Monday, June 25, 2018

Betting: June 26th (LPL, LCK)

LCK  (Korea) 6/26 Schedule:

SK Telecom (+275, +1.5 @ -116)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
KT Rolster (-385, -1.5 @ -112)

Kingzone DragonX (-303, -1.5 @ +122)
@ (O/U 32:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
Griffin (+222, +1.5 @ -159)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -112  (4 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 18.5 kills (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 18.5 kills (1 unit)

Both of these teams appear to be figuring themselves out and after rough starts trying their hand at this bizarre metagame they've both moved toward something more traditional and it's worked out well. SKT dispatched Jin Air relatively cleanly (game 2 could have been faster) with Bang back on a marksman and KT have done similarly with Deft. These are two of the best players of all time at the position so unless this game turns into half a dozen marksman bans then I expect these two squads will try to play that way. Because of this I like the UNDER on total kills. This will be my first kill o/u bet for the season but I think it makes sense here. Both teams are averaging 20.2 and 18.8 total kills+deaths per game respectively which should say play the over but they've also both "found" themselves a bit so I like a low kill game something like 12-4. Two slower paced, more traditional looking games that KT will have a slight edge in due to the mismatch of Smeb + Thal. The moneyline is too pricey but I like KT quite a bit here. It's normally dangerous betting for sweeps in the most heated rivalry in esports, The Telecom War, but I think KT are a full tier stronger than SKT at SKT's very best and they're only just now figuring out how to be a fraction of themselves. If you like you can hedge this game by taking the exact 1-2 KT victory @ +230 but I'm going to stick to KT Rolster for the sweep even though I think it could be two very close games especially because more tradiitonal looking team compositions from both sides could result in that 50/50 coin flip situation we saw so much last season with double scaling teams. 


Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units) (initial bet)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +122 (3 units)  (ADD ON)

Griffin are the hot new kids on the block and Kingzone have been solid but not quite their dominant, stylish selves. Because of these factors I think the public and books are riding a bit too dirty on the Griffin train. Don't get me wrong I love this squad but this is a similar situation to our RNG vs Suning bet from the LPL last week. Grisled vets time to knock the upstarts off their high horse. This is what great teams do and I'm expecting a similar reality check effect here. Now don't get me wrong, Griffin are the real deal, they're a good and exciting young team unlike the middling Suning who just had a hot start but this is the perfect spot for Kingzone to remind the everyone why they were the best team in the world until the World Championship last year.


LOL Pro League (China) 6/26 Schedule:

FunPlus Phoenix (-250, -1.5 @ +129)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
TopSports Gaming (+188, +1.5 @ -169)

EDward Gaming (-455, -1.5 @ -127)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
Snake eSports (+318, +1.5 @ -102)

Handicapped: EDward -1.5 maps @ -127 (2 units)

I've got a sketchy feeling about this one because last season these teams were competitive with each other but Snake are in a bit of a tailspin relative to their Spring split. Limiting this to two units for a few reasons. Snake has side selection and there's a chance Snake come out to a fast start and cheese a win here which is why these lines are weird like this. I still think EDG will win 2-0 likely winning easily once and perhaps winning a close one as well.

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