Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Betting: June 13th (LPL and LCK)

LPL June 13th Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-833, -1.5 @ -182, M1 -400, M2 -556, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 30:00, Total Kills 23.5)
LGD Gaming (+507, +1.5 @ +139, M1 +275, M2 +357, M3 +235)




BiliBili Gaming (-233, -1.5 @ +141, M1 -185, M2 -200, M3 -169)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 23.5)
JD Gaming (+176, +1.5 @ -185, M1 +141, M2 +150, M3 +129)


I'll be slamming unders until the books correct to this "fiesta" meta that looks like solo queue with off role picks and the games snowballing harder than anything I've seen since Season 3. 

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Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 @ -182  (5 units)

Prop:  Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Invictus punted a game against a seemingly strong JD team that has always excelled at the early game but this LGD roster has had so many changes and additions and what not that nobody even knows what this starting lineup is going to look like right now. Regardless, I think IG roflstomp this and have a pair of sub 25 minute wins like they did against JD. 

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Moneyline: JD Gaming +176  (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -109  (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116  (1 unit)

JD are a strong early game team and BBG made a lot of errors against a Vici lineup that I wouldn't consider very strong. JD also took a game off of Invictus who are still, in my opinion, the best team in China even though they didn't win the Spring split. This is partially because of that but mostly because I don't understand why this line is so far apart. Even during last season this line wouldn't have been this far out. I think we need to take advantage of things early in the season. They also get side selection for counterpick which is more relevant now than it's been in awhile.


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LCK June 13th Schedule:


Kingzone DragonX (-333, -1.5 @ -122, M1 -250, M2 -270, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Gen.G eSports (+243, +1.5 @ -119, M1 +185, M2 +200, M3 +168)




SK Telecom (+112, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +109, M3 +100)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Afreeca Freecs (-143, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -141, M3 -130)


KT Rolster (-333, -1.5 @ +106, M2 -238, M2 -256, M3 -213)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Jin Air GW (+247, +1.5 @ -137, M1 +176, M2 +191, M3 +161)


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Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -106 (5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Kingzone and KT Rolster are on a tier of their own and for my money Kingzone are still the best team on the planet. It'd be easy to be down on them after their performance at MSI but this is exactly the kind of run and gun, And1 mixtape style session meta this team could thrive on just like KT. Gen.G (former Samsung and KSV) on the other hand are the "disciplined" scaling team that refuses to adapt to metas and usually struggles to adapt. This seems like a roflstomp to me unless Gen.G reinvent themselves. I'm not entirely ruling it out or this would be a 10 unit wager but this should be easy money. 

(this line has since moved to -1.5 @ -122. seems in line with our thinking)

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Moneyline: SK Telecom +112 (2 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

I put SKT and Afreeca in the same tier in my preseason rankings and I think, for as well coached as both these teams are, I'm going to opt for the team with Faker and Bang here. I also think this line is a tad out of line and should have been closer to like a +100 / -120 type split so we're getting some line value here. For two teams that I have relatively evenly matched I'm going to take the dog for a couple units.

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Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -103 (5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Prop: M2 UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (1.5 units)

(this line has since moved to  -1.5 @ +106, I like it more there but I'm already in for 5 units)

I think people are a bit too high on Jin Air. They were a team that stole a lot of wins that they shouldn't have last year and they were all on the back of Teddy. In a metagame where he'll be playing and ADC maybe half the time I think a lot of this teams identity is lost. I'm not ruling out that they can reinvent themselves but we need to jump on numbers like this for the truly elite teams in the world like Kingzone and KT while we still can before the books adjust.

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