Friday, June 22, 2018

Betting: June 23rd (LPL, LCK, LMS, TCL, EU LCS, NA LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 6/23 Schedule:

Gen.G eSports (-120, -1.5 @ +261)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
KT Rolster (-105, +1.5 @ -370)

Afreeca Freecs (-435, -1.5 @ -112)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Hanwha Life eSports (+305, +1.5 @ -115)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -105 (4 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 @ +247  (1.5 units) (this is under props as 0-2)

Going out on a limb a bit here but for as good as Gen.G have looked I still think they've had a couple of games handed to them. Kingzone should have 2-0'd and the ever competitive but ultimately middle of the table HLE also took a game off of them decisively. I also think KT are due for a bit of a course correction here and will be up for this game after a win yesterday against BBQ to get their confidence back. This is a streaky team just like Gen.G and I think one could drop a few of their next games and KT will start winning after a rough starting schedule against the top squads. Side selection also goes to KT. I might up this in the morning but we'll keep it at this for now.


Moneyline: Hanwha Life eSports +305 (2 units)

Handicapped: Hanwha Life eSports +1.5 @ -115 (4 units)

This feels like such a sucker bet but I think it's the right one. HLE have a good read on the meta and just like they did last season they're fighting hard every single game. Afreeca are in their own tier to me. Slightly below the elite teams because their ceiling seems lower but much more consistent than Gen.G or KT Rolster. This feels like a hard fought back and forth 2-1 win for Afreeca and the handicaps tell that story while the moneylines tell a much different one. I like the "sucker" bet of HLE +1.5 @ -115 but I kinda like the moneyline at +305 as well. I could see HLE winning this and it doesn't seem that farfetched especially considering HLE were competitive with Gen.G and Griffin and took care of business against the bad teams in BBQ and Jin Air. 


LOL Pro League (China) 6/23 Schedule:

Vici Gaming (-118, -1.5 @ +207)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 23.5 total kills)
LGD (-108, +1.5 @ -286)

Suning Gaming (+110, +1.5 @ -286)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
JD Gaming (-141, -1.5 @ +210)

Royal Never Give Up (-400, -1.5 @ -105)
@ (O/U: 30:00 minutes, 21.5 total kills)
BiliBili Gaming (+286, +1.5 @ -122)

Handicapped: Royal Never Give Up -1.5 @ -105 (10 units) *PICK OF THE WEEK*

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Royal finally woke up and roflstomped a Suning Gaming team that was smelling themselves a bit too much after their 3-0 start. BiliBili on the other hand have been struggling mightily. Barely eeking out a win against Vici, losing to JDG, and getting dominated by Suning. I mean just put the pieces together on this one:

  1. Suning Gaming just got stomped by RNG, Suning Gaming stomped BiliBili just a few days ago.
  2. BiliBili benefited a lot from last seasons slow, methodical, scaling based play. It's what they're good at. This chaotic, fast-paced solo queue style play does not suit them.
  3. BiliBili were a very good team in that old metagame. Royal were a GREAT team in that old meta and are a great team in this meta because their players are better individually across the board and they've shown the ability to play up tempo unlike BBG.
  4. RNG are one of the two truly elite teams in China that will challenge for a world championship and after a bit of a rocky start they're going to kick it into gear. They started slow last split too and then rattled off double digit consecutive wins.
  5. RNG aren't changing their identity in an attempt to desperately adapt. They know who they are and they're damn good at it and still finding ways to make that work.
  6. They play BiliBili's style better than BiliBili does so you're covered from all angles on this one.


Moneyline: JD Gaming -141  (2 units)

Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +210 (0.5 units)

You know it's weird. This meta should be favoring JD's aggressive early game style but they're also a very one dimensional team that tunnels on their star ADC Loken. I don't think the LPL teams will continue to leave up Lucian and Kaisa for ADC centric teams. JD are perplexing. They took a game off of RNG but RNG were essentially sleeping and still won the series 2-1. JD also lost a game to the struggling BiliBili. They also took a game off of Invictus. I'm not sure which team is going to show up here but I think I like JD a bit to 2-1 if they're the average of the games so far this season. Suning are more steady but I think JD are the stronger team especially in this meta and I think there's an off chance that they "figure it out" and suddenly start dominating other mid table teams in this "chaos" style.


League Masters Series (Taiwan) 6/23 Schedule:

Mad Team (+172, +1.5 @ -192)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
Machi eSports (-263, -1.5 @ +131)

Flash Wolves (-455, -1.5 @ -115)
(O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
AHQ eSports (+274, +1.5 @ -125)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -115 (5 units)

There's a chance I get burned for this one and FW come out flat but this team utterly dominated the LMS last split and unless they take a day off, even if AHQ significantly improve I'd still take FW to 2-0. Flash Wolves are about as easy as it gets and lines like these won't be around once people remember that. Also people like to play up the age old AHQ/FW rivalry but AHQ haven't been relevant or good in a long long time even within the LMS.


Turkish Champions League (Turkey) 6/23 Schedule:

HWA Gaming +115 @ Team AURORA -156
Royal Bandits -500 @ Bursaspor eSports +285
1907 Fenerbahce -333 @ YouthCrew +227
SuperMassive -833 @ DarkPassage +448

(pending, awaiting prop numbers)


EU LCS (Europe) 6/23 Schedule:

FC Schalke 04 -137 @ ROCCT +107
Misfits -222 @ Giants +169
G2 eSports -313 @ H2K +230
Splyce -192 @ Unicorns of Love +148
Fnatic -172 @ Vitality +134

Moneyline: Splyce -192 (2 units)

Moneyline: Fnatic -172 (2 units)

UoL are horrible and Splyce have started off 0-3 and are in dire need of some wins. Even with the slow start last split Splyce still took care of the bad teams when they played them. I expect this team to get their asses together much quicker this season even with the weird metagame. They're just stronger all around than UoL and hopefully care a lot more.

Fnatic mixed things up with Bwipo playing "adc" but this is mostly a bet on the fact that despite their wins Vitality have looked really underwhelming to me. Take it with a grain of salt because I'm a hater or whatever but I still don't think this Vitality team is that good just because they've won a few. This is a risky wager though. Big line for a tea mwith lineup changes against a perceived "good" team but I'm following my gut on this one.

Parlay: Fnatic, Splyce, G2, Misfits, Schalke 5 teamer for a unit. Seems like a pretty predictable slate tomorrow even with meta considered.


NA LCS (Europe) 6/23 Schedule:

Team Liquid -175 @ Counter Logic Gaming +128
Team Solo Mid -227 @ Clutch Gaming +167
Echo Fox -455 @ OpTic Gaming +304
100 Thieves -208 @ FlyQuest +154

PROP: Echo @ OpT UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +154 (2 units)

PROP: Liquid @ CLG  UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (2 units)

Not a lot of action to like here. Parlay it if you wish but I will be playing the unders in games that I'm considering for blowout potential (if that's a thing in this meta, all games are). Upping the under wagers on these imbalanced games. FlyQuest is mostly just a "due for a win/due for a loss" along with side selection. I like this FlyQuest lineup a bit more than last split. It's more cohesive they've just had to face Echo Fox and TSM. I like the value for an upset here as I STILL THINK 100 THIEVES IS OVERRATED. They can't be better than they were last season. That was basically the Vegas Golden Knights in League of Legends.

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