Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Betting: March 28th (LPL)

LPL March 28th Schedule:



Invictus Gaming (-5000, -1.5 @ -435, M1 -1111, M2 -1429, M3 -1000)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 20.5)
TopSports Gaming (+1552, +1.5 @ +300, M1 +569, M2 +677, M3 +526)




Royal Never Give Up (-213, -1.5 @ +165, M1 -161, M2 -159, M3 -154)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Suning Gaming (+152, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +124, M2 +122, M3 +118)



Moneyline: Royal Never Give Up -213 (4 units)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ +165 (0.5 units)


Suning had a stunning win against the #2 ranked Rogue Warriors Monday and as much as I like this Suning team I need to cast a bit of a wet blanket here. Rogue Warriors drafted a single carry Caitlyn composition. This team has tried this in the past against bad teams but Suning aren't a bad team. For those out of the know, Caitlyn can be a strong late game carry but she can't solo carry like a Kogmaw or a Sivir. It's just a bad idea to have a 1-core. Rogue Warriors tried and failed. They also gave up Swain and had a borderline game ending botched gank in the top lane very early in the game. In game two Suning level one cheesed Flawless in his own jungle and denied him his red as well as killed him which is essentially game over at the professional level against competent teams. 

So a botched gank and terrible draft followed by a really weird level one mind lapse made this 2-0 look more impressive than it actually was. Rogue Warriors are significantly better than this and Suning are a good team that punished the mistakes. The point I'm getting at is not to be overly impressed with the Suning 2-0 over Rogue Warriors. Royal Never Give Up have lost two series in a row to Invictus and JDG. The JDG series was two long, hard fought games that could have gone either way and Invictus is... well they're Invictus. Prior to these two game RNG rattled off 7 match wins in a row. 

While I think these two are closer than outsiders might think, RNG is the stronger squad by a decent amount despite the record. H4cker and Knight have been running wild but I think an uncharacteristically bad series by Doinb and Flawless contributed to that and I think Karsa and Xiaohu are slightly better players even when Doinb and Flawless are playing well. I also think Suning had a good read on the metagame but the rest of the league now has some film to see how they're going to prioritize. I don't like the 2-0 as much here since Suning do have side selection but I like RNG to win this series.


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Parlay: Invictus -1.5 @ -435 and RNG -213  (1 unit)

The lines are just too absurd on the IG/TSG series to bet it straight or even with a handicap. If you think TSG can steal a game it's a fine gamble to take since they've randomly stolen games but I'm not touching it other than a parlay for some value.

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