Monday, May 6, 2019

Betting: May 7th (MSI Play-In Day 5 - Knockout Stage)

MSI - Play-In Stage - Day 5 - Knockout Stage

I've got to be honest here. So far I think Vega have been the best IWC team. Not by a huge margain but by enough. They're versatile, creative, patient, able to play proactively, and have an super strong presence in the top lane in Boss that warps games around him. They also have creative drafts and a variety of strategies. Now that I've given my measured response....


Sure I'll hear an argument that Phong Vu are better because they showed respectably for like half a game against Team Liquid and were the big favorites coming into this tournament. Fine that's an opinion I could understand. Even the most optimistic of Phong Vu fans aren't going to tell you they have a 75+% chance of winning this series. There's absolutely no way. 

I do feel the need to be clear about what we're signing up for here this is two wildcard teams and honestly anything could happen. It's part of why I abstained in groups so much along with best of one and unknowns for a lot of these teams. This is EXTREMELY RISKY! To me Vega Squadron just lost pretty badly to Flash Wolves a team that I consider a fair amount worse than Team Liquid but Phong Vu got 3-0'd by team Liquid and honestly TL didn't even play well but all comparisons aside this is much simpler for me. Vega Squadron just look better. In fact I'd have them as slight favorites to win this series even though I think Flash Wolves were a weaker opponent. And yet they're being rated at 25% to win this match? If this wasn't wildcard teams I'd say this is the most ridciulous value we've seen this season but they add a bit of a ... wildcard to things.

I know I look like a madman for firing so heavily on a battle between two IWC teams after abstaining all tournament because of their unpredictability but this line is just so absurdly out of whack I have to aggressively attack it. This is obscene. These two teams should be 50/50 or damn close to it. 

I'm going to avoid over/unders for now but I'm tempted to take the under kills AND time in at least maps one and two especially since I'm confident Vega can win this. 

"Gut": Vega ML (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 4 / 5 (ML)

Value: 2.0 /1.5 (handicap), 2.0 /1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Vega Squadron +215 (~5.2 units, BOOK MAX)

Handicapped: Vega +1.5 maps @ +118 (~9.5 units, BOOK MAX)
Prop: Exact Vega 3-0 @ +801 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact Vega 3-1 @ +584 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact Vega 3-2 @ +586 (0.5 units)


Parlay (2): Vega ML + G2 ML +173 (vs SKT) @ +757 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): Vega ML + G2 ML +173 (vs IG) @ +757 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): Vega +1.5 + G2 ML +173 (vs SKT) @ +443 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): Vega +1.5 + G2 ML +173 (vs IG) @ +443 (0.5 units)

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