Saturday, January 19, 2019

Betting: January 20th (LCK, LPL, TCL)

So I'm trying to not overreact to a bad start but I think we need to make an adjustment to our LCK read already. Gen.G continue to try to be proactive but they're simply not executing well on it (think the failed dive against Sandbox game one bot lane as an example). They're trying to change but the second they fail they immediately become reserved again like their old style which isn't a way to win right now. I don't think Sandbox played particularly good in that series. DAMWON I think is a significantly stronger team than Sandbox is but Gen.G looked even more out of sync against them. The point I'm getting at is that Gen.G looks like they're struggling to adjust to the new meta and the new players on their team. Last year Gen.G stubbornly refused to adapt to the new meta and got away with it because domestically they weren't punished nearly as hard. The new LCK teams aren't like traditional LCK style teams. They're not reserved and focused on vision, they opt for the aggressive play before the conservative play and I think this is a paradigm shift for a lot of the veteran coaches and players that they're going to need to adjust to. Until then I'll be rating these types of teams lower and proactive teams a lot higher. I have faith in some of these old school teams to make adjustments over time since a lot of them are playing with new rosters but some of them might not. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Gen.G stubbornly refuse to adapt and if that's the case I envision them finishing towards the bottom of the table more than the middle like previously expected.

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LCK Spring 2019 - January 20th:


For as good as Griffin looked demolishing people there were times against Kingzone where Kingzone's proactivity was actually working. I'm thinking early in game one as one example but the point I'm making is that unlike a few of the old guard teams Kingzone don't appear content to rest on their laurels and wait for the enemy team to make a mistake which is a strategy that I think simply doesn't work anymore. Rascal and Cuzz had a few miscommunications but I think Kingzone have the right idea and just haven't been executing well. They keep trying plays even when behind unlike Gen.G who try to make one proactive play and if it doesn't work proceed to attempt to turtle up. 

All of this is to say I actually like Kingzone here. Gen.G more or less botched early game plays to spoon-feed a lead to Sandbox but unlike Gen.G who turtle up after a play doesn't work, Kingzone keep attacking and I think will execute better than Gen.G. I also think that there is an aspect of more information being out there on these new teams. If you think about it, a lot of these veteran teams only had challenger film and some scrims potential for these new squads and the Korean region uses information better than anybody historically. We even saw with Griffin last season that teams started to figure them out and they began dropping games. I don't think Sandbox is Griffin or even remotely close. I also think Kingzone are slightly underrated by the public already (just mostly social media) because of a single loss to what looks to be the strongest team in the league. Don't sell them short.

 I'm liking the veteran Kingzone lineup and their coaching staff to make necessary adjustments and take down the new-comers.

Moneyline: Kingzone -169 (2.5 units)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +163 (1 unit)



Similarly to Kingzone I think Afreeca are being underrated just because they lost to what looks like the best or second best team in the league in SK Telecom in their first match. I also think Hanwha Life are being a tad overrated for their victory over KT one in which KT utterly smashed them in game one and then spoon-fed a lead in game two and then straight up punted a win away in game three. Credit for taking what was given to you but the point I'm making is that I think this was more of a KT loss than a HLE win. I also didn't have HLE as highly rated going into this season as I did last season and while I might still be wrong about that I'm sticking to my read for at least a little bit here.

I was very high on Afreeca going into the season and I'm not going to fault them for losing to SKT. They appear to have the right read on the metagame based on their drafts against SKT and were simply outplayed. I love Afreeca here. I'm not sure HLE's solo lanes, including Lava who I'm high on, can handle the Afreeca solo lanes at all and I don't think Afreeca are going to punt away wins like KT just did. 

(Disclaimer: I'm not putting too much against KT for those games as I think it was rather just a weird, flukey situation. I don't want to overreact to them punting like that and say they're a bad team. There have been plenty of good teams that have mental lapses. Against DAMWON they were simply outclassed though.)

Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +131 (1.5 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 - January 20th:


I want to think FunPlus take this 2-0 but they still appear to be figuring themselves out and Snake I just can't get a read on after one series. 

No wager


UPDATE: New top laner Tianci (who was signed Saturday) will be starting against Suning in this game. Uzi is also out but that's old news. Suning are up to -120 favorites now. I'd advise you to hedge although I'll be staying put on my small wager.

Definitely one of the highlight games of the week in the LPL as the returning Worlds contenders (without Uzi and LetMe) take on the hyped up new look Suning Gaming. Suning looked a tad shakey against Vici Gaming, a team I'm not too high on but is improved from last year. I'm not going to hold a dropped game in their first series as a new squad against them too much but it does speak to the point that they may be still building up synergy and figuring themselves out. RNG has historically had no problems winning without Uzi but the often struggled against other top tier LPL teams when he was absent.

I'm not sure on this one. My gut says fade the Suning hype but Wink (previously kiyomi and Smile), a sub who has been riding often the third ADC spot on this roster for a number of years is sort of an unknown. I typically like subs that finally get a chance to show what they're made of and the rest of this RNG squad is so strong with Karsa/MLXG, Xiaohu, and AmazingJ (or Tianci but he was just added today so I doubt he'll start) that I think they can pull the sub along. 

The other angle to this is to fade the name brand. People assume RNG is good, and for the most part that's been correct, but there are a lot of moving parts going on right now. Added a top laner this morning, Uzi and LetMe are out on temporary rest and AmazingJ is new as well although historically he's been a great player. 

I actually like RNG here and that's going to be an unpopular opinion in betting circles. I think people are just a tad too hyped on Suning right now. I think they're going to be a great team and almost definitely Top 4 but they just showed us against a poor Vici team that there might be some growing pains as they figure themselves out. I know you could make the same argument for RNG but I like them for a small wager.

Moneyline: RNG -112 (0.5 units)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ +247 (0.25 units)

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Turkish Champions League Spring 2019 - January 20th:


Slight leans to Besiktas and I kinda like Galatasaray but I'm not firing on anything at the moment.

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