Friday, June 29, 2018

Betting: June 30th (LCK, LPL, LMS, EU LCS, NA LCS, TCL)

LOL Champions Korea 6/30 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-294, -1.5 @ +119)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
Hanwha Life eSports (+219, +1.5 @ -154)

BBQ Olivers (+200, +1.5 @ -139)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
SK Telecom (-263, -1.5 @ +108)

Handicapped: Kingzone  -1.5 maps @ +119 (7 units) (will show as initial 4 and add on of 3)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 2-1 @ +202 (2 units)

I'm actually going a bit against the public grain here on this one. Hanwha Life has been great this season just as ROX was last season. They're consistent, competitive, and will likely be in contention for a playoff spot but they're not Kingzone. They're not, for my money, the best team in the world. Kingzone had a weird start to the season with a loss to the back to elite level Gen.G and a game loss to the Jin Air Green Wings. They dropped a game against current #2 Afreeca and got swept by Griffin more or less by tilting off of one mistake, something I've never seen that team do before. What'd they do after losing to Griffin? SMASHED SK Telecom two days later. I think this Kingzone team is going to be on a warpath for the rest of the season and I'll be hard pressed not to be wagering on them a lot. After all, as I've said, I still think this is the best team on the planet and I want to jump on odds like these while we still get them. This is no knock against HLE I just think Kingzone are tired of messing around and want to potentially pull within a game (or half game) of 1st before the Rift Rivals break.


Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +108 (6 units)

PROP: Exact SK Telecom 2-1 @ +233 (1 unit)

BBQ are the worst team in Korea and to me it's not particularly close. They're sloppy, they don't convert kills into objectives, their laning isn't good, their macro isn't good and in a region as competitive as Korea I don't think the rest of the league besides the 8th and 9th place teams can afford to "underestimate" or "take the day off" as the cliches go which does not bode well for BBQ. SKT need victories after a rough start and seem to be hitting a rhythm now despite the shellacing put on them by Kingzone which was to be expected. After Rift Rivals will be interesting because the break could hurt momentum or help them with a meta change but for now they're in a good spot and I expect this to be a 2-0. The only reason this wager isn't higher is because of potential starter changes and the fact that SKT aren't one of the elite "slam dunk" teams I just think they're playing well right now and finally figured this metagame out and BBQ are terrible.


LOL Pro League (China) 6/30 Schedule:

BiliBili Gaming (-370, -1.5 @ +100)
@ (O/U: 33:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)
LGD Gaming (+265, +1.5 @ -130)

JD Gaming (-313, -1.5 @ +113)
@ (O/U: 33:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)
Vici Gaming (+230, +1.5 @ -147)

Royal Never Give Up (-125, -1.5 @ +228)
@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)

Invictus Gaming (-101, +1.5 @ -313)

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -101 (5 units)

PROP: Exact Invictus 2-1 @ +248 (2 units)

PROP: Royal to win at least 1 map? NO @ +299 (0.5 units)

These two teams slugged it out in a five game playoff series that Royal won just a couple months ago. Invictus were the best team in China and while RNG were respected as a good team, upset them BIG TIME in what ended up being a classic series (go watch it if you haven't it's a real slobberknocker). Not only does Invictus have side choice but a vendetta here. I think the current metagame is ever so slightly more in favor of IG and with side selection and this extra motivation I expect them to get the job done this time around in a close 2-1 duel of what I'd consider the two best teams in the LPL. Small wagers on the 2-0 and we'll see if we can mise that.


Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +113 (4 units)

PROP: Exact JD 2-1 @ +206  (1 unit)

JD have been thriving in a meta built for their all-in, early game aggression and I think that continues against Vici. However I do think Vici have looked good and also "thrive" in that meta. Why the thrive in quotes? Because I really don't think Vici can ever really thrive. They're one of the worst teams in the LPL but I do think this is a decent time for them. I also don't think JD are one of the true elite teams so I don't always trust them because they can get sloppy. Because of this I'm limiting this to 4 units with a slight pregame hedge on the 2-1 victory.


Handicapped: LGD Gaming +1.5 @ -130 (2 units)

PROP: Exact LGD 2-1 @ +469  (1 unit)

BiliBili are the better team but this metagame is just so poor for them and they've been performing terribly. Not taking objectives off of kills and not doing anything proactive. They're still playing like it's last season and have yet to make the adjustment. LGD have at least been trying to adjust and while they're not good they do get side choice here against an opponent that's not only reeling but look completely lost. BiliBili remind me a lot of Jin Air in Korea. They know how to do things correctly in slow, scaling metas and thrive there but throw them into something like we have right now and they're just terrible and slow. I like BiliBili to take this 2-1 so I like the LGD +1.5 and the outside chance for them to steal this series 2-1 even as the inferior team. Low wager because these teams aren't particularly great so anything could happen.


League Masters Series (Taiwan) 6/30 Schedule:



EU LCS (Europe) 6/30 Schedule:

Misfits -370 @ H2K +250
Schalke 04 +144 @ Vitality -200
Fnatic -333 @ Giants +227
ROCCAT -135 @ Splyce +100
G2 eSports -417 @ Unicorns of Love +300

PROP: Misfits @ H2K UNDER 33:00 @ -122 (2 units)

PROP: Schalke @ Vitality UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

PROP: Fnatic @ Giants UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (2 units)

PROP: G2 @ UoL UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Moneyline: Splyce +100  (2 units)

I don't particularly like any of the moneylines in Europe besides the close game but I do like the UNDER's in situations where there are heavy favorites as well as combinations of 2-4 team parlays.

Splyce looked a lot cleaner albiet deliberate in Friday's game against a poor H2K so I actually was thinking I'd slam ROCCAT here expecting a line overadjustment but I don't think too highly of ROCCAT either so it was mostly preying on line value. Well it turns out Splyce are +100 and not favored so we'll go with a couple units on the dog here. I think Splyce are the better team anyway even if the meta doesn't favor them. I was going to bet the dog here no matter who it was.


Turkish Champions League 6/30 Schedule:

I'm not messing with Turkey until I get a clearer picture on how things shake out. Feel free to throw SuperMassive into your parlays regardless of who they face as they're still the clear cut top team here.


NA LCS (North America) 6/30 Schedule:

Team Solo Mid -179 @ Cloud 9 +130
Team Liquid -159 @ Echo Fox +117
100 Thieves -141 @ Clutch Gaming +104
FlyQuest -103 @ Golden Guardians -132
Counter Logic Gaming -200 @ OpTic Gaming +145

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +104 (2 units)

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -106 (1 unit)

Clutch get side selection and, to me, are the better team. This would be a large wager if it weren't for a few factors:

  • Best of ones are volatile
  • Bad metagame for Clutch
  • Hard to get a read on what 100 Thieves will be like as they prep for Rift Rivals since Levi and Brandini are likely going to start. 
And speaking of that Meteos recently came out and had an interview where he talked about how much is sucks "training the guy who wants to take your job." This team has done a great job of not  being a toxic atmosphere. What I mean by that is that they didn't just show up in Spring as the crew of veterans just collecting a paycheck like I thought they'd be going into last season. I also thought, because they were vets, that they'd be unmotivated and likely would just be miserable at the first sign of bad performance but they ended up never seeing that bad performance really. I think this might end up catching up to 100 Thieves but it could also be a blessing bringing in fresh players. Brandini and Levi have been terrorizing the Challenger Series so maybe this is a good thing but what it says to me is that this team is sort of mailing it in for Rift Rivals which, to me, means they might be mailing in this game. If it wasn't for best of ones I'd slam this one but I've set a hard limit of 3 units for best of one games in the LCS this first half of the season and that's been working for me.

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