- 57-58 on all non-live bets
- 39-32 in prop bets (first blood, over/unders)
- 10-17 in straight moneyline bets
- 8-9 in handcapped bets
- 13-17 in EU + NA
- 44-41 everywhere else
I want to dive in a bit more than usual to see where this went wrong and whether or not it was bad luck/variance or something I can learn from. Just for clarity, I've been intentionally overexposing mostly to get a feel for things and I was willing to take some losses as a cost to do that. That's my reason for the significantly higher quantity of picks. So let's dive in.
Big/Smart Winners:
Moneyline: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +165 over BBQ
Wager: 2 units
Payout: 5.3 unitsCorrect identification of BBQ as a bad team and ROX as a rising good team capable of taking care of business against weaker teams. This is the kind of scenario where we should bet heavy. Don't shy away from the odds here this one was a money maker. You had no reason other than BBQ's random "show up" games to think this wouldn't be a 2-0. This is a surgical strike type of bet we need to get back to those.
Moneyline: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -109 over J Team
Wager: 2
Payout: 5.84 units
Similar to above, the good odds for a likely scenario should have been a slam dunk scenario. Identify these situations and don't be afraid to lay big money. Currently you'll end up -eV just sticking to favorites like this, you need to be willing to go out on a limb for these handicap wagers.
Losers:
Moneyline: KSV eSports -111 to def Afreeca
Wager: 5
Payout: LOSS
I told myself I wasn't going to mess with this KSV team and didn't listen. Nothing more to say.
Moneyline: Jin Air to def BBQ, handicap, and all props
Wager: 9.5 units
Payout: LOSS
This game seemed like actual variance. Jin Air just didn't show up to play. This game impacted a lot of how I bet the rest of the weekend which is bad. I shyed away from good value because I got burned trying to hammer it here when in reality this was the outlier and I should have kept at it. BBQ suck and Jin Air are at least competitive with some of the top teams but it was perhaps a bit wrong to rely on a middle of the table team to spank a bad team.
Moneyline: G2 to def Splyce
Wager: 4
Payout: LOSS
I just shouldn't be wagering 4 units on a new patch in best of ones on a heavy favorite just to try to collect some "free money." This is exactly the kind of situation that you're better off abstaining on or doing a light wager on the underdog over a heavy wager on the favorite.
I just shouldn't be wagering 4 units on a new patch in best of ones on a heavy favorite just to try to collect some "free money." This is exactly the kind of situation that you're better off abstaining on or doing a light wager on the underdog over a heavy wager on the favorite.
Moneyline: Team WE -1.5 maps to def TSG
Wager: 3
Payout: LOSS
I think this bet was fine but the amount was a bit too high. For a middle of the table WE team you shouldn't be wagering 3 units on a sweep of a team that's been playing their best in the past few weeks. WE "should" be better but they aren't yet. Don't bet on the should be.
I think this bet was fine but the amount was a bit too high. For a middle of the table WE team you shouldn't be wagering 3 units on a sweep of a team that's been playing their best in the past few weeks. WE "should" be better but they aren't yet. Don't bet on the should be.
Moneyline: Fnatic -175 to def Misfits
Wager: 3 (+1 for the under)
Payout: LOSS
This one I can chalk up to variance a bit. Good line value for a stronger Fnatic team was being attacked here which is good. Misfits just pulled this one out. Perhaps stay away from patches that are drastically different.
This one I can chalk up to variance a bit. Good line value for a stronger Fnatic team was being attacked here which is good. Misfits just pulled this one out. Perhaps stay away from patches that are drastically different.
Lesson Learned:
1) Stop getting juiced away
In other words I've been sticking too heavily to favorites and over a long time you're not going to end up profitable doing that because of the juice and upsets. You need to be sure of your favorites and make sure they have good odds or it's simply not worth it. If you aren't taking advantage of good odds then you'll never end up profitable.
In other words I've been sticking too heavily to favorites and over a long time you're not going to end up profitable doing that because of the juice and upsets. You need to be sure of your favorites and make sure they have good odds or it's simply not worth it. If you aren't taking advantage of good odds then you'll never end up profitable.
2) (similar to point 1) Don't go heavy on favorites, go heavy on value.
Your two best bets this week were good examples of this. Your money is made when the lines are close like these and provide good return. Hammer bets with good ROI potential and stop hammering heavy favorites.
3) Film Review for EU and NA to set up your LPL/LCK Patch 8.4 scenarios. Was it variance? The Patch? Certain teams doing well? Or was it all just really random?
Part of my struggles this week was severely disrespecting Patch 8.4 despite discussing it a lot. I intentionally lightened up on Saturday and Sunday after a 0-5 EU on Friday which was correct, however, review these games and see whether or not it was the patch or the teams playing that affected the outcome. This will be crucial heading into LCK and LPL this week to know whether or not upsets will be more or less prevalent.
Your two best bets this week were good examples of this. Your money is made when the lines are close like these and provide good return. Hammer bets with good ROI potential and stop hammering heavy favorites.
3) Film Review for EU and NA to set up your LPL/LCK Patch 8.4 scenarios. Was it variance? The Patch? Certain teams doing well? Or was it all just really random?
Part of my struggles this week was severely disrespecting Patch 8.4 despite discussing it a lot. I intentionally lightened up on Saturday and Sunday after a 0-5 EU on Friday which was correct, however, review these games and see whether or not it was the patch or the teams playing that affected the outcome. This will be crucial heading into LCK and LPL this week to know whether or not upsets will be more or less prevalent.
Week Six Roundup:
NA LCS: -5.486 units
EU LCS: -10.35 units
LCK: -11.695 units
LPL: -11.255 units
LMS: +3.615 units
TCL: +4.79 units
LCL: (no bets)
LMS: +3.615 units
TCL: +4.79 units
LCL: (no bets)
Parlays/Combos: (no bets)
TOTAL FOR THE WEEK: -30.381 units
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