Saturday, May 4, 2019

Betting: May 5th (MSI Play-In Day 3)

Mid Season Invitational - Play-In Stage Day 3:


It's kinda weird after seeing Group A but I'm going to be taking the under kill total in six of the eight games on this slate and no-betting the first game DFM vs INTZ (because book isn't offering the kill total on that yet. I'm also taking the over in the last Mega vs Vega game because I think both teams will be locked in position by the time that game happens and it has the chance to turn into a total clown fiesta. 

Group B has been much more tame than Group A was but that's not to say that it hasn't been interesting or contained some interesting choices. Heimerdinger, Lane Karthus, etc. Group B teams have all shown that they want to scale or spike mid game which is typically going to lead to slower, less bloody games. I know these numbers are pretty low at 23.5 but I think with an average kill per game in what we've seen so far of 21 I like this as both a metric play and a stylistic play. My only reservation is that these teams zig while everyone is zagging. What I mean by that is maybe they up the aggression level knowing everyone is playing slower. I'm willing to bet against that. Most of these teams don't have the versatility to stray from their original game plan.

DFM vs Mega UNDER 23.5 kills @ -116 (1 unit)

INTZ vs Vega UNDER 23.5 kills @ -116 (1 unit)

INTZ vs Mega UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1 unit)

DFM vs Vega UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1 unit)

INTZ vs DFM UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1 unit)

Vega vs Mega UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1.5 units)

Mega vs Vega (last game) OVER 23.5 @ -116 (1 unit)


In terms of actual bets, we're not getting a ton of value on any of the underdogs like we did in Group A because of the mix of wins in the group. I'm not going to bet any sides tomorrow for similar reasons to why I abstained after Day One which is just that these teams are all fairly weak and anything can happen. I do have a fairly strong feeling that INTZ will be better than they showed so I'll have a strong lean toward INTZ in all of their games but as of right now I don't think I'll fire unless we get some more line value out of it. Strong leans to INTZ.

1 comment:

  1. Great Article!
    I love the MSI GL63 9RDS.
    When we think of MSI, we mostly imagine it has high-end specifications and most powerful gaming laptops.
    but MSI also manufactures gaming laptops with limited specifications according to the budgets of the buyers.
    The latest addition of GL- series is MSI GL63 9RDS.
    It is limited to some regions and not widely available.

    ReplyDelete