate moves to put this one away but Suning promptly smashed them in the next two games. I think Vici will be better than last year but are, at best, a middle of the table team and with the average of their range of outcomes I'd say they'll float around 9-12th range. EDG look clean, collected, and the continuity they have from keeping the same roster is showing. 

I like EDG to 2-0 here.I know they lost to Snake who we think might be a mid tier team but if you watched that series there were a few on the edge team fights that could have gone either way that Snake just did Snake things in. I'm aware that this is a brazen and aggressive bet but I'm fairly confident it's the right side. EDG are a Top 4 or 5 team to me and they're already firing on almost all cylinders. I think individually they outclass Vici at every position as well.

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -130 (2 units)


I'm not firing on this game. Both of these teams are struggling mightily at the moment and are looking to be bottom dwellers in the LPL this season. Maybe the over 2.5 maps if you're feeling spicy but I don't really even have a lean here.

No wager


So TopSports were really hyped going into the season and rightfully so, this lineup has a lot of potential but they've looked really shakey so far. I'm confident that they'll figure out what's going on and be a playoff contender but for the time being they're still in that process. OMG, on the other hand, have come out the gates firing with their new look squad. They looked surprisingly good against Invictus and execllent against BiliBili. Strong individual players (especially Icon) and confident, aggressive decision making are what's driving OMG right now. They completely ran over a solid BiliBili team because BiliBili was just a bit slow on jungle rotations.

This is a prime spot for an upset and while I think TopSports will eventually be the better team and may even be right now, they're most certainly not -400 better. I love the OMG ML and handicap in this spot. I think they have about a 50/50 chance of winning this series outright.

Handicapped: OMG +1.5 @ -108 (2 units)

Moneyline: OMG +268 (1 unit)


Surprise surprise I'm taking the Invictus 2-0. JDG honestly look pretty bad and potentially a bottom six team. They couldn't cleanly beat Rogue Warriors and when faced with a good team in FunPlus got completely decimated. Invictus are on another level from FunPlus and I expect them to obliterate JDG this series.

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -182 (2 units)

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LEC (Europe) Spring 2019 January 25th-26th:

(no action for now)


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LMS Spring 2019 January 25th-27th:



(pending but likely no action)

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North American LCS Spring 2019 January 26th-27th:


Most of my NA LCS takes are going to be in line with my NA LCS Spring 2019 Pre-Season Power Rankings so this section might be unexciting but I do have a few selections and a few leans.

LEAN: Liquid, price is a bit too rich for me as I think Cloud 9 could definitely win this game.

LEAN: 100 Thieves, I'm higher on TSM than some and think there's a chance they win this. 

No wager on OpTic CLG: Possibly the Toilet Bowl of NA LCS. I did well betting the bad teams last year but I'm avoiding this one because who knows on day one.

I absolutely LOVE Golden Guardians this split and while I'm higher than some are on FlyQuest I'm thinking Golden Guardians end up a Top 4 team. I also thinkg GG are going to be a hot start type of team which makes me love this spot even more for them.

Moneyline: Golden Guardians -161 (2 units)

I'm going to get a lot of shit for this but my rankings kinda bear this out. I like Echo Fox here. I'm higher on BOTH of these teams than the majority of the cappers I've spoken to by having them in the middle of the table and not the bottom but I do think Echo Fox are going to be faster out the gate and could even be a hot start if they don't open with losses and become frustrated. I just like the individual matchups a lot here for Echo Fox and I think that will matter more in week one than it will later on.

Moneyline: Echo Fox +117

(Day Two lines aren't posted but I might get a chance while traveling to tweet my picks @GelatiLOL  )

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Turkish Champions League Spring 2019 January 26th-27th:


No selections for now

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