Thursday, June 28, 2018

Betting: June 29th (LCK, LPL, LMS, TCL, EU LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 6/29 Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-435, -1.5 @ -147)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
MVP (+301, +1.5 @ +104)

Gen.G eSports (-385, -1.5 @ -135)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
Jin Air GW (+264, +1.5 @ -102)

Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -147 (5 units)

Afreeca didn't look themselves despite a 2-1 victory against Jin Air last match but I think they'll get right back on track against MVP. This felt more like a 3 unit wager to me because the sweep is the only way to bet it and I could see MVP taking a game especially with side selection but after researching, I think all the evidence points to Afreeca taking this 2-0 with one, possibly two of the games being close so we're upping the wager. Afreeca have a +725 gold differential @ 15 minutes which is, to me, the most telling statistic in this current metagame which we'll have until the break starting next week. Gen.G and KT Rolster are the only teams possessing better differential scores. For comparison, after this mornings matches, Griffin is at +222 and MVP are at -318. MVP have looked like a better team than last season but I think after dropping a game to Jin Air last week and a competitive middle to top of the table in the LCK, Afreeca will be motivated to go into the break with another match win in preparation for what I'd assume is a rather large metagame change.


Handicapped: Gen.G eSports -1.5 maps @ -135 (5 units)

Be warned that Gen.G have been my kryptonite this year but Jin Air are one of the bottom two teams in the league despite Teddy's best efforts. I think Jin Air desperately need the break and a metagame change or they'll continue to struggle. If this wasn't Gen.G I'd probably up this to 6 or 7 units but I don't want to get burned too badly just because they decided not to show up for a game. I think they're good enough to win even if that happens because Jin Air haven't been able to really punish but I'm still a tad skeptical.


LOL Pro League (China) 6/29 Schedule:

EDward Gaming (-667, -1.5 @ -149)
@ (O/U: 30:00 minutes, 21.5 total kills)
TopSports Gaming (+427, +1.5 @ +114)

Rogue Warriors (-345, -1.5 @ -103)
@ (O/U: 30:00 minutes, 21.5 total kills)
Team WE (+254, +1.5 @ -127)

Handicapped: EDward Gaming -1.5 maps @ -149 (4 units)

While TopSports may have moved themselves up the list to one of the "best of the worst" spots I just don't really see them winning games that Marin doesn't hard carry them in. Brief side topic: Why in the hell is Marin here? I know he just took the fat paycheck and is livin' it up the good "retired Korean" life but my god the dude is still just phenominal. Any game this team wins is solely on his back it's remarkable. Anyway back on track. TopSports are still trying to play scaling league of legends every game and that's not the game in it's current state. They're not entirely all in on it but they're still playing relatively slow so they have a tendency to get run over. They have a chance in games where they don't just by the nature of how they draft but they're not even a particularly great late game team they just draft for it. They've also been mixing in Lies for Marin which... I mean look I get it you gotta develop someone behind him for when he eventually leaves but holy shit you're awful just start your superstar. Marin is legitimately still one of the best players on the planet. He's a game changer. I'm a tad skeptical on this because I don't think EDG is quite on the level of the elite LPL teams and they get caught up in the scaling nonsense themselves sometimes but they're a top 5 squad and appear to be comfortable just playing a faster version of themselves for this metagame. My only concern for this game is that they start Haro over Clearlove but even then they should be able to 2-0 this.


Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -103 (6 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -122 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Unless you think Rogue Warriors aren't going to give a damn about their last game going into Rift Rivals I simply don't understand this line. It's sort of a must win for Team WE or they'll fall too far behind but at this point they're more or less only better than the truly bad teams in the LPL. Rogue Warriors aren't a team that messes around or plays with their food either. This team is brutally efficient and ruthless which is why I usually trust them more in scenarios like this than a team like Gen.G in the LCK or Echo Fox in NA LCS. Rogue Warriors are a Top 10 team in the world to me, possibly higher than that along with Invictus and RNG and Team WE are has-beens, albeit capable ones. This screams blowout to me especially because Team WE are a long game style team sporting the second longest average game time in the LPL while Rogue Warriors have been averaging just a shade over 30 minutes and are going to look to continue their undefeated run. I could see fading the favorite here for a lot of people because Team WE have recognizable names from their previous Worlds performances which is probably why this line isn't slightly higher but I don't think this is the time. I'd look to after the break for that and to a team that plays stronger and more aggressive in the early game than Team WE does. I like the unders in this game too because RW are going to get either the new pocket pick Mid Kled and get run over by overpowered champions because they spend a ban on it. I know 30 is a lower number but RW should take care of business here.


I'll also be doing a smattering of very small parlays combining 2-7 pieces with various heavy favorite moneylines and some -1.5 map ones as well. This slate appears extremely predictable and we don't get too many of these in a season. We've also been running red hot and hit a few parlays yesterday so screw it let's have some fun and hope we spike one.


League Masters Series (Taiwan) 6/29 Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-2500, -1.5 @ -244)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
Team Afro (+669, +1.5 @ +161)

Mad Team (+169, +1.5 @ -192)
(O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
G-Rex (-256, -1.5 @ +131)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -244 (8.5u , max allowed) 

This is the kind of line that gets you punished for saying "it's a sure thing" but to be honest I think my team could contend with Team Afro and we have day jobs. Ok maybe not that bad but still, you get the picture. Flash Wolves could probably win this blindfolded and I don't think they'll mess around as they prep for Rift Rivals. Now Team Afro have a new lineup but to be honest it's not really any better from what I can tell. This is money in the bank. Easy add to the parlay portfolio for the slate.


Handicapped: G-Rex -1.5 @ +131 (4 units)

G-Rex were one of the two non-Flash Wolves teams last season that had anything remotely close to a chance to even be competitive against them. They had a rough start with a brutal loss to the newly invigorated Hong Kong Attitude and they're still getting comfortable with new mid laner Wuji. Now make no mistake Wuji is a downgrade from Candy but the other four players still remain and I think this team just needed a match to get their legs under them. G-Rex were the second best team in the LMS last split (you could argue J Team I guess). They're primed to return to form here.


EU LCS (Europe) 6/29 Schedule:

Misfits -233 @ FC Schalke 04  +171
Splyce -133 @ H2K +101
Team Vitality -154 @ Unicorns of Love +113
G2 eSports -115 @ Fnatic -115

Moneyline: Splyce -133 (3 units)

Moneyline: G2 eSports -115 (2 units)

Moneyline: Team Vitality -154 (3 units)

Moneyline: FC Schalke 04 +171 (1 unit)

Volatile metagame and best of ones are a bad combination but I have a few strong leans for tomorrow's EU LCS but I'll be sticking to mostly live betting.

  • Splyce have to get it together at some point. They're not an elite team but they're a very good team and appear to just be in a rough spot playing the current metagame. They have the right read they just need the execution which I think they'll be able to do against the also winless H2K. 
  • I like G2 just slightly more than Fnatic here simply because Fnatic are not only missing their best player (I don't give a damn what the meta is you play Rekkles) but nobody seems to be able to stop G2's bot lane right now (RAISE YOUR DONGERS)
  • UoL sucks. That is all.
  • This is mostly just a line value bet. Yea Misfits are good but FC Schalke 04 should be in that top half conversation and this line is massively blown out of proportion because of Misfits' 4-0 start. I might actually up this tomorrow.


Turkish Champions League 6/29 Schedule:

Team AURORA -182 @ Bursaspor eSports +133
SuperMassive -500 @ YouthCrew +285
HWA Gaming -250 @ DarkPassage +165
1907 Fenerbahce -128 @ Royal Bandits -114

There's some weird shit going on in the TCL with a lot of weird roster moves and full roster trades and stuff so it's pretty tough to get a feel right now unless you're really plugged into the Turkish scene. I'm going to be abstaining outside of parlay inclusions on heavy favorites until I have more of an idea what's going on. SuperMassive are still the top team and it's not close is the only sure thing at this point.

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