Before diving into day two I just want to remind everyone that while it's important to take what you can from day one just remember not to overreact to a couple best of ones. Stick to your pre-tournament read and look for things that make you change your mind on that or stay the course. Don't be results oriented in your approach or you'll get roasted.
Day 1 Results (excluding parlays since we have a few pending):
Record: 6 - 6
Net: -5.045 units
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MSI Main Event - Group Stage - Day 2
If it weren't for the Invictus/PVB clown fiesta we would have absolutely crushed it yesterday but instead ended up down a little over 5 units because of Invictus' arrogance. I shouldn't be surprised and perhaps it's my fault for assuming Invictus would take PVB seriously but it still stings. Honestly at that point I was half hoping Invictus would lose so that we'd get some sweet line values but alas we get double screwed.
The lines become even more polarized from when they opened. I was expecting to maybe eke out some small edges off of people overreacting but it appears people have gone the other way. Most of my wagers on day two are going to be over/unders because the sides are fairly close to unbettable in a lot of situations. Parlay if you see fit but I think tomorrow is mostly chalk besides SKT/IG.
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G2 eSports vs Team Liquid
I bet G2 heavily earlier in the week at -182 and this line has since moved all the way up to -238. G2 should win this game but I have to admit I'm not quite as confident as I initially was. I'm not scared enough to hedge but Team Liquid did look improved over their play-in series performance. They're confident, their individual players don't appear outclassed, and they're executing on a style that works for them. I think if TL can somehow bait G2 into a gentlemans agreement, scale to late game sort of draft then I could see them winning this but I don't think it's likely.
At this point the "smart" money is on Team Liquid because I think there is value there at +180. They have a better chance to win than that but I don't think by much. I took G2 at -182 because I felt the line should be closer to about -200 but with TL looking good I could see the argument for taking the dogs here. I'm sticking to my main bet and adding a few more. Call it a hunch but I have a feeling with two teams that are either going to attempt to split push each other out or try to scale I think we'll see a longer game than 32 minutes. Yesterday we saw really high kill total numbers and while one of the games delivered on it (grumble....) the others did not and we've seen perhaps an overadjustment by the books here. Most of the games had extremely low kill totals and I don't expect that to stay the case especially with some of tomorrows matchups. I'm taking the over 23.5 here.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -182 (5 units) (original bet)
Over/Under: G2/TL OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
Over/Under: G2/TL OVER 23.5 kills @ -125 (1 unit)
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Phong Vu Buffalo vs Flash Wolves
I have to show a certain amount of respect to PVB for taking it to Invictus but honestly if you can't win that game I don't know what games you're going to win in this tournament. They were scoring kills all over the place and just doing absolutely nothing with it a lot of the time. I don't think Flash Wolves are that good either but I do think they're better than PVB and that people are going to overreact to their performance against Invictus. You could look at it as a sign or that it was an admirable effort but to me that was their Super Bowl. With the crowd that hyped and that kind of lead and they still couldn't close that game out? I'm not sure I can trust this team with anything.
Predictably, a lot of money has come in on Phong Vu since this line opened at -238 and is now down to -167. I didn't have any money on this match but I'm going to fire on Flash Wolves for two units. This is a little outside the box thinking but it feels too easy to look at Flash Wolves three total kills over two games and Phong Vu's "respectable" (if you want to call it that) performance against IG and be like "WTF MATE?!" Flash Wolves looked significantly better to me in the play-in best of fives and while they had the easier opponent they still showed better to me independent of that factor. There's also the perception of two bad games vs one wild game. If you've seen two bad games it's really easy to leap to conclusions like "ok they're not good this tournament" while one game is still potential fluke/bad game status when the reality is they aren't any different. People tend to forget their pre-tournament read and just drop it. I'm not and along with the value we're collecting here I'm going to fire on Flash Wolves. I'm also going to take the under 28.5 since I feel that's a high number especially if I expect Flash Wolves to win.
Moneyline: Flash Wolves -167 (2 units)
Over/Under: PVB/FW UNDER 28.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
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Team Liquid vs Invictus Gaming
Not much to say here on the side but I do like the under 28.5 kills. Invictus don't play down to their opponents level as much as they play to their opponents strengths, at least most of the time. TL have shown the ability to play a cool, controlled style but haven't shyed away from early aggression either. To me this is going to be lopsided one way or the other. If IG try to play the split push game it'll be a low kill game. If TL play the split push and manage to pull it off, it'll be a low kill game. Unless this just becomes an outright clown fiesta I LOVE the under 28.5. I'm going to put a half unit on the under 31:00 as well since I do feel like this will most likely be an Invictus thrashing. Impact has been excellent this year but TheShy is playing on an intergalactic level right now and he hasn't had to face that level of player yet this year. With so much of the pressure on him and the limited effect on the game bot lane can have I think the mismatch of the bot lanes (in TL's favor) will be nullified by Rookie and TheShy just trouncing the solo lanes.
Over/Under: UNDER 28.5 kills @ -114 (3 units)
Over/Under: UNDER 31:00 @ -114 (0.5 units)
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SK Telecom vs Phong Vu Buffalo
As I mentioned earlier I think we saw Phong Vu's best performance of the tournament against IG and they still couldn't get a win. Look, PVB are going to try their best to get SKT off their game. Maybe it'll be a weird draft, a level one cheese, just taking every all in, etc but SKT know what's coming and unlike in previous years they have the tools to dispatch a team approaching the game that way. SKT are going to choke Phong Vu out of this game and unlike Invictus they aren't going to jump into the mud and tustle with them. It looks absolutely nuts in a PVB game but I'm taking the under kill total AND the under 29 minutes. Call it zigging when everyone is zagging or whatever but I think PVB are awful and I'm not going to let one clown fiesta game change my opinion on that. Even if you do think PVB have a good shot at an upset here the under is the line to take. IF they were to win this they'd do it fast like G2 did. I just think PVB simply don't have the players or team quality that SKT does and aren't even in the same universe. SKT are enough better that even given the stylistic differences I expect them to completely smash Phong Vu in a statement game.
Over/Under: UNDER 22.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
Over/Under: UNDER 29:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
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Flash Wolves vs G2 eSports
It's been awhile since I've put in so heavy on a -263 sized favorite but I did that earlier this week. I'm that confident in G2 even in a best of one. Flash Wolves aren't a bad team but they're not on the same level as the major region teams at this tournament and especially not SKT, IG, and G2. The good news for Flash Wolves is that if they progress like they have this season then maybe they'll be ready to compete at worlds this year but right now they're not ready. I know they're best of ones and we don't like drawing conclusions from small sample sizes but just the eye test does wonders here. G2 smashed SKT this morning in just under 27 minutes... SKT and Flash Wolves aren't even in the same league, hell I'd say they aren't even on the same continent (not literally but figuratively). I don't think Flash Wolves are as bad as they showed yesterday but FW and PVB aren't even remotely close to the level of the rest of the teams in this tournament and we'll see that again here.
Moneyline: G2 -263 (5 units) (original bet)
Over/Under: UNDER 30:00 @ -114 (2 units)
Over/Under: UNDER 23.5 kills @ -114 (1.5 units)
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SK Telecom vs Invictus Gaming
Again sticking to our pre-tournament ratings is something I tend to do especially in shorter tournaments and especially within the first few matches of a tournament where you don't get a large sample size. I had SKT, Invictus, and G2 more or less equal going into this tournament and I still think that's the case. I also had SKT winning the whole thing citing overall strength of individual players as the tiebreaker in my prediction. This line was -120/-120 and then -115/-115 now it's +119/-152 because SKT lost to G2. As I cautioned at the beginning of this post I tend to stick to my pre-tournament reads especially in volatile best of one type situations. If I have these two teams rated equally I'm going to take the dog if it presents like it does here. I already had a unit on SKT at -115 mostly as my choice in a pick 'em situation but with the value trending in our direction I'm willing to fire an additional unit on SKT. Invictus actually have a worthy adversary for their solo laners in this matchup provided Khan can elevate a little.
All this said, I'd just like to mention that we should honestly cherish every opportunity we get to see Faker and Rookie duke it out. In my opinion, as a mid laner myself, and a long time follower of the competitive scene, we're watching the two best players to ever play the position go at it in this matchup. They've met before and it's been a clash of the titans but it's been awhile and we get to see it here again. Celebrate these moments regardless of the result.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -115 (1 unit) (original bet)
Moneyline: SK Telecom +119 (1 unit) (add on bet)
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Parlays:
We have a few pending from yesterday but I'm adding a these.
Parlay (2): SKT +119 vs IG + FW -167 vs PVB @ total +250 (2 units)
Parlay (2): G2 -238 + IG -417 @ total -132 (4 units)
Parlay (3): G2 -238 + FW -167 + IG -417 @ total +182 (1.5 units)
Parlay (4): SKT +119 + FW -167 + G2 -238 + IG -417 @ total +517 (1 unit)
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