These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
H2k -120 (54.5%) @ Unicorns of Love
ROCCAT @ Giants -150 (60%)
Vitality @ S04 -120 (54.5%)
Splyce @ G2 -300 (75%)
Misfits @ Fnatic -186 (65%)
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LPL March 1st Schedule:
Suning Gaming (-145, -1.5 @ +190, M1 -125, M2 -125, M3 -125)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
OMG (+113, +1.5 @ -270, M1 -109, M2 -109, M3 -109)
Vici Gaming (+216, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +177, M2 +177, M3 +177)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5)
LGD Gaming (-303, -1.5 @ -111, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
Moneyline: Suning Gaming -145 (2 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (0.5 unit)
I desparately want to hammer this game because Suning have been the better team in more or less every possible way but there's an interesting wrinkle to this one. OMG are going to be playing in their brand new "home" venue for tomorrow's match. For those that don't know, the LPL is divided into the East and West conferences based on the home headquarters of the teams in that division. A couple of the teams actually have home stadiums the games are played in (Snake, OMG, and LGD). Construction finished up and this will be their first game in the new stadium with an opening ceremony featuring Dada777 and Gogoing, two of OMG's strongest players of all time.
Season 8 has been about the teams that "show up" and while I like to think OMG will do so in their brand new facility I can't help but think the better team will be just as motivated to play spoiler. However, this is an out of conference game for Suning and they have to physically travel from their home in Eastern China to OMG's home in the Western providence of Chengdu. Not only that but Suning also have to face Snake eSports next week who ALSO have a home stadium in Chongquing so this is a bit of a real road trip for them. Perhaps that's why this line is where it is because prior to knowing OMG would be playing in their new stadium I would have put this line at something around -233 (70%) in favor of Suning. This would have been a 3 or 4 unit wager and probably a half or full unit on the sweep as well but I'm inclined to hang back a little on this especially because it's a relatively new scenario to League eSports. Snake lost their home stadium debut but it was against Invictus who are just steamrolling everybody so I won't hold that against them.
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Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -111 (2 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -128 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (0.5 unit)
LGD have had a nightmarish schedule recently with both Invictus and Snake before the New Year's break and BiliBili afterwards. They took games off of Snake and Invictus, 2-1'd new hotshots Rogue Warriors and 2-1'd RNG. LGD are better than their record shows and I expect them to go on a bit of a run in the next couple of weeks when their schedule eases up.
Vici went the first seven series with one game win but have two in their last two matches one against TopSports and one against RNG. Easyhoon and Swift are excellent players capable of carrying a team and with just two series together under their belts there's room for this team to improve. I mean you can't really get much worse than 3 -18.
With that said I'm going with LGD here. They've shown better against better teams than Vici and while I'm not betting the house on it I do feel good about a couple units on the sweep here.
League Masters Series (Taiwan) March 1st Schedule:
Flash Wolves (-526, -1.5 @ -167, M1 -357, M2 -357, M3 -357)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Machi eSports (+340, +1.5 @ +123, M1 +244, M2 +245, M3 +245)
J Team (-588, -1.5 @ -164, M1 -370, M2 -370, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Hong Kong Attitude (353, +1.5 @ +120, M1 +256, M2 +256, M3 +256)
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -167 (3 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 Flash Wolves First Blood @ -175 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Flash Wolves First Blood @ -175 (0.5 unit)
Flash Wolves are just dumpstering the LMS in downright dominating fashion. Much like SuperMassive in the TCL, this is like James Harden showing up to a college basketball game but hey, at least it's not a high school league? I even think J Team and G-Rex aren't particularly great and their numbers are propped up by the bottom 5 being so horrifically bad by professional standards. It's weird. This region used to produce two good teams but I think that may be down to one. It's possible that by the end of the year, an entire two seasons of playing against Flash Wolves will improve everyone but unless Flash Wolves decide to take a nap for this match it'll be a beatdown.
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Handicapped: J Team - 1.5 maps @ -164 (2 units)
I'm not going to roll any props on this one because J Team tend to play a lot of protect the carry comps which can take a long time to scale and often surrender early pressure in exchange for mid and late game superiority. I still think they'll handedly 2-0 but 33 minutes is a pretty tight window. Wouldn't surprise me if they hit the under but I'm avoiding it for now.
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European LCS March 2nd Schedule:
H2k +108 @ Unicorns of Love -143
Team ROCCAT -101 @ Giants Gaming -130
Team Vitality -119 @ FC Schalke 04 -114
Splyce +190 @ G2 eSports -263
Misfits +133 @ Fnatic -175
Moneyline: H2k +108 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 19.5 total kills @ -116 (2 units)
Both of these bottom of the league squads look like they're finally figuring themselves out a bit. The Shook and Selfie addition to H2K has made a big difference in early macro decisions and overall stability. UOL have just decided to embrace the aggression and it's worked out for them. I'm going with H2K here because I do think they're a slightly better roster and have looked better to me. The numbers won't dictate that but their in game decisions have been so much better while Unicorns have honestly been a little bit lucky to have so many coinflip scenarios work out in their favor. I'm also taking the over on total kills for this game because in five of the last six games these teams have played (not against each other), there have been over 25 kills and in three of those games over 30. Unicorns of Love play to fight constantly now whether the game is long or short so I absolutely LOVE the OVER 19.5 kills here even more than the moneyline.
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Moneyline: Giants Gaming -130 (1 unit)
It's extremely difficult to get a read on this ROCCAT team. They look brilliant at times and absolutely horrible at times and it's not because they're particularly risky either they just play excellently one match and horribly in another. What's insane about Europe this split is that third and last place are only separated by three wins. Fnatic and G2 appear to be the cream of the crop and they'll both finish with 11+ win records in my estimation, but the rest is a total crapshoot. Vitality faltering, Misfits heating up, Splyce SOMEHOW 6-6 and both the bottom tier teams in UOL and H2K starting to find themselves all adds up to make this really interesting. (also I hate best of ones...)
Anyway I'm going with Giants here mostly because I think Ruin and Djoko have a good chance to take over this game especially with side preference but really "good ROCCAT" could just show up and rofl stomp so who knows. I like Giants for a unit. I'm going to avoid props for this game because these two teams have had really inconsistent efforts in total match time and kills with wide ranges for both.
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Moneyline: Schalke 04 -114 (2 units)
For the conductor of the "Team Vitality is overrated" hype train I feel awfully weird about this game. This feels like a get right situation after two weeks of straight up flailing and Vitality have to face Fnatic on Saturday so perhaps they're up for this game but I'm still not quitting on this Schalke team. They've had two losses strictly on baron throws and that's an easy enough problem to fix that I think their superior players can come out on top here plus Nukeduck and Pride can keep Jiizuke down especially with side choice. Another aspect to consider is the top lane meta shifting towards Vizicsacsi's specialty picks like Kennen, Sion, Camille, and the sneaky Camille counter of POPPY who just might see some play somewhere this week. I may actually convince myself to go heavier on this tomorrow morning but for now we'll keep this at 2 units.
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -263 (4 units)
Prop: UNDER 18.5 Total Kills @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: UNDER 37:00 @ -130 (1 unit)
G2 are one of the two truly elite teams in Europe and they've been absolutely bonkers in the first half of games if you look at both the games themselves and the differential metrics. Splyce have one speed and that's slow. They play to scale even when the meta doesn't favor it. I'm going heavy on G2 for a handful of reasons.
- G2: 1914 GPM, 2159 DPM, +1141 GD @ 15 minutes and all of this is with only a 50% first blood rate meaning they're organically outfarming by substantial amounts.
- Splyce: 1760 GPM, 1725 DPM, -959 GD @ 15 minutes and they have a 58% first blood rate meaning they're actually getting crushed really bad in the games they lose or not actually assembling any value from the first blood gold/tempo.
- A lot of the metrics will tell you that this Splyce team has been extremely lucky and are due for some regression.
- Weirdly, Splyce were a team I liked going into the season so I definitely think they could just improve a lot as we approach playoffs but they've just shown little to no adaptation to the meta game to me until last week meaning that it's still fresh for them. G2 have been rolling everyone regardless of the metagame.
- G2 have the best top laner in the league and it's not particularly close (Ruin has been excellent but he pales in comparison. Wunder has quietly been having an MVP caliber season. An 8.6 KDA for a top laner is bananas, he has +11.8 CSD@15 and all of this with only 22% of his teams gold (a low number) and he's done all of this with the least jungle help of any top laner in the league at 3.3% jungle proximity.
- G2 have the best mid laner and likely the best player in Europe in Perkz.
- G2 have side selection.
Stylistically this matchup is just a nightmare for Splyce and while there's a chance G2 do some "experimenting" in weeks 7-9 I really doubt we'll see as much of that in a region that's so close top to bottom. G2 should roll this with surgical precision especially with side choice for a counter.
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Moneyline: Fnatic -175 (3 units)
Prop: UNDER 36:00 @ -111 (1 unit)
I think people will look at Misfits absolute demolition of Team Vitality and think "oh man they just crushed the 3rd place team!" but the reality of the situation is that Vitality have been an absolute dumpster fire recently. Misfits are a good team, as a matter of fact I think I'd say at this moment in time they're probably the third best because I think they're a cut better than the rest of the pack but they're also not quite as good as G2 and Fnatic. I'm going moderately heavy on Fnatic here for the following reasons:
- Fnatic: 1905 GPM, 1943 DPM, +696 GD @ 15 minutes, 67% first blood
- Misfits: 1851 GPM, 1903 DPM, +317 GD @ 15 minutes, 75% first blood
- Fnatic get side choice which matters slightly but in this matchup could matter a lot more. With a very volatile 8.4 patch with new priority picks and pace to the game, side selection could be key. Misfits are also 1-4 on red side this season.
- Misfits get first blood slightly more often than Fnatic but are able to accomplish less with it than Fnatic are.
- Caps is substantially better than Sencux who has been among the worst mid laners in the league statistically. Caps has dealt 704 damage per minute with only 313.8 EGPM for an otherworldly 2.24 damage per gold per minute. This is an elite number similar to what world class, superstars like Faker, Rookie, and BDD put up. Sencux has the lowest DPM amongst all EU mids, 243 less per minute than Caps. He has a respectable 1.77 damage per gold per minute but he has arguably been the worst mid laner that is still starting in the EU LCS this split. Now I do think he's a better player than that but Caps is going to roll this matchup.
- The last match between these two was a 64 minute slugfest that Fnatic lost in heartbreaking fashion to Gangplank + Kogmaw + Zoe late game. They had control of the game and just couldn't close but that was at a time when Gangplank wasn't permabanned and the game itself was significantly slower (first week of patch 8.2 full stopwatch meta). Fnatic aren't going to let that happen again and will most certainly have some extra motivation to take this game in their fight to maintain their one game lead on first place.
I'm anticipating Patch 8.4 to unlock a lot of new mid and jungle picks that are much more geared toward early game and snowballing. Some of these picks have already popped up such as Syndra, Ekko, and Twisted Fate while others such as Leblanc (she's seen a 8 games in the top 5 leagues), Ahri, Talon, and Xerath are due for appearances. I think this helps teams with superior mid lane talent and with how Caps has been playing and side selection I feel Fnatic can set up an advantageous situation and close the game out.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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