These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Kongdoo Monster @ Kingzone DragonX -900 (90%)
ROX Tigers -186 (65%)@ BBQ Olivers
ROCCAT @ Splyce -150 (60%)
Unicorns of Love @ FC Schalke 04 -186 (65%)
H2K @ Misfits Gaming -233 (70%)
Fnatic -186 (65%) @ Team Vitality
G2 eSports -233 @ Giants Gaming
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LCK March 3rd Schedule:
Kongdoo Monster (+424, +1.5 @ +163, M1 +313, M2 +313, M3 +313)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Kingzone DragonX (-769, -1.5 @ -227, M1 -500, M2 -500, M3 -500)
ROX Tigers (-213, -1.5 @ +165, M1 -143, M2 -145, M3 -145)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 19.5)
BBQ Olivers (+162, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +108, M2 +107, M3 +107)
Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 maps @ -227 (4 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 Kingzone First Blood @ -167 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Kingzone First Blood @ -167 (0.5 unit)
Kongdoo have had just a single game win in their past 8 matches (1-15). Sadly Kongdoo are in the terrible limbo spot where they're too good for the Korean Challenger scene but not good enough for the LCK. Yes they'll take wins here and there but they are more or less reliant on massive enemy mistakes. If you watch their most recent series' on this 8.3 patch they just seem so slow to make plays happen. At least with MVP, the other bottom team, we get aggression that just fails sometimes (something they weren't doing earlier in the season). Kongdoo had their one Galio comp and Zoe carry them to all their wins this season. Once you take those picks away they've shown just about nothing. Kingzone actually messed up against MVP, gave away 4 dragons (including 3 infernals) and still beat MVP in 38 minutes. I expect a thorough stomping in this one. I rarely lay this much on a handicapped bet but I'd be utterly shocked if Kingzone even drop a game here.
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Moneyline: ROX Tigers -213 (3 units)
Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +165 (2 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 37:00 @ -128 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
I discussed this a bit during the ROX vs KT series but I think this ROX team is just good. Lava has really emerged as an elite player surrounded by savvy veterans and they're showing the ability to beat elite teams like KT Rolster convincingly and if not, at least hang with them in games like they did against Kingzone. ROX have impressed me time and time again this season and I think we've seen enough to be convinced that this is actually an A Tier team and perhaps more. They've been really consistently beating everybody that they should be with their only losses coming against SKT (2x), Afreeca (1x), KT Rolster (1x), and Kingzone (1x).
Truth is, I think this BBQ team sucks and as frustrating as they've been to me I'm not going to be gun-shy on this. ROX have looked excellent of late and like a true playoff contender. If BBQ are gonna kill me again then so be it but even if ROX doesn't perform quite to their most recent level I still think they should 2-0 this.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BBQ have been one of the most unpredictable and frustrating teams this season for me (read: they've lost me a lot of units via the Kingzone and JAG upsets and taking a game off KSV who I now know is mediocre). So here's my thoughts.
- They got completely dismantled by MVP (one of the bottom two teams in the league, maybe three if your optimistic).
- Against Jin Air they were ahead in the first game against a Taliyah tempo composition and surprised Jin Air with the Leona pick and it STILL took them 50 minutes to close. In game two they once again had a lead and tempo advantage, this time against a Caitlyn + Taliyah tempo comp (which absolutely sucks if it gets behind) that also had an Illaoi on which SoHwan had one of the worst games I've seen him play in the past year or so overextending early to get himself camped and it still took a 59th minute stupid mistake by Jin Air for BBQ to close this game.
- Jin Air looked horrible in this game and these weren't forced errors either they were just really poor decisions and mechanical misplays by every single player on Jin Air.
- The fact that it took BBQ 59 minutes to close this game out and 50 minutes to close the first game out with the other team playing horribly and more or less handing you a lead on a silver platter is a bad look.
Truth is, I think this BBQ team sucks and as frustrating as they've been to me I'm not going to be gun-shy on this. ROX have looked excellent of late and like a true playoff contender. If BBQ are gonna kill me again then so be it but even if ROX doesn't perform quite to their most recent level I still think they should 2-0 this.
LPL (China) March 3rd Schedule:
Moneyline: LGD Gaming -128 (2 units)
Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +242 (0.5 units)
Yesterday I talked a lot about how this LGD team is significantly better than their schedule and then they go right ahead and give Vici their first match win of the season. The thing is this was a different Vici Gaming and it was talked about a lot on the cast. For the first time in, since who knows when, Vici were aggressive early and pushing the tempo of the game. LGD drafted to scale and got punished for it by a Vici team that is slowly but surely starting to gel with new member Swift and veteran Easyhoon showing why the ex-LCK connection can work. Swift took over this game one on Khazix and did the same in game two on Nidalee. I'm actually willing to throw LGD a bone here because I don't think they could have seen this Vici Gaming coming. It's still a bummer but I like the redemption aspect here.
FunPlus Phoenix on the other hand have have had three of the four match wins in the past four weeks against TopSports, JD, and Vici with their only loss coming to Invictus where they still took game two against the zero tank disrespect composition from IG. They've shown the ability to steal games off top teams but not consistently.
I'm putting two units on LGD here with the faith that the uptempo look Vici gave them will remind them that they can't go all in on late game even against other weaker teams. I also think side choice for counterpicks/priority picks matters more in the LPL than any other region because of the high skirmish, aggressive playstyle present. It's also possible that, having just played today, that LGD were perhaps looking past Vici to this match and their preparation was put here.
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Moneyline: Invictus Gaming (2 units)
A battle between two of the LPL's juggernaut organizations should be a great match. I think Invictus are just slightly more consistent and have a stronger roster top to bottom. The main tiebreaker to me is the top half of the map for IG. TheShy and Ning have been taking over games to relieve pressure for their two incredibly gifted carries in Rookie, who I think is one of the best players in the world over the past couple years and particularly now, and JackeyLove who has been on fire all season on seven different champion picks. Invictus are dealing an absurd 2306 damage per minute as a team (the highest in the world for the five major regions) and have racked up a gold differential per minute of +268 to . For comparison EDG are 1927 and +76.
It wouldn't shock me to see EDG take a game or perhaps even the series as these are two very strong teams I just think Invictus Gaming are the best team in China with, in my opinion, the best player in China in Rookie and in a region that fights and skirmishes as much as the LPL does, having superior individual players prevails significantly more often than in other leagues.
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European LCS March 3rd Schedule:
ROCCAT +132 @ Splyce -169
G2 eSports -244 @ Giants +173
H2K +170 @ Misfits -238
Fnatic -204 @ Team Vitality +150
Unicorns of Love +116 @ Schalke 04 -159
Absolutely brutal 0-5 day in EU yesterday and it appears this patch is just wild so I'll be limiting wagers to 2 units maximum today until I get a better feel for this patch and whether it's actually this high variance or if teams just had the wrong reads. Actually running short on time here, I'll have more detail for NA LCS, but these are all basically reads on game tempo and who I think will win and how strongly I feel about that possibility (2 units strong feeling).
Moneyline: Splyce -169 (2 units)
Prop: UNDER 38:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: UNDER 19.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -244 (2 units)
Prop: UNDER 37:00 @ -103 (1 unit)
Prop: UNDER 20.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)
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Moneyline: Misfits -238 (2 units)
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Moneyline: Fnatic -204 (2 units)
Prop: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
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Moneyline: Schalke 04 -159 (2 units)
Prop: OVER 19.5 kills @ -109 (0.5 unit)
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TCL (Turkey) March 3rd Schedule:
Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Galakticos UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Moneyline: TEAM AURORA @ SuperMassive TNG UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
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NA LCS March 3rd Schedule:
(No wagers, book is down)
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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