Thursday, March 29, 2018

Betting: March 30th (LPL / LMS / EU LCS)

LPL March 30th Schedule:


JD Gaming (-233, -1.5 @ +137, M1 -185, M2 -192, M3 -179)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
LGD Gaming (+176, +1.5 @ -179, M1 +141, M2 +146, M3 +135)



BiliBili Gaming (-128, -1.5 @ +222, M1 -123, M2 -125, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 23.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+101, +1.5 @ -303, M1 -104, M2 -104, M3 -104)


Moneyline: JD Gaming -233 (2 units)

Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 @ +137 (1 unit)


This is mostly a line value bet. I think JD have shown enough good games to me against good teams despite their predictable style to make me think they're good enough to sweep this. Both of these teams play a similar style but JD just do it better. I'm not super confident but I like JD for a unit to sweep.

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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -128  (4 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 maps @ +222 (1 unit)

I simply don't understand why people love this FunPlus team so much and why they're so down on BBG. With a sub mid laner and jungler BiliBili were able to take down Snake. Meanwhile FunPlus are doing their best BBQ Olivers impression. They're remarkably inconsistent. BiliBili won the first meeting between these two teams 2-0 and while the "vengeance" factor might kick in I think the same result happens. I'd like BBG to win this whether they used Mole and Chieftan or Sks and Athena in whichever iteration they choose. BBG are a good team with some excellent players and the only thing you can hold against them is that they aren't quite an elite level. FunPlus on the other hand are what I'd consider a "best of the rest" type. I love BiliBili here. A win would put them two games ahead with the tiebreaker and would more or less lock their playoff spot up against a Snake team that suddenly looks a lot less daunting. This is a case of a bad team with a better record than they are and a good team with a slightly worse record which makes them look close to the naked eye. 

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LMS (Taiwan) March 30th Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-714, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -417, M2 -400, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
AHQ eSports (+416, +1.5 @ +117, M1 +270, M2 +274, M3 +243)


G-Rex (-294, -1.5 @ +121, M1 -213, M2 -208, M3 -204)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Machi eSports (+189, +1.5 @ -175, M1 +151, M2 +153, M3 +143)


Handicapped: G-Rex -1.5 maps @ +121  (2 units)
This is a bit of a weird spot because both teams are coming in on winning streaks but their most recent matches have been against the bottom of the table. The LMS is extremely top heavy with the Flash Wolves in their own tier above everyone else but G-Rex are pretty clearly the second best team and I think are a tier better than the next best squads like Machi and J Team. For this reason I like the value of the handicap we're getting here at +121. G-Rex absolutely crushed this matchup 2-0 earlier in the season and I think they're a better team than they were then. As a bonus they've been very consistent in not surrendering many games to teams that aren't the Flash Wolves and were also the ONLY TEAM to beat Flash Wolves. If there is a second international quality team in the LMS it's G-Rex and even if I don't quite think they're on that level they're certainly better than the rest of their competition.
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EU LCS Playoffs March 30th Schedule:


G2 eSports (-179, -1.5 @ +118, -2.5 @ +314)
@ (Over/Under   36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Splyce  (+138, +1.5 @ -154, +2.5 @ ???)


Moneyline: G2 eSports -179  (4 units)

Handicapped: G2 eSports -1.5 maps @ +118  (1 unit)

Handicapped: G2 eSports -2.5 maps @ +314  (0.5 unit)


Splyce looked great against ROCCAT but I need you to read that sentence back a few times, take a breath, think about it, and then speak again. G2 and Fnatic are, to me at least, MILES AHEAD of the rest of Europe despite the super weird fiasco that was Europe this season that left records quite close. I actually feel fairly confident this will be a 3-1 with Splyce taking a game only to side selection. I think the second most likely outcome here is a G2 3-0. G2 simply outclass Splyce in every position including Splyce's strongest point recently, Odoamne. With a best of five to perhaps wade through some weird support picks from Kasing I just can't see G2 losing this. I might actually up this in the morning so stay tuned. Don't overthink this people. G2 are only going to get better and with time to prep and less "randomness" from the best of one format they'll show the world why they're the only team that can hold a flame to Fnatic in Europe.

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