KSV eSports (-208, -1.5 @ +145, M1 -175, M2 -175, M3 -175)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
SK Telecom (+160, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +135, M3 +135)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
SK Telecom (+160, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +135, M3 +135)
ROX Tigers (-313, -1.5 @ -111, M1 -244, M2 -244, M3 -244)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Kongdoo Monster (+227, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +181, M2 +181, M3 +181)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Kongdoo Monster (+227, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +181, M2 +181, M3 +181)
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Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ -102 (4 units)
A 2-0 win here would go a long way to securing the 5th seed for ROX Tigers and eliminating SK Telecom and Kongdoo are absolutely dreadful. For green playoff teams this is a spot where they'd punt a really important game but I think ROX are the real deal and Kongdoo are enough worse that I can't see this happening any other way but a 2-0.I got in for four units and the line immediately moved to -1.5 @ -111 so get in while the gettin' is good that's actually great value for a match I expect to be extremely one sided.
A 2-0 win here would go a long way to securing the 5th seed for ROX Tigers and eliminating SK Telecom and Kongdoo are absolutely dreadful. For green playoff teams this is a spot where they'd punt a really important game but I think ROX are the real deal and Kongdoo are enough worse that I can't see this happening any other way but a 2-0.I got in for four units and the line immediately moved to -1.5 @ -111 so get in while the gettin' is good that's actually great value for a match I expect to be extremely one sided.
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Moneyline: SK Telecom +160 (3 units)
Call me gullible but I still believe in SKT. I mean really what I believe in is that this KSV team is still really two faced and have still been incapable of creating leads for themselves. They only win on mistakes from their enemies and I doubt people are going to keep letting Crown have Velkoz or the Faker will have something cooked up for it. SKT also have side choice so I'm going with the moneyline here. I think they learned not to start Blank last match but then again I thought they learned that earlier in the season. This is more a bet on against KSV than it is for SKT and admittedly it's a bit of a gut shot.
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LPL March 18th Schedule:
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LMS (Taiwan) March 18th Schedule:
North American LCS March 18th Schedule:
Moneyline: Echo Fox -130 (2 units)
Moneyline: TSM -161 (3 units)
I don't really feel too strongly about this slate because it's hard to tell which of the bottom teams will show up to play and which won't but I like Echo Fox and TSM quite a bit today. I'll be doing a lot of live betting for NA LCS today now that I'm home but I'm also gonna run some parlays with the heavy favorites to try to gather some value where we can.
(UPDATE: Live bet FlyQuest @ +207 once they picked Sneaky the first time and before baron for one unit. Kog comps with huge frontline like this against single frontline is really really powerful.)
(UPDATE 2: Added 2 units to Echo Fox @ +115 even with sub announcement. Like the draft quite a bit.)
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(UPDATE 3: So we get five tiebreakers. I'm taking Echo Fox +120 2 units for the rematch for first.)
(UPDATE 4: Team Liquid ML: -143 5 units. I really think Team Liquid have looked great and while I'm sure C9 will turn things around I think TL have looked better and have side selection. I also think Impact has looked WAY better of late than Licorice.)
(UPDATE 5: Going 5 units on TSM -227. Not a great line value considering how solid I think Clutch Gaming are as a team but I do think TSM have side selection and can really punish Clutch in the draft. Bjergsen is demanding too many bans and I think Hauntzer has enough of an edge over Solo that it's going to be really challenging to Clutch here. TSM have also shown much better tempo play than CG who have been mostly sticking to one playstyle. TSM have multiple outs to win this while CG only have one. As good as Febiven has been, Bjergsen is one of the few mid laners that can match him. TSM also get side selection.)
(UPDATE 6: Going 2 units on Liquid +124. Side selection to take the Ryze or Gangplank from TSM seems quite good. Liquid have elected to take blue. I'm going to be really quick on the trigger finger to hedge this if need be but I like Team Liquid in a best of one like this. It's mostly a line value bet. I think these two teams are more or less even, maybe a slight edge to TSM something like -120 to +101. I'll take the +124)
(UPDATE 7: Adding 2 units to Liquid at +100. I like their Kog draft more even against Zac + Orianna. Sej/Braum can disrupt. I think TL can 1-3-1 OR front to back better than TSM can and Ryze can bridge the gap to the mid/late game for TL. Added a unit each to UNDER 20.5 kills and OVER 36:00 as well @ -116.)
LPL March 18th Schedule:
Rogue Warriors (-909, -1.5 @ -179, M1 -455, M2 -435, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
OMG (+523, +1.5 @ +135, M1 +309, M2 +293, M3 +275)
RNG (-233, -1.5 @ +137, M1 -192, M2 -185, M3 -179)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Snake eSports (+157, +1.5 @ 196, M1 +147, M2 +141, M3 +135)
Handicapped: RW -1.5 maps @ -179 (3 units)
I know OMG showed some signs of life but this RW team is legit good and this should be an easy 2-0 trouncing. I'd take the unders on game time if they were posted but I haven't seen anything yet.
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@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
OMG (+523, +1.5 @ +135, M1 +309, M2 +293, M3 +275)
RNG (-233, -1.5 @ +137, M1 -192, M2 -185, M3 -179)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Snake eSports (+157, +1.5 @ 196, M1 +147, M2 +141, M3 +135)
Handicapped: RW -1.5 maps @ -179 (3 units)
I know OMG showed some signs of life but this RW team is legit good and this should be an easy 2-0 trouncing. I'd take the unders on game time if they were posted but I haven't seen anything yet.
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Moneyline: Snake eSports +176 (2 units)
Handicapped: Snake +1.5 maps @ -179 (4 units)
I have absolutely no idea why RNG is favored by this much in this match. This should be close to a push. I know they've won every single series since Uzi has returned but they also haven't faced a team as good as Snake yet. The closest comparison would be EDG but I think Snake are better. This should be closer to a push. I could see RNG being -120 to -101 or something like that but this is just outright stupid. Snake are a really good team, arguably the 3rd or 4th best in China and RNG are in the same spot to me. Snake also get side selection and this match is being played at their home venue, the 'Snake Pit' which has been the only really effective homefield advantage in the LPL so far for the teams that have home stadiums. I'm not saying Snake is necessarily a better team than RNG but this line is way WAY out of whack and I think these two teams are more or less even.
Handicapped: Snake +1.5 maps @ -179 (4 units)
I have absolutely no idea why RNG is favored by this much in this match. This should be close to a push. I know they've won every single series since Uzi has returned but they also haven't faced a team as good as Snake yet. The closest comparison would be EDG but I think Snake are better. This should be closer to a push. I could see RNG being -120 to -101 or something like that but this is just outright stupid. Snake are a really good team, arguably the 3rd or 4th best in China and RNG are in the same spot to me. Snake also get side selection and this match is being played at their home venue, the 'Snake Pit' which has been the only really effective homefield advantage in the LPL so far for the teams that have home stadiums. I'm not saying Snake is necessarily a better team than RNG but this line is way WAY out of whack and I think these two teams are more or less even.
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LMS (Taiwan) March 18th Schedule:
J Team (-213)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Machi eSports (+153)
(waiting on lines)
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Turkish Champions League March 18th:
SuperMassive -1429 @ Galakticos +611
Royal Bandits -345 @ YouthCrew +225
Team AURORA -244 @ HWA Gaming +168
1907 Fenerbahce -227 @ Dark Passage +163
Prop: Super @ Gal UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)
Prop: RB @ YC UNDER 31:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: AUR @ HWA UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: FB @ DP UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Once again a continuation of this trend betting. Rough day yesterday but barely. This bet has been great for me all year. Under 30 may seem extreme but SuperMassive has defeated Galakticos under 24 minutes twice and under 29 the the other time.
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LCL (CIS Region) Playoffs March 18th:
Gambit (-1111, -1.5 @ -435, -2.5 @ +103)
@
Team Just Alpha (+513, +1.5 @ +261, +2.5 @ -149)
Handicapped: Gambit -2.5 @ +103 (2 units)
RoX got stunned yesterday by M19 but Gambit are the best team in this region and as we discussed yesterday it's not particularly close. M19 had some early game chops. Team Just Alpha are kind of just the best of the rag tag bunch for the rest of the league. I expect this to be a 3-0 stomping. Gambit has beaten TJA both times they've played before and while one of those games was a close 39 minute afair early in the season the other was an absolute blowout. I'd be shocked if this wasn't a 3-0 so let's hope lightning doesn't strike twice here in the LCL.
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@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
Machi eSports (+153)
(waiting on lines)
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Turkish Champions League March 18th:
SuperMassive -1429 @ Galakticos +611
Royal Bandits -345 @ YouthCrew +225
Team AURORA -244 @ HWA Gaming +168
1907 Fenerbahce -227 @ Dark Passage +163
Prop: Super @ Gal UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (2 units)
Prop: RB @ YC UNDER 31:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: AUR @ HWA UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: FB @ DP UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Once again a continuation of this trend betting. Rough day yesterday but barely. This bet has been great for me all year. Under 30 may seem extreme but SuperMassive has defeated Galakticos under 24 minutes twice and under 29 the the other time.
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LCL (CIS Region) Playoffs March 18th:
Gambit (-1111, -1.5 @ -435, -2.5 @ +103)
@
Team Just Alpha (+513, +1.5 @ +261, +2.5 @ -149)
Handicapped: Gambit -2.5 @ +103 (2 units)
RoX got stunned yesterday by M19 but Gambit are the best team in this region and as we discussed yesterday it's not particularly close. M19 had some early game chops. Team Just Alpha are kind of just the best of the rag tag bunch for the rest of the league. I expect this to be a 3-0 stomping. Gambit has beaten TJA both times they've played before and while one of those games was a close 39 minute afair early in the season the other was an absolute blowout. I'd be shocked if this wasn't a 3-0 so let's hope lightning doesn't strike twice here in the LCL.
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North American LCS March 18th Schedule:
Moneyline: TSM -161 (3 units)
I don't really feel too strongly about this slate because it's hard to tell which of the bottom teams will show up to play and which won't but I like Echo Fox and TSM quite a bit today. I'll be doing a lot of live betting for NA LCS today now that I'm home but I'm also gonna run some parlays with the heavy favorites to try to gather some value where we can.
(UPDATE: Live bet FlyQuest @ +207 once they picked Sneaky the first time and before baron for one unit. Kog comps with huge frontline like this against single frontline is really really powerful.)
(UPDATE 2: Added 2 units to Echo Fox @ +115 even with sub announcement. Like the draft quite a bit.)
------------------------------------------
(UPDATE 3: So we get five tiebreakers. I'm taking Echo Fox +120 2 units for the rematch for first.)
(UPDATE 4: Team Liquid ML: -143 5 units. I really think Team Liquid have looked great and while I'm sure C9 will turn things around I think TL have looked better and have side selection. I also think Impact has looked WAY better of late than Licorice.)
(UPDATE 5: Going 5 units on TSM -227. Not a great line value considering how solid I think Clutch Gaming are as a team but I do think TSM have side selection and can really punish Clutch in the draft. Bjergsen is demanding too many bans and I think Hauntzer has enough of an edge over Solo that it's going to be really challenging to Clutch here. TSM have also shown much better tempo play than CG who have been mostly sticking to one playstyle. TSM have multiple outs to win this while CG only have one. As good as Febiven has been, Bjergsen is one of the few mid laners that can match him. TSM also get side selection.)
(UPDATE 6: Going 2 units on Liquid +124. Side selection to take the Ryze or Gangplank from TSM seems quite good. Liquid have elected to take blue. I'm going to be really quick on the trigger finger to hedge this if need be but I like Team Liquid in a best of one like this. It's mostly a line value bet. I think these two teams are more or less even, maybe a slight edge to TSM something like -120 to +101. I'll take the +124)
(UPDATE 7: Adding 2 units to Liquid at +100. I like their Kog draft more even against Zac + Orianna. Sej/Braum can disrupt. I think TL can 1-3-1 OR front to back better than TSM can and Ryze can bridge the gap to the mid/late game for TL. Added a unit each to UNDER 20.5 kills and OVER 36:00 as well @ -116.)
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