Jin Air (+324, +1.5 @ +189, M1 +240, M2 +194, M3 +194
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kingzone DragonX (-500, -1.5 @ -256, M1 -357, M2 -278, M3 -278)
BBQ Olivers (-263, -1.5 @ +146, M1 -175, M2 -175, M3 -175)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+196, +1.5 @ -200, M1 +127, M2 +153, M3 +153)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -500 (5 units)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -256 (3 units)
Moneyline: Map 1 and Map 2 UNDER 37:00 (total of 1 unit)
Kingzone are the best team in the world and it's not remotely close. I think they're at least two tiers better than Jin Air and are a horrific stylistic matchup for Jin Air who lack the required player talent or speed to keep up with this team.
Result: WIN (+6 units)
Result: WIN (+4.17 units)
Moneyline: BBQ Olivers -263 (3 units)
Moneyline: BBQ Olivers -1.5 @ +146 (1 unit)
This could be one of those series MVP takes a game in but I just think they're a cut below even Kongdoo to be pretty clearly the worst team in LCK despite their win over SKT last week. BBQ isn't that great but one thing they do well is punish mistakes and MVP are full of them.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
EU LCS February 10th Schedule (Week 4 Day 2):
Team Vitality -200 @ Splyce +148
H2k +194 @ Schalke 04 -278
ROCCAT +159 @ Misfits -222
Fnatic -154 @ Giants +116
G2 eSports -333 @ Unicorns of Love +234
Moneyline: Splyce +148 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: This line has moved from -200 vs +148 to -147 vs +114, If you like Vitality in this situation this is good line value and I'd up the bet. I'm still sticking with my one unit on Splyce wager even though this is sorta fishy.)
It's kinda weird to me that Vitality have played red side every single game. I think someone is eventually going to test that so they don't have counter for solo lanes every game. Their underlying metrics are actually relatively unexciting as well. They are winning off of big plays and I don't think it's sustainable to rely on that every single game. I've adjusted my expectation of this team, they'll make playoffs for sure which is much better than my 8th place prediction, but I also think they're something along the lines of an 11-7 type of team which means they're due for some losses in that situation. I also think they're due for some regressino to the mean based on the metrics and that ROCCAT layed out a good blueprint to beat them and just couldn't execute. I'll take the dogs for a unit here.
Result: LOSS, Jeez Vitality innovating again. They had the uptempo rapid siege with Ziggs going well but botched a Rift Herald activication to slow themselves down or this game likely would've been over in under 30 minutes. Vitality looked great in this game but once again teams keep letting them have red side when YamatoCannon has PUBLICLY SAID he prefers red side.
Moneyline: Schalke 04 -278 (4 units)
Other than actually taking the win, Schalke looked great yesterday against G2 in a match that showcased the skills of both teams. It was one of the better games in Europe this season so far and, to me at least, cemented both teams as top 4 contenders. H2k are just terrible and their lineup shuffle got them absolutely murdered by Splyce yesterday. Schalke are a better team than that so this is a classic heavy favorite bet to me. I'd be surprised if H2k wins more than 3 or 4 games this season.
Result: WIN (+5.44 units)
(UPDATE: Line has moved from +159 vs -222 to +130 vs -167)
Originally I was going to take ROCCAT as one of my line value underdogs but unlike the Splyce situation where I'm anticipating regression on the part of Vitality, I'm actually expecting Misfits to perform slightly better than they have been. However, Misfits have had trouble closing games and ROCCAT have been an excellent and creative macro team capable of stalling games out and running people around the map like we saw yesterday with a huge deficit. The thing to keep in mind though is that yesterdays' game would have ended if Memento did have TWO 50/50 smite steals on baron. That's not a sustainable thing you can rely on. They were going to lose that game despite the impressive macro performance if that didn't happen. I don't like to rely on flukey, big plays like baron steals. Misfits should be able to start closing leads and ending games and if ROCCAT give them that type of lead I expect Misfits to deliver a win.
Result: LOSS, Wow ROCCAT with the perfect game... Maybe I need to give more props to ROCCAT.
Moneyline: Fnatic -154 (4 units)
Fnatic have been playing at a blistering pace the past two weeks which is a hard counter to Giants typical strategy of relying on scaling and Ruin to make stalling outplays in the top lane. SoaZ is also a grisled veteran that's seen every hotshot top laner come through his region and put them all down so I think the Broxah/SoaZ combo can deal with Djoko/Ruin. Other than that, the rest of the map is heavily in Fnatic's favor. Rekkles went berserk yesterday and seemingly decided to win that game on his own. Hylissang and Rekkles look a lot better in lane now that they're getting to know each other and Caps has been a quiet MVP candidate so far. I like Giants as you all know but Fnatic should be able to run them over today now that they've got some momentum and seem to have figured themselves out.
Result: WIN (+6.6 units), Fnatic looked decisively better in this game besides SoaZ greedily keeping ignite over switching to flash in a spellbook Ornn top lane so he fed a few kills.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -333 (5 units)
(UPDATE: Line has moved from -333 vs +234 to -270 vs +203)
Originally a standard 4 unit heavy favorite in a best of one bet but I'm tacking on an additional unit now that this line has moved down. I guess the public really likes the underdogs which makes perfect sense since people LOVE the Unicorns of Love like some sort of weird cult. I don't know what people are looking at. G2 looks like one of the best teams in Europe with even better early game metrics (not necessarily performance) than Fnatic and Fnatic just obliterated this team yesterday. Go home public, you're drunk, I'll take my money now.
Result: WIN (+6.85 units)
NA LCS February 10th Schedule (Week 4 Day 1):
Team Solo Mid -278 @ Clutch Gaming +200
Cloud 9 +110 @ Team Liquid -152
OpTic Gaming +155 @ Counter Logic Gaming -208
100 Thieves -238 @ FlyQuest +173
Echo Fox -556 @ Golden Guardians +350
Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -278 (3 units)
While I like Clutch Gaming despite their 2 - 4 start, I had TSM pinned as the top team in the NA LCS by seasons end and still think there's a good chance they end up there. They appear to have hit their stride and I think this unfortunately a bad spot for Clutch. I'll be almost certainly be taking them tomorrow against OpTic though. I'm not going heavier on this because I do think there's a chance Clutch can win this game because I believe they're a good team.
Result: LOSS, Long slugfest of a game that TSM just could not pull out despite Clutch's lag of engage.
Moneyline: Team Liquid -152 (2.5 units)
This is the match of the week in any region to me. These two teams both look excellent, play uptempo well, and are both hitting the ground running early in the split. I'm going with Liquid here for a number of reasons. While these two teams try to play quickly, Liquid have an average game time of 32:08 vs 40:23 and there aren't really any major long games to warp that number for Cloud 9. If you watch the games for these two teams Liquid have been more or less perfect from ahead. They're one of the best teams on earth from ahead even challenging my world number one squad Kingzone DragonX in game time and closing speed. Cloud 9 have had a few good closes but have struggled here and there. This pick is a combination of Liquid looking slightly cleaner right now and having side selection to put Impact or Pobelter in an advantageous matchup. Counterpick for great tempo teams is extremely difficult to beat. We've seen Team Vitality take advantage of this in EU and I think Liquid are a better team than they are. This isn't disrespecting Cloud 9, as I think they're one of the best teams in NA but this is a rough spot and a rough matchup. I'll talk about it another time but it's interesting to me that Cloud 9, as good as they are, have really poor stylistic matchups against Liquid and Echo Fox, could have an impact on potential playoff seeding. Limiting this wager, at least for now, to 2.5 units because Cloud 9 is a good enough team that I want to respect their capabilities but I do think this is advantage Liquid for the three reasons I discussed.
Result: LOSS, Cloud 9 absolutely stomped this game. I guess Liquid was due for a non-stomp game but I didn't see it coming in this fashion. Hard to tell if this was a one-off or not but I do know that Impact was absolutely devastated by this loss. Licorice owned him. Stick with Liquid and chalk this up to a bad game until they show problems again.
Moneyline: OpTic Gaming +155 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: I put an in-game bet in at 28 minutes right before inhib was taken at Optic -200 for 4 units, as I'm typing this is went to -714)
I don't think OpTic are a good team but I don't think CLG are either despite a surprisingly good performance last week. CLG shouldn't be favored by this much over anybody besides Golden Guardians and maybe FlyQuest. I'd set this line closer to the C9 vs Liquid line of +110 and -152, a reasonable favorite but I had these two teams a tier apart but only a few places in my preseason predictions and OpTic have actually looked slightly better than I anticipated. I'm a tad hesitant on this because CLG have side selection and are willing to play 1-3-1, a strategy that involves solo lane counterpicks but I just don't think they're that much better than these mid to low tier teams. I'll put a unit on the dog for the "upset."
Result: WIN (+2.55 units)
Result: WIN (+6.0 units) <--- this was the in-game bet
CLG are really bad. They devoted so many resources to get Darshan fed on a carry and shut Zig down and even got Huhi's Aurelion Sol and couldn't get anything done. Optic looked similar to 100 Thieves to be honest. Nothing stellar individually but they know how to play disciplined scaling games. They won't beat the great teams but they can beat the bottom teams.
Moneyline: FlyQuest +173 (2 units)
(UPDATE: Really poor decision by Flame to tP into instant death in top lane but FlyQuest strike back with a pair of kills and tower bottom. I tried to get a 1 unit wager in at +313 but I had to get in at +135 about 17:30 game time)
Fly and Anda will be playing today. Fly is a really talented and bizarre player that had shining moments in Korea and I was really excited to introduce him to this mid lane pool. For those that don't know, he's sort of like a better version of Huhi. He's a gifted tempo champion player utilizing picks like Twisted Fate, Aurelion Sol, Taliyah and even some assassins like Leblanc and Talon, all of which are champions that have shown promise in this meta and are slowly creeping in as a counter to the hyper scaling, passive lanes the majority of teams have been selecting. Rookie jungle Anda actually looked quite good early in the split and even earned player of the game honors so his benching was really strange to see last week. Regardless, we get to see him and Fly attempt to impose their will on the map. Now typicaly that up tempo style of play would be excellent against a "stall to win" team like 100 Thieves have been but I'm going to keep this wager light because they have no prior stage experience together as a mid/jungle combo and likely haven't had a lot of time to practice and communicate which is paramount in roaming and uptempo styles. I still like FlyQuest to win this game at this number. Stylistically they're a rough matchup for 100 Thieves and, as you all know, I think this 100 Thieves team is due for a hard crash and are tremendously overrated. The combination of line value, progression vs regression, Fly being an excellent and weird player to play against, and a poor stylistic matchup make me like FlyQuest for a couple units here. I might update this check back later.
Result: WIN (+2.35 units)
Result: WIN (+5.46 units) <--- this was the in-game bet
Moneyline: Echo Fox -556 (5 units)
(UPDATE: I'm putting 1 unit on the UNDER 36:00 for this match. Echo Fox against bottom tier teams have sub 33 minute game times. I expect this to be about as one sided as you could get unless they joke around and style. I might add more to this in a bit let me think on it.)
Is there anything to say here? I wonder if we'll get to see a Riven pick or something spicy from Huni and friends to just hard style on this dumpster fire Golden Guardians team.
Result: WIN (+5.9 units)
Result: WIN (1.53 units) <--- this was the under bet
Combos/Parlays:
Parlay (2): Fnatic -164, G2 -270 (0.5 units) WIN (1.105)
I'm putting in a number of 0.1 unit parlays covering the combinations of 6 and 7 teams where it's assumed FNC, G2, TSM, and FOX win their games and covering the others.
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