KT Rolster (+129, +1.5 @ -250)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Griffin (-167, -1.5 @ +184)
Kingzone DragonX (-385, -1.5 @ -109)
@ (O/U 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
SK Telecom (+272, +1.5 @ -119)
(UPDATE: NOW MY 10 UNIT PICK OF THE WEEK!!)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +129 (5 units)
PROP: Exact KT Rolster 2-1 victory @ +280 (2.5 units)
PROP: Griffin to win at least one map NO @ +385 (2.5 units)
UPDATE: Added 5 more units @ +129 moneyline to make this my PICK OF THE WEEK
The reason for the prop bets here is because they had better odds than the actual handicaps. I might actually end up making this a larger wager depending on line movement and if I feel better about it the more I think about it but this is exactly the kind of spot KT will swing wildly in the other direction of expectations. The "KT Rollercoaster" is more or less a meme at this point with the amount of anecdotal evidence to support it. They will meet your wildest expectations and then immediately crush any expectations the next week. One week they obliterate Gen.G, the next they lose in roll over dead fashion to SKT. Now granted it's The Telecom War but still, the point stands. This feels to me exactly like the spot where KT Rolster completely destroy Griffin and then lose to MVP on Sunday. The other factor that's going into this selection is the fact that for as good as Griffin have been, I just can't see this team being the best in the LCK by seasons end. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited as hell to have a bunch of new kids on the block keeping the world's most elite teams on their heels again but the crown lies heavy and KT are exactly the kind of team to knock them off their pedastol even if just momentarily. The other thing to keep in mind here is that KT are going to have to take this team seriously if they want to surpass them for a worlds spot. The 2nd and 3rd Korean slots are going to be an absolute slobberknocker of a fight come seasons end and it starts now.
So let's review our reasoning:
- KT Rolster have a history of smashing the top teams and then losing to weaker teams, often in back to back matches, they're like the Pittsburgh Steelers of League of Legends.
- KT Rolster need to start getting wins (they're 3-3) while Griffin (6-0) will be playing their last match before a two week hiatus for Rift Rivals as they sit atop the standings. I don't really think they'll be "coasting" because this team is young and hungry to prove themselves but I do think KT need this a lot more than Griffin does and that can matter.
- KT hopefully learned from their idiodic game three draft against SKT to just play stronger lanes. That's how they win and what they're good at.
- KT have the individual talent advantage over Griffin and very few teams can say that especially at the ADC position where I think Deft is still the best at the position in the world.
- KT can neutralize Griffin's strengths which are the Mid and ADC positions. KT's bot lane is stronger as a full unit. Lehends has been good but is not a natural support player and hasn't been particularly special this season as he's been carried pretty hard by the rest of his team. UCal and Chovy are evenly matched.
- Kingzone gave KT a lot of information on how Griffin plan to attack a team similarly built to themselves.
- Smeb can't possibly be as bad as he's been and should show up here against Sword who has rolled by getting Aatrox or played safe on Ornn for 7 of his 14 games this season.
- Teams can't keep letting Griffin have optimal drafts and even KT should be able to figure that out.
- KT utterly destroyed Gen.G who are currently second only to Griffin.
- This one is a bit more emotion/gut but this KT team is simply too talented to be 3-3. I know Korea is competitive and they shoot themselves in the foot but for my money, KT are the best team in the world when playing at their ceiling. We've seen it and they usually bring their best against the strongest teams.
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Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -109 (8 units)
SK Telecom looked much improved in their win over KT but let's not forget that game three was gifted to them and they still had chances to lose it. This SKT team is frustratingly mediocre and it makes me sad to see Faker and Bang stuck there but perhaps this will change with a metagame shift. Anyway I love spots like this. SKT coming off of an upset win with perceived momentum and Kingzone coming off a loss to Griffin in which they looked tilted almost immediately and the new guys were in their head means people are going to be down on this team (and up on Griffin) but let's not forget just how dominant this roster is. Gun to my head Kingzone is still the best League of Legends team in the world. If aliens were to invade and we needed one team to fight for humankind I'd want it to be Kingzone. The props and other lines tell us that the books believe the following:
- Kingzone 2-0: -143 which is implied odds of 58.85% or -1.5 maps @ -109 which is 52%
- Kingzone 2-1: +224 which is implied odds of 30.86%
- SK Telecom 2-1: +476 which is implied odds of 17.36%
- SK Telecom 2-0: +665 which is implied odds of 13.07%
- SK Telecom +1.5: -119 which is implied odds of 54.35%
In order the books think the most likely of outcomes is Kingzone 2-0, Kingzone 2-1 and I feel the same way but by a much more significant amount. I think this is more likely in the 65%+ range for a Kingzone 2-0 which should have this -1.5 map handicap at around -186. I'm slamming this play. SKT looked better but did have a win more or less handed to them before the game started in game three vs KT and were utterly smashed in game one. Kingzone are coming off of an embarassing loss to Griffin and I think will return to "best team in the world" form. I somehow think everyone is sleeping on this team right now and I'm going to take advantage.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------LMS (Taiwan) 6/28 Schedule:
Flash Wolves (-1250, -1.5 @ -227)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)
Machi eSports (+510, +1.5 @ +152)
AHQ eSports (+226, +1.5 @ -152)
@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)
Hong Kong Attitude (-357, -1.5 @ +105)
Moneyline: AHQ +226 (2 units)
Handicapped: AHQ +1.5 maps @ -152 (4 units)
I'm not a huge fan of AHQ and have constantly downed them as overrated by the public because people only remember the names from the worlds showings when they were the second best LMS team but that's no longer the case and hasn't been for a couple seasons now. That being said they're not the worst team in the LMS either. Hong Kong Attitude was one of the worst teams in the LMS and while they look improved this line is grossly inaccurate. AHQ's only fault this season is an 0-2 loss to the best team (by far) in their region in Flash Wolves who are like professionals playing against amatures. This match should be close and I actually think AHQ are close to or greater than 50% to win it so this line is WAY WAY out of whack. If I they were a better team I'd put more money on this but they are, ultimately, a middle of the table team in a weaker region so I'll limit this to 6 units total. That being said, if you like this read and are willing to take some risk this is a bet to slam because I think HKA are overrated because of one win (granted it was against a good team in GRex) and AHQ are severely underrated because of one loss to the best team in the region.
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