Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Betting: June 27th (LCK, LPL)

LCK  (Korea) 6/27 Schedule:

MVP (+176, +1.5 @ -179)
@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Hanwha Life eSports (-233, -1.5 @ +137)

Gen.G eSports (-588, -1.5 @ -161)
@ (O/U 30:00 minutes, 17.5 total kills)
BBQ Olivers (+389, +1.5 @ +119)

Jin Air GW (+396, +1.5 @ +108)
@ (O/U ?? minutes, ?? total kills)

Afreeca Freecs (-625, -1.5 @ -141)

Handicapped: Hanwha Life -1.5 maps @ +135 (4 units)

I was thinking a lot about this match and how MVP have actually looked sunstantially better even in their losses this split and appear to be the 7th/8th best team while Jin Air and BBQ currently look like the bottom two teams. If the meta shifts back toward more traditional play I think Jin Air will be ok but for now Teddy is stuck in hell. BBQ look downright awful (which is why they're going to win tomorrow and wreck me watch). MVP are competitive though so I was a little hesitant on this wager but Hanwha appear to be in that 3rd-5th range somewhere. They may not be as good as the best teams but they're reliably beating the teams that they should and are competitive against the great teams. With a win over Afreeca, a game taken from Gen.G and one of two games taken off of Griffin this split I think this team can be relied upon to take care of business. Last season they were similar, never really underestimating the bottom of the table teams and always smashing them because the playoff hunt was going to be tough. I think they're in a similar boat this year and with an SKT victory this morning it will be all the more important to maintain course against these bad teams. I may up this later tonight.


Handicapped: Gen.G eSports -1.5 maps @ -122 (5 units) (initial wager)

PROP: Exact Score Gen.G 2-1 victory @ +220  (1 unit) (Add on)

PROP: Exact Score  BBQ 2-1 victory @ +647 (1.5 units) (second Add On)

This looks like easy money. BBQ are probably the worst team in the league, if not bottom two and Gen.G are currently in 2nd place with their only loss coming to KT Rolster. The thing is, this is BBQ and this is Gen.G (Samsung) and these teams rarely make any sense. Both of these teams burned me a lot last season, Gen.G inparticular and it was these exact kinds of situations in which they did so I'm a little gunshy here. Gen.G have a history of taking weeks or matches off and giving up huge upsets. Now BBQ have only a single game victory this season but it was against Griffin which is respectable. I got paranoid and hedged this one a little bit and might completely hedge with the +1.5 later if this gets in my head more but this just has a weird feeling about it. 


Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 maps @ -143 (5 units)

Similarly to BBQ vs Gen.G this one has a bit of a weird feeling to it. Gut is telling me that Jin Air will really show up in a do or die situation but my brain is telling me that they just can't seem to figure this metagame out while Afreeca appear to have it on lock. I think I'm trying to hard to talk myself out of this because I had a bad past two days. Afreeca are similar to HLE in that they almost always take care of business against bad teams. They don't take weeks off and usually smash the bottom of the table teams unlike some of the higher ceiling teams like KT and Gen.G who will randomly not show up for certain matches or lose from arrogance. Might up this later on. I probably should.


LPL  (China) 6/27 Schedule:

Royal Never Give Up (-1667, -1.5 @ -263)
@ (O/U 31:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)
Vici Gaming (+763, +1.5 @ +193)

Invictus Gaming (-714, -1.5 @ -147)
@ (O/U 30:00 minutes, 22.5 total kills)

BiliBili Gaming (+437, +1.5 @ +105)

PROP: RNG vs Vici MAP 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -111 (1.5 units)

PROP: RNG vs Vici MAP 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -111 (1.5 units)

I don't particularly like either of these lines. I don't think the +193 is enough to coax me into a unit or two on the underdog to steal a game here but I also think -263 is a bit too rich for my blood here especially with Vici side selection for some weird suprise. We'll stick with the unders because I do think this is going to end up being a stomping.


Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -147 (6 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -115 (1.5 units)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -115 (1.5 units)

I love me some Invictus in this spot. They dropped a game against JD and didn't look like themselves but this is a team that doesn't mess around. They fix their problems, don't underestimate anyone, and I think they'll bounce back with a stomping against a BiliBili squad that is really struggling in this meta game with their slower, scaling playstyle.

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