Thursday, May 9, 2019

Betting: May 10th (MSI Main Event Group Stage Day 1)

I'm more excited for this MSI than any I can remember. There are legitimately three teams that could take this thing down and appear to be bonafied world class teams in SKT, IG, and G2. We discussed granularity on the podcast a lot last night and I want to provide you all with my tier list for this event so that you understand where I'm coming from and have some context for my bets.

S Tier: SK Telecom, Invictus, G2 eSports

A+ Tier: Team Liquid

B Tier: Flash Wolves 

D Tier: Phong Vu Buffalo

I like SK Telecom to win this tournament but the truth is I think SKT, Invictus, and G2 all have about an equal opportunity to take this and that's something I never thought I'd say. A pre-tournament prediction that a Western team is on the same level as the top teams? I've never done that. This G2 team is the real deal and if you're into futures I like taking them at 8/1 to win the tournament. If I think all three of these teams have a similar chance to win then 8/1 is ridiculously good odds while IG and SKT are 6/5. You can also take your pick of SKT or IG at 6/5 and G2 at 8/1 and profit no matter what if you split it right. I give SKT the tiebreaker because I think they just have the best players overall which I think matters the most in the current metagame but to be clear I think it's very close and you could justify any of these three. Team Liquid I think is being underrated by people and I say that even with how poorly they looked against Phong Vu at times. I think they're clearly better than Flash Wolves and Phong Vu. If they looked bad and still stomped Phong Vu... yea. Unfortunately for TL the top three teams are ridiculously good and I don't think they have much of a chance to win this tournament but I think a 5-5 performance would be respectable in the group stage and not a disappointment like I'm sure reddit and twitter will inevitably tell you.

Now onto the matches.....

MSI Main Event - Group Stage - Day 1


SK Telecom vs G2

I think SK Telecom probably win this game maybe 55% of the time but again if I'm considering these two teams to be close to 50/50 and we're staring down pair of lines like this you simply have to take the underdog. These lines opened at G2 +173 and have slowly crept up. I don't know who is betting so heavily on these -250 or -300 lines like this to keep pushing them up but it's moving the lines. We also got an update this morning that MikyX has been getting the scrim reps and plans to play the entire tournament as long as he's able so the whole "uncertainty" over whether PromisQ will play were put a little to rest.

I put a bet in at +173 last week when these lines opened up and I've been slowly adding a little to these numbers as they climb out of G2's favor. I think this should probably be something like SKT -130 ... not -333. We're going to bet the value here ESPECIALLY in a best of one format I love doing this.

Moneyline: G2 +173 (1 unit) (original bet)

Moneyline: G2 +215 (0.5 units) (first add on)

Moneyline: G2 +243 (1 unit) (second add on)


Flash Wolves vs Team Liquid

I think Team Liquid are a tier and a half better than Flash Wolves and while they looked relatively poor at times against Phong Vu I think a decent amount of it was due to disrespect and that they had very fixable problems. I expect Liquid to go 4-0 against Flash Wolves and Phong Vu and I'm going to bet accordingly. I do think Flash Wolves have a decent chance at splitting their series against Team Liquid especially if they continue to improve like they have all calendar year but this is simply a completely different level of competition than they are used to and I expect them to struggle with it. I also think Flash Wolves strengths line up poorly with Liquid who I think have the strongest bottom lane besides Teddy/Mata in this tournament and a top half with a lot of international experience to limit the effectiveness of Rather, Bugi, and Hanabi. 

Moneyline: Team Liquid -200 (5 units)


Phong Vu Buffalo vs Invictus Gaming

Not too much to say here in terms of the side but I'll mention that IF you like betting super underdogs this is probably the best spot to do it. First game for both these squads and Invictus have a tendency to play into their opponents a little bit and get sloppy so +650 is a nice payoff if you believe. I'll be abstaining from the side BUT I absolutely LOVE the over/unders here. Phong Vu play high kill games but only when they're ahead and I don't expect that to be the case here. Invictus sometimes show a tendency to play with their food a little and give up high kill games as well but the 30.5 kill total is the highest in this day one and I love the under. I don't expect IG to clown around in a best of one and expect them to quickly demolish Phong Vu who I think we saw from play-in's and their struggles against even Team Liquid are simply not cut out for international play. 

Over/Under: PVB/IG UNDER 30.5 @ -116 (5 units)

Over/Under PVB/IG UNDER 29:00 @ -116 (5 units)


SK Telecom vs Flash Wolves

We talked a lot on the podcast last night about the BS narrative that Flash Wolves are the "Korea slayers." First of all that was a completely different lineup. Second of all the level in the LMS has been down and while it might slowly be turning around currently I don't think it's ready for this monster of an SKT team. This should be an absolute route for SKT and unfortunately the kill and game time totals are just about where I'd have them so this is a no bet from me outside of including it in a few parlays.

No wager


Invictus vs G2 eSports

For similar reasons to G2 vs SKT I'll be taking G2 here for as a value underdog. Basically the same exact reasoning. 

Moneyline: G2 +173 (1 unit) (original bet)

Moneyline: G2 +210 (0.5 units) (first add on)

Moneyline: G2 +243 (1 unit) (second add on)


Team Liquid vs Phong Vu Buffalo

I could understand the rematch narrative in favor of Phong Vu but I think Team Liquid actually played relatively poorly against PVB in that series and still rolled them. Team Liquid tend to play a little slower so I don't like the game time total but I do like the under 28.5 kills as they should be disciplined enough especially after having already played Phong Vu to avoid scrapping with them and getting sloppy.

Over/Under: TL/PVB UNDER 28.5 total kills @ -116 (1 unit)



My book has limited parlays for this tournament so these look kind of funky but it's because I wasn't able to make all the selections I wanted to. I also had a few pending from play-in stage. If your book allows you to parlay G2 both times on day one here I'd highly recommend putting a small wager on that because it wouldn't surprise me at all and a double +243 underdog that payout would be NICE!

Parlay (2):Vega +1.5 + G2 +173 vs SKT @ total +443 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): Vega +1.5 + G2 +173 vs IG @ total 443 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): SKT -115 vs IG + G2 -182 vs TL @ total +190 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): G2 -182 vs TL + FW -238 vs PVB @ total +120 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): TL/PVB UNDER 28.5 + PVB/IG UNDER 30.5 @ total +246 (0.5 units)

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