MVP (-213, -1.5 @ +141, M1 -185, M2 -185, M3 -154)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+162, +1.5 @ -185, M1 +141, M2 +140, M3 +118)
SK Telecom (-357, -1.5 @ -103, M1 -263, M2 -256, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+259, +1.5 @ -127, M1 +194, M2 +188, M3 +168)
Handicapped: Kongdoo +1.5 maps @ -185 (2 units)
Prop: Exact Score MVP 2-1 @ +234 (1 unit)
Prop: Game 3 (decider) played YES @ +114 (0.5 unit)
A theme of the day is teams playing "their Super Bowl." It'll pop up a couple of times. The expression is used often in traditional sports often for teams that have been eliminated playing a hated rival or trying to play for some respect. I think Kongdoo are clearly the worst team in the LCK, forever stuck in that "too good for the Challenger scene but not good enough for the LCK" place at the bottom of the standings. Still this is a professional Korean team that has taken games off of much better teams than MVP. This will be Kongdoo playing for respect as it is likely the easiest game they have left. They have the unfortunate displeasure of facing SKT and ROX teams that absolutely MUST WIN their upcoming matchups against Kongdoo so I can see Kongdoo being up for this game inparticular. MVP have looked much better in the past couple weeks but this still isn't a good team and they're not exactly playing for much either. I think with side selection and no more really "winnable" games left on the schedule for Kongdoo this could be their "last hurrah" before relegations. I like them to take a game but probably not the series. If you believe more than I do feel free to take the plunge on the moneyline but I'm going to stick to the handicap.
Prop: Exact Score MVP 2-1 @ +234 (1 unit)
Prop: Game 3 (decider) played YES @ +114 (0.5 unit)
A theme of the day is teams playing "their Super Bowl." It'll pop up a couple of times. The expression is used often in traditional sports often for teams that have been eliminated playing a hated rival or trying to play for some respect. I think Kongdoo are clearly the worst team in the LCK, forever stuck in that "too good for the Challenger scene but not good enough for the LCK" place at the bottom of the standings. Still this is a professional Korean team that has taken games off of much better teams than MVP. This will be Kongdoo playing for respect as it is likely the easiest game they have left. They have the unfortunate displeasure of facing SKT and ROX teams that absolutely MUST WIN their upcoming matchups against Kongdoo so I can see Kongdoo being up for this game inparticular. MVP have looked much better in the past couple weeks but this still isn't a good team and they're not exactly playing for much either. I think with side selection and no more really "winnable" games left on the schedule for Kongdoo this could be their "last hurrah" before relegations. I like them to take a game but probably not the series. If you believe more than I do feel free to take the plunge on the moneyline but I'm going to stick to the handicap.
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Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ -103 (5 units)
With BBQ mathematically eliminated from any sort of playoff contention and locked for one of the relegation spots I can't see them being up for this game. SKT are no longer the boogeyman that they once were so I think the "This is our Super Bowl" angle doesn't really apply here anymore. BBQ have been horrid outside of their random, scattered wins throughout the season. This is a tremendously inconsistent team that more or less only won in great spots like coming out of the break, when teams were relaxing into an easy part of the schedule, or starting subs. They've shown some ability to create and they definitely play aggressively but they shoot themselves in the foot just as often as their opponents do.
SKT more or less need to win out to clinch a playoff spot with KSV winning again this morning. Unless ROX or KSV completely implodes they'll need to get to 10 wins and perhaps need to have game wins in hand for the tiebreak scenario against ROX or KSV. I'll quickly review each teams next matches and put the result I'm anticipating in parenthesis:
- SK Telecom: BBQ (W), KSV (W), MVP (W), Kongdoo (W). End Record: 10-8
- KSV: SKT (L), ROX (L?), Kingzone (L). End Record: 9 - 9
- ROX: Kongdoo (W), KSV (W), Jin Air (W?). End Record: 10-8
You can see just how close this race is. KSV have the hardest schedule moving forward while I think SKT have the easiest of the three. ROX could very easily win all three or lose two it's hard to tell. KSV have won their last two series but to be perfectly honest they haven't looked that great doing it. They're a slow starting team that have barely held on enough for their late game comps to come on line. Jin Air really botched a potential 2-0 this morning because Grace had perhaps his worst day on the rift of his young career. It happens. KSV have been handed games in each of their last two series. Game one today and game two against KT. They're not really doing a lot to create on their own and are just capitalizing on mistakes from other teams which is a way you can play but not a reliable one against really strong teams so I could see them losing out.
Anyway, I love a driven, must-win team with the greatest player of all time in Faker to take care of business and since game wins could potentially matter I fully expect SKT to take no prisoners and stomp the down-and-out BBQ Olivers.
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LPL March 14th Schedule:
LPL March 14th Schedule:
EDward Gaming (-588, -1.5 @ -149, M1 -345, M2 -385, M3 -278)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
TopSports Gaming (+387, +1.5 @ +114, M1 +248, M2 +273, M3 +203)
Vici Gaming (+222, +1.5 @ -143, M1 +168, M2 +178, M3 +147)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
JD Gaming (-303, -1.5 @109, M1 -222, M2 -238, M3 -192)
Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -149 (3 units)
EDG have given up a lot of single game losses to weaker teams but I feel pretty good about the 2-0 here. EDG just soundly defeated JD Gaming who are ahead of the bottom teams but not quite into the upper echelon and lost a close, hard-fought series to RNG on Monday. EDG have faced WE, Suning, Rogue Warriors, Invictus, JD, and RNG in their last six matches. That's a brutal schedule covering just about all of the "best" teams besides Snake and maybe BiliBili. They've been in really good form of late and it's typically tough to see that when they've lost three of their last four but you need to consider the strength of their opponents. EDG is still one of the strongest teams in the LPL and they should crush their second half schedule and I think that starts here with a sweep of the abysmal TopSports.
EDG have given up a lot of single game losses to weaker teams but I feel pretty good about the 2-0 here. EDG just soundly defeated JD Gaming who are ahead of the bottom teams but not quite into the upper echelon and lost a close, hard-fought series to RNG on Monday. EDG have faced WE, Suning, Rogue Warriors, Invictus, JD, and RNG in their last six matches. That's a brutal schedule covering just about all of the "best" teams besides Snake and maybe BiliBili. They've been in really good form of late and it's typically tough to see that when they've lost three of their last four but you need to consider the strength of their opponents. EDG is still one of the strongest teams in the LPL and they should crush their second half schedule and I think that starts here with a sweep of the abysmal TopSports.
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Handicapped: Vici Gaming +1.5 maps @ -143 (2 units)
Prop: Exact Score JDG 2-1 @ +224 (0.5 units)
The Eastern conference in the LPL has a very strong Top 4 teams making it really difficult for the more than competent JD Gaming to make a playoff spot. That being said they've shown a tendency to drop games or even series to really bad teams in the past and I think for as sloppy and hilarious this new-look Vici Gaming is I think if they can learn how to actually get things off of their aggression they could steal some games. Vici were actually ahead of Rogue Warriors in tempo for the first half of Game Two but just couldn't get objectives off of their aggression. They're on the same page and forcing plays to happen but they just aren't converting. JD play fast and loose and rely on their players individual skills to win games so they either win fast or lose fast in most situations.
This is a weird spot all around. JD Gaming are now three series behind the #4 seed in the East held by RNG but they've also gotten through the hardest part of their schedule and have a ton of "easy" games on the slate moving forward. This feels like a spot for a clean 2-0 like they did against OMG a few days ago but I'm going with Vici. This one is a bit counterintuitive but Vici have a lot of fight to them and while JD needs to start winning series, I think they could easily drop a game to a Vici snowball, probably compliments of Easyhoon if Swift can actually get him to play a little more aggressive.
Like I said, Vici almost took a game off of the Top 4 Rogue Warriors with an early game snowball but got a little ahead of themselves and this JD team isn't a great defensive squad. Once they lose the lead they typically lose the game, more of the time than most teams because of their run and gun, fast and loose playstyle. I like the underdogs +1.5 maps for a couple units here. I'd even consider a cheap play on the Vici moneyline if you're into the upset. I might add that later. Sloppy teams like JD punt "easy" games like this and Vici has been turning up the aggression recently. That said this could easily end in a 2-0 stomp by JD but I think there is like a 60+% chance Vici take a game.
Prop: Exact Score JDG 2-1 @ +224 (0.5 units)
The Eastern conference in the LPL has a very strong Top 4 teams making it really difficult for the more than competent JD Gaming to make a playoff spot. That being said they've shown a tendency to drop games or even series to really bad teams in the past and I think for as sloppy and hilarious this new-look Vici Gaming is I think if they can learn how to actually get things off of their aggression they could steal some games. Vici were actually ahead of Rogue Warriors in tempo for the first half of Game Two but just couldn't get objectives off of their aggression. They're on the same page and forcing plays to happen but they just aren't converting. JD play fast and loose and rely on their players individual skills to win games so they either win fast or lose fast in most situations.
This is a weird spot all around. JD Gaming are now three series behind the #4 seed in the East held by RNG but they've also gotten through the hardest part of their schedule and have a ton of "easy" games on the slate moving forward. This feels like a spot for a clean 2-0 like they did against OMG a few days ago but I'm going with Vici. This one is a bit counterintuitive but Vici have a lot of fight to them and while JD needs to start winning series, I think they could easily drop a game to a Vici snowball, probably compliments of Easyhoon if Swift can actually get him to play a little more aggressive.
Like I said, Vici almost took a game off of the Top 4 Rogue Warriors with an early game snowball but got a little ahead of themselves and this JD team isn't a great defensive squad. Once they lose the lead they typically lose the game, more of the time than most teams because of their run and gun, fast and loose playstyle. I like the underdogs +1.5 maps for a couple units here. I'd even consider a cheap play on the Vici moneyline if you're into the upset. I might add that later. Sloppy teams like JD punt "easy" games like this and Vici has been turning up the aggression recently. That said this could easily end in a 2-0 stomp by JD but I think there is like a 60+% chance Vici take a game.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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