Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Betting: March 21st (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 21st Schedule:

KSV eSports (-208, -1.5 @ +144, M1 -179, M2 -182, M3 -161)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+162, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +139, M3 +124)


Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -526, M2 -588, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Jin Air (+519, +1.5 @ +167, M1 +348, M2 +378, M3 +275)


Prop: Exact Score Jin Air 2-0 @ +1428  (0.25 unit)

Prop: Game 3 to be played YES @ +216 (0.5 unit)

The -1.5 @ -222 is a tad rich for me in a game that doesn't really matter for Kingzone who have already locked up the #1 spot. To me theres three ways this goes. 

  • Kingzone play to not reveal anything to anybody, continue playing as if their first seed isn't locked up. If this was the case I'd say this is a 2-0 for them.
  • Kingzone try to highlight a pick to scare other teams with going into playoffs. I think this is less likely because of the long amount of time between the end of the season and the Spring Finals in Korea. It's possible though. If they choose this out then it's possible they drop a game with said pick.
  • Kingzone just pick or play to style on Jin Air and get punished for it. Some of these Jin Air players are playing for jobs against substitutes and practice squad players so their season isn't over. They've also shown some fight against Afreeca and KSV in their previous two matches and while I think Kingzone is on another level I do think it's possible for Jin Air to randomly steal this series if Kingzone decides to goof around too much.
I don't like the cost of betting Kingzone in a match that doesn't really matter to them. If they were still trying to lock up #1 I'd go heavy on the -1.5 @ -222 but they really have nothing to play for here other than momentum and to perhaps show something they want to get banned so it's completely reasonable to think Jin Air could take this. I'm putting a couple lottery tickets down. One on the Jin Air 2-0 and one on the series going to three games.

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Handicapped: ROX Tigers +1.5 maps @ -189 (4 units)

Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +435  (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Score KSV 2-1 @ +227  (1 unit)

I want to say KSV have looked more "in form" but the truth is it's just the Velkoz pick for Crown and mistakes from other teams. I think ROX are a better team despite their recent struggles. ROX could actually steal the #4 seed still and a 2-0 would put them ahead of KSV in breaks and tie them in match score with only Jin Air remaining. KSV have to face Kingzone but we're not sure how much KZ will care about that game.

I don't think KSV "are back" like everyone else does. I think they've benefited greatly from botched early games by their opposition and teams refusing to take away or punish the Velkoz. They're the same passive team they've been all year, teams have just gotten a little sloppy against them. ROX aren't a sloppy team. Side selection and KSV's wins not impressing me are what's driving me to think this will be a 2-1 KSV victory but I legitimately think ROX could just win this outright and even sweep. I'll put a unit on the ROX 2-0 because I think this series will end up with the two-faced KSV either not showing up and getting 2-0'd or KSV showing up and having a long, hard fought three game series that could go either way.

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LPL March 21st Schedule:



OMG (-132, -1.5 @ +216, M1 -130, M2 -125, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Vici Gaming (+103, +1.5 @ -294, M1 +100, M2 -103, M3 -104)


Snake eSports (-101)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???)
EDward Gaming (-120, -1.5 @ +234)



Moneyline: Vici Gaming +103  (2 units)

Prop: Exact Score Vici 2-1 @ +278 (0.5 units)

These are two of the worst teams in the LPL but I think Vici are learning their new, aggressive playstyle on the fly and are only going to get better at it (they can't get much worse). Vici 2-0'd LGD two weeks ago and stole a game off of JD in their last match. I'm not saying they're a good team or anything but things are improving ever so slightly.

This is mostly saying that OMG aren't better than anybody and I think Vici can win this one. OMG give up first blood 68% of the time and Vici, while struggling to capitalize, have been getting it in most of their recent games. I think Swift can carry this one. It's a little loose and I don't normally like betting on two bad teams but I'll put a couple units on Vici here. 

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Moneyline: EDward Gaming -120 (3 units)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +234 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact Score EDG 2-1 @ +256 (0.5 units)


This was up on my book early in the day and then down so I don't have all the info in front of me anymore. I think EDG are just slightly better. Their strength of opponent is a lot stronger and they still have a similar record to Snake who have been reeling of late. My one reservation about this match is that Snake match up really well against how EDG like to play. Ray and Flandre are both carry top laners and both teams play well around their star ADCs in Kryst4l and iBoy. Snake 2-0d last time but that was the second match of the season and EDG proceeded to win their next 5 series. Snake got absolutely stomped by RNG and RW in their two most recent matches and while I don't think EDG is on quite the same level I do think they're built similarly. I like EDG to win this 2-1. Scout and Meiko are enough better than their opposition, Ray can play carry into carry against Flandre if it comes to it, and Haro and SofM are relatively even to me. These factors along with side choice and stylistic similarities make me thing this won't be another Snake 2-0 but an EDG 2-0 or more likely a 2-1.




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