For clarification purposes this is a TIER LIST not a necessarily a prediction of placement like my Preseason list was specifically targeting. I'm going to put the teams in order from weakest to strongest by seasons end I'm not going to go through to guess every single matchup and predict wins and losses for all 30 remaining games because things change but I will give my rough estimatates for win and loss totals for each squad. Once again this is NOT necessarily how I believe the standings will end up although it mostly sticks to that for the most part. Think of it more as who I believe has the best chance to win the split outright combined with who I believe has the most potential.
Preseason Predictions:
C Tier Teams:
10) H2k
9) Unicorns of Love
8) Team Vitality
7) Giants Gaming
8) Team Vitality
7) Giants Gaming
B Tier Teams:
6) ROCCAT Gaming
A Tier Teams:
5) Splyce Gaming
4) Misfits Gaming
3) FC Schalke 04
2) G2 eSports
3) FC Schalke 04
2) G2 eSports
S Tier Teams:
1) Fnatic
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Mid-Season Rest of Way Tier List:
C Tier Teams:
H2K
Previous Position: 10th (C Tier)
New Position: 10th (C Tier)
Current Record: 1 win - 7 losses (tied last)
Current Record: 1 win - 7 losses (tied last)
Estimated Record: 3 wins - 15 losses (10th)
This is team is just a nightmare. I'm honestly tempted to make a D-Tier. A mid-season swapping of a rookie to a NEW ROLE, the most complicated position in pro play, combined with overall lack of player quality and the fact that H2K have shown more or less one good game out of the 8 we've seen so far make me think that even with a typical improvement curve this team just doesn't have the firepower to compete at this level.
Unicorns of Love
Previous Position: 9th (C Tier)
New Position: 9th (C Tier)
Current Record: 1 win - 7 losses (tied last)
Current Record: 1 win - 7 losses (tied last)
Estimated Record: 4 wins - 14 losses (9th)
I might be a bit low on the win total but I'm confident that UoL will finish in the bottom two. Exileh has been overperforming and they still can't win games. UoL's only win has been against the dreadful H2K and their games haven't exactly been close. Kold (Trashy) hasn't been himself and I'm not even sure if he as performing at his best if he could carry this team especially if you expect a regression to the norm for Exileh who has, relative to his past, been performing out of his mind.
I might be a bit low on the win total but I'm confident that UoL will finish in the bottom two. Exileh has been overperforming and they still can't win games. UoL's only win has been against the dreadful H2K and their games haven't exactly been close. Kold (Trashy) hasn't been himself and I'm not even sure if he as performing at his best if he could carry this team especially if you expect a regression to the norm for Exileh who has, relative to his past, been performing out of his mind.
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B Tier Teams:
Team ROCCAT
Previous Position: 6th (B Tier)
New Position: 8th (B Tier)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Estimated Record: 7 wins - 11 losses (8th)
This sucks because I like this team a lot and they're a good example of admitting I was perhaps a bit too low on the region as a whole going into the split. It's still not good but it's not as terrible as I thought. ROCCAT are, at the very least, a team that won't roll over and die. They're competitive and have some players capable of taking over games. Norskeren has been promising and he and HeaQ have melded excellently. Profit has had a few good games but has been inconsistent. Just remember that this team has at least one win on the back of some insanely lucky back-to-back baron steals so they're not quite as good as their 4-4 record would suggest.
Splyce:
Previous Position: 5th (A Tier)
New Position: 7th (B Tier)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Estimated Record: 7 wins - 11 losses (7th)
Splyce have been really bizarre. What I thought was good has been bad and what I questioned has been great. KaSing has actually been better than I'd expected and Kobbe has far exceeded my medium to good range of expectations. Odoamne and Xerxe get a lot of respect from pro players but just have not been delivering. It makes me think that this is the team I'm most likely to be incorrect about because a positive regression could be coming here that would suddenly vault this team into the A Tier if Odoamne and Xerxe can start performing. Nisqy could afford to play a little better too. IF all of those happen and the bot lane maintains this level they could be quite good and make playoffs.
Splyce have been really bizarre. What I thought was good has been bad and what I questioned has been great. KaSing has actually been better than I'd expected and Kobbe has far exceeded my medium to good range of expectations. Odoamne and Xerxe get a lot of respect from pro players but just have not been delivering. It makes me think that this is the team I'm most likely to be incorrect about because a positive regression could be coming here that would suddenly vault this team into the A Tier if Odoamne and Xerxe can start performing. Nisqy could afford to play a little better too. IF all of those happen and the bot lane maintains this level they could be quite good and make playoffs.
Giants Gaming
Previous Position: 7th (C Tier)
New Position: 6th (B Tier)
Current Record: 5 wins - 3 losses (tied 2nd)
Current Record: 5 wins - 3 losses (tied 2nd)
Estimated Record: 9 wins - 9 losses (6th)
This team came out the gates firing which was refreshing considering my preseason read on them was that they'd likely struggle to integrate their imports and slowly figure things out. That being said I think that Giants, along with Vitality, have greatly benefited from their correct read on the metagame and they were able to catch a lot of superior teams off guard. Once the league catches up to them they're nothing special. The good thing for Giants is that they have five wins already and Ruin has been an absolute monster in the top lane, perhaps the best in Europe, so they will likely make playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised to see them figured out and player/team quality become the test over knowledge of the metagame which has been their main advantage so far this season.
This team came out the gates firing which was refreshing considering my preseason read on them was that they'd likely struggle to integrate their imports and slowly figure things out. That being said I think that Giants, along with Vitality, have greatly benefited from their correct read on the metagame and they were able to catch a lot of superior teams off guard. Once the league catches up to them they're nothing special. The good thing for Giants is that they have five wins already and Ruin has been an absolute monster in the top lane, perhaps the best in Europe, so they will likely make playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised to see them figured out and player/team quality become the test over knowledge of the metagame which has been their main advantage so far this season.
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A Tier Teams:
Team Vitality
Previous Position: 8th (C Tier)
New Position: 5th (A Tier)
Current Record: 7 wins - 1 loss (1st)
Current Record: 7 wins - 1 loss (1st)
Estimated Record: 11 wins - 7 losses (5th)
There is a really good article over on InvenGlobal by Manuel Martinez breaking down the Team Vitality playstyle, why it has worked, and why he's hesitant to hop aboard the hype train. In it he outlines Vitality's extremely mid-centric playstyle; top lane roams to mid, jungle gank focus on mid, bottom lane combinations draft specifically to wave clear and roam to mid or wave clear and "not lose." Misfits punished them by drafting a Kog'maw lane which more or less called the Vitality bot lane out as incapable of punishing the risky pick and that's exactly what happened in Vitality's only loss. I completely agree with just about every point Manuel makes including the fact that Vitality could make adjustments to be less predictable but my experience in both esports and traditional sports is that teams on top like this rarely change what they're doing, they often have a "don't fix it if is isn't broken" approach unless they're a truly great team and I just don't think Vitality is that. As good as Jiizuke has been his production and overall status have been inflated by a style catered, quite literally, entirely around him. Now I'll give him props for executing when he has to but I also know that this isn't some uncounterable, game-breaking strategy. Team Vitality are going to be figured out and come crashing down hard but I do think they're better than my preseason ranking of 8th for sure. I maybe should have put them in the B Tier because I think this crash is going to come hard and fast but I'll respect what they've done so far. Having an identity is something more teams need but I don't think it's enough especially if it's really predictable unless you have elite players. Being very good at at least one thing is the hallmark of a mid level team which is where they will end up.
There is a really good article over on InvenGlobal by Manuel Martinez breaking down the Team Vitality playstyle, why it has worked, and why he's hesitant to hop aboard the hype train. In it he outlines Vitality's extremely mid-centric playstyle; top lane roams to mid, jungle gank focus on mid, bottom lane combinations draft specifically to wave clear and roam to mid or wave clear and "not lose." Misfits punished them by drafting a Kog'maw lane which more or less called the Vitality bot lane out as incapable of punishing the risky pick and that's exactly what happened in Vitality's only loss. I completely agree with just about every point Manuel makes including the fact that Vitality could make adjustments to be less predictable but my experience in both esports and traditional sports is that teams on top like this rarely change what they're doing, they often have a "don't fix it if is isn't broken" approach unless they're a truly great team and I just don't think Vitality is that. As good as Jiizuke has been his production and overall status have been inflated by a style catered, quite literally, entirely around him. Now I'll give him props for executing when he has to but I also know that this isn't some uncounterable, game-breaking strategy. Team Vitality are going to be figured out and come crashing down hard but I do think they're better than my preseason ranking of 8th for sure. I maybe should have put them in the B Tier because I think this crash is going to come hard and fast but I'll respect what they've done so far. Having an identity is something more teams need but I don't think it's enough especially if it's really predictable unless you have elite players. Being very good at at least one thing is the hallmark of a mid level team which is where they will end up.
Misfits Gaming
Previous Position: 4th (A Tier)
New Position: 4th (A Tier)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Estimated Record: 11 wins - 7 losses (4th)
Misfits have already started to turn it around and have shown that they know how to effectively game plan against any and all opponents. Their weakness is in execution which I believe will improve. Maxlore has been merely good and I expect he'll have a monstrous second half to remind us why he was a game-changer at Worlds this past year. That will more than make up for the overachieving Sencux regressing back to the mean a bit. Hans Sama and Mikyx have been outstanding as well. Wouldn't surprise me to see this team finish higher than this if any of these other top teams falter even a bit. I don't think this Misfits team has as high a ceiling as the other top teams but they're a rock solid, known quantity with at least a little room for growth.
FC Schalke 04
Previous Position: 3rd(A Tier)
New Position: 3rd (A Tier)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Current Record: 4 wins - 4 losses (tied 5th with 4 teams)
Estimated Record: 12 wins - 6 losses (3rd)
After a rough start and a 1-1 record with their weird bot substitution situation Schalke seem to be figuring things out. Pride has been remarkable for a rookie jungler showing wisdom beyond his years at the position, Nukeduck is still in top form as one of the best mid laners in a highly competitive mid lane region, and Vizicsacsi has been better which means he has some room for positive regression but the real gamebreaker here could be Upset. He's made some rookie mistakes but has also showed flashes of the talent everyone was hyping up. I think he'll come into his own as he gets more and more experience and if that happens this team could end up in the S Tier.
After a rough start and a 1-1 record with their weird bot substitution situation Schalke seem to be figuring things out. Pride has been remarkable for a rookie jungler showing wisdom beyond his years at the position, Nukeduck is still in top form as one of the best mid laners in a highly competitive mid lane region, and Vizicsacsi has been better which means he has some room for positive regression but the real gamebreaker here could be Upset. He's made some rookie mistakes but has also showed flashes of the talent everyone was hyping up. I think he'll come into his own as he gets more and more experience and if that happens this team could end up in the S Tier.
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S Tier Teams:
G2 eSports:
Previous Position: 2nd (A Tier)
New Position: 2nd (S Tier)
Current Record: 5 wins - 3 losses (tied 2nd with 3 teams)
Current Record: 5 wins - 3 losses (tied 2nd with 3 teams)
Estimated Record: 13 wins - 5 losses (2nd)
Perkz is unbelievablely good. As a matter of fact he might even be the best Western player right now. Considering that Wunder has struggled and this team is mostly new to each other besides the bot lane and they're still 5-3 should be enough of a signal to most people that they'll be towards the top of the table come seasons end. I actually think G2 might be the best team in Europe but I think Fnatic has ever so slightly more room for growth.
Fnatic
Previous Position:1st (S Tier)
New Position: 1st (S Tier)
Current Record: 5 wins - 3 losses (tied 2nd with 3 teams)
Current Record: 5 wins - 3 losses (tied 2nd with 3 teams)
Estimated Record: 13 wins - 5 losses (1st)
Speaking of Fnatic, after an absolutely brutal start they've turned it on. Rekkles honestly looked like he just decided he wanted to win this weekend and proceeded to stomp all over UoL and Giants. I think the combination of veteran experience, Soaz consistently playing better the longer the season goes over the course of his career, the continued growth of Caps and Broxah, and the likely improvement in chemistry between Rekkles and Hylissang give Fnatic a very high ceiling. Now that they're off the ground I think it will just be up and up and up.
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