The forest, not the trees: Thoughts on the LCK after Week 1+ (LCK)

I want to talk about how I'm viewing this region moving forward for the next couple of weeks. As a capper it's important to see as many angles and as much information as possible before making a wager. This includes things like metrics, situation, momentum, strategic matchups, and many others but I think something that is often forgotten and was showcased in the NFL and NBA this season is to consider the really REALLY big picture; the forest not the trees, so to speak. 

So the questions become will a change happen? When is this change going to happen (if it does)? and Is it going to be more like a gentle ebb and flow like a seesaw or is it going to a violent snap back like a rubber band? I can't honestly tell you, nobody can, but we can most certainly make a prediction. We kinda do that a lot here in case you didn't notice.

Last year we saw Korea develop this sort of inbred metagame. This isn't new and it happens in most regions the only difference this time was that Korea's metagame wasn't optimal. We saw them punished for this at the World Championships this year. It was hard for us as viewers to see it coming because, domestically, nobody was punishing them so to our eyes, relatively speaking, they looked like clean, dominant teams as usual.

Fast forward to now. We have the "new school" vs the "old school" and the new school is winning. Did some of these teams assume Worlds was a fluke? Was there more inbred metagaming? Did these teams just not scrim each other to see this coming? I think the answer to some of these is yes but mostly no. I think we can make some statements about certain teams even with the small sample size just based on what we've seen from a philosophical standpoint because I don't think all the "old school" teams are necessarily being old school just because they lost to the young guns.

I've been keeping short notes on every single game in the LCK and LPL (soon the West too) and basically writing a summary about the team after each new game is added to create a sort of  thesis statement for each team.

• Gen.G: "Gen.G just don't look like they know how to play the game right now. Yet another veteran team trying to play slow and controlled but not doing the things you need to do to do that. Basically they're trying to play an inferior strategy AND not even doing the things you need to do. Peanut looked like a good acquisition but if the team isn't playing with him it's not going to work. Right now Gen.G look to be one of the bottom couple teams to me along with Jin Air and unlike the other teams that lost to the new blood this week, I actually don't trust them to make the necessary adjustments as much as the others."
• Afreeca: "AF look a little lost right now. Last year this was the well-coached team (along with HLE) but both junglers don't seem to have the right idea of how to play the game right now. Not enough focus on priority in mid and jungle. Their laners get left out to dry way too often. Maybe they can win against other passive teams but against aggressive, decisive teams they're going to struggle a lot."
• DAMWON: "DAM remind me a lot of Griffin last year but they're not quite as savvy to me as Griffin are. They're just kind of facerolling and deathballing other teams and they aren't prepared for that yet. It is, however, the best way to play this meta right now and if they're good at it that means something. I just don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here. DAM have things that can be exploited and just haven't yet. I should have given them more respect as a team that played against Griffin for an entire split and Griffin is good. I still think they're due to come back down to earth just a bit."
• Griffin: "Griffin are already toying with their food in some games. I think they're the best team in the world this year by the end of spring split AND right now and they are showing it. Even when you think they're faltering they always have a gold lead. They're playing a different game right now and to me they're even a cut above SKT as the best team in Korea. They're just on another level. This is a team that looks mad they didn't get to go to worlds and they're going to take it out on Korea.  They were one of the best teams last year after playing COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than they did in challenger. They're the real deal and remind me A LOT of SK Telecom when they were first dominating. It was like they were playing a different game."
• Jin Air: "I don't want to immediately say Jin Air are the worst team in the LCK because they had the unfortunate scheduling nightmare of starting their season against SKT and Griffin who look to be the two best teams in the league. That said, They haven't really shown a lot and It wouldn't surprise me to see them finish last."
• Hanwha Life eSports: "HLE are a decisive, solid team fighting team that sometimes struggle in the transition into mid game but for as long as the transition period is shortened like it is in the current meta they'll probably remain a strong, middle of the table team. Bono is going to need to improve his early pathing because against better teams they're going to be punished."
• Kingzone DragonX: "I think Kingzone will eventually figure things out. They aren't afraid to fight and take it to teams but I still think they're adjusting to both their new roster and the new meta game. How long that will take who knows but I think they'll be ok eventually"
• KT Rolster: "KT are figuring their roster out and haven't looked quite as bad as teams like Gen.G and Afreeca. They've shown a willingness to skirmish and fight early they just need to clean things up a bit and adapt to the new teams. I expect once they solidify a roster they'll be in the middle of the pack somewhere but they are DOWNRIGHT SLOPPY right now."
• SK Telecom: "SKT appear to understand how the game is played now and their individual players are so strong that they'll almost certainly be a top 3 team. I do think they could afford to get better at being proactive but they at least understand that you need to counter gank or punch somewhere else instead of just playing and hoping the enemy team wont do something. In other words they "get it" and will only get better. Clid and Faker have a lot of chemistry already and that will only improve with time which is scary since SKT now have a bonafied superstar in Teddy in the bot lane." 
• Sandbox: "Sandbox are just all in. They're so much like an old school LPL team. Commit to everything entirely and without question. I appreciate their confidence but OnFleek is hard carrying this team and I think once teams get some film on this team they're going to struggle a lot because their lanes haven't been particularly good."

I mentioned it in my update yesterday but there is a bit of a paradigm shift going on in Korea right now. You have a lot of these teams returning a lot of veteran players that are still trying to play the game like its last year or the year before even (hey Gen.G!). They're being run over by these newer, more aggressive and less calculated teams like Sandbox and DAMWON. It'd be easy to say "Welp, I guess that's our new reality!" and call it a season while we're ahead but this is a competitive game with professional players that want nothing more than to win. They aren't going to roll over and die. 

I'm going to move foward as though this "adjustment" will happen sooner rather than later. Last year and parts of this year already have taught us that we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the "old and washed up." To me embracing this entirely isn't something that happens over night especially for people that have had the opposite drilled into their head for years on end, but I do think simply awareness and some adjustment will be enough to start to swing the momentum back in the other direction. I'm not saying it'll be much but I do think it will happen. 

There are a few candidates that I think have been misunderstood so far, a few that are due for regression, a few that will remain on top, and, sadly, a couple that appear doomed to the pits of the bottom of the table.

Growers (On the right track, will improve soon): Kingzone (4) and KT Rolster (6)

Kingzone and KT Rolster appear to have the right idea and are simply not executing or are ALSO figuring out rosters while doing so. I think both of these teams will be fine potentially as early as this week or next week and will end up in the middle of the table somewhere.

Show-ers (Due for regression): Sandbox (8), Hanwha (7)

There is the obvious candidate in Sandbox. They look confident and decisive and the meta fits them well but this team lacks tact and I'm not sure their individual players outside of OnFleek give them anywhere remotely close to the ceiling of some of these other teams. Hanwha I think will be a competitive team (we lovingly call them the "ultra tryhards" here) but ultimately don't have the upside to compete and after a really promising start were soundly quieted by Griffin this morning. I think against the good teams they're going to struggle but they won't be bad.

 The Real Deals (legit good and likely to stay): Griffin (1), SK Telecom (2)

To me these are the only two definite mainstays at the top of the leaderboard for now. They have shown aptitude for the current metagame, individual prowess, and overall team prowess along with a number of different tools at their disposal and they've made it look easy. Likely your championship contenders.

The Real Bads (... just not gonna happen this split): Gen.G (9), Jin Air (10)

I think Gen.G have the upside of individual talent to perhaps pull them up a little if they can show that they're adjusting but unlike the last two season with Ruler and the coaching staff's unwavering commitment to scaling 2-core comps because "it works for us" I'm not quite sure they can play their way out of a paper bag against this field like they could the previous ones. Jin Air just.... well it's more like the struggle bus than the Green Wings. 

The Wildcards (widest range of outcomes): DAMWON (3), Afreeca (5)

While both of these teams are currently at opposite ends of the spectrum with one having figured things out and the other still doing so, I think these two represent the highest upside without being awful currently AND the lowest downside without dipping as low as The Real Bads. In other words I think Afreeca could end up 3-5th strongest team in the LCK and DAMWON could end up 6-8th strongest. I think DAMWON are a good team for the current meta but unlike Sandbox I think have stronger individual players overall and have shown a bit more tact and diversity so I don't think their floor is as low as Sandbox. Afreeca look lost at the moment but I honestly think they'll get it together with time and by season's end, whether it's too late or not, will be a solid team and potentially more.

So what does all of this mean as a capper? It means I'm basically trying to get ahead of the market for value moving forward with these assumptions, corrected and adjusted for more information (VODs) as it becomes available. I think right now the entire universe is really high on a few teams inparticular such as Sandbox, Hanwha, and to a lesser extent DAMWON. I also think a few teams are being underrated for bad starts like Kingzone and to a lesser extent Afreeca and KT Rolster. 

Plant your flags, have sound logic, and stick to a plan because otherwise you'll get lost in momentum swings for the next few weeks.