Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -106 to defeat 100 Thieves
Wager: 4 units
Payout: 7.76 unitsThis was a combination of trusting my preseason evaluation, that TSM would end up at the top of the league by seasons end and 100 Thieves would be in the bottom half, and identifying a new look or personality in a team that they didn't show before. TSM was playing their slow, death by a thousand cuts, methodical style against both good and bad teams and were letting teams get to late game where it becomes closer to a 50/50 situation instead of pushing their advantages and closing a game out. Saturday against Golden Guardians they absolutely stomped them in quick time and gave up one kill if memory serves correctly. The point being, that TSM are no longer going to let teams scale on them without risk like they were able to do initially. Couple that with a few more weeks together and with the new coaching staff that was brought in during the offseason and I think TSM have found their footing.
Moneyline: Schalke 04 +100 to defeat Giants Gaming
Wager: 4 units
Payout: 8 units
I loved this Giants team but this was good discipline. I know Schalke is the better team despite Giants being red hot right now. Anticipated collapse and a moderately inaccurate line that MOVED prior to game time, because money was coming in on Giants, gave me a ton of value on this 2 to 1 payout.
I loved this Giants team but this was good discipline. I know Schalke is the better team despite Giants being red hot right now. Anticipated collapse and a moderately inaccurate line that MOVED prior to game time, because money was coming in on Giants, gave me a ton of value on this 2 to 1 payout.
Moneyline: Splyce +188 to defeat Misfits
Wager: 1 unit
Payout: 2.88 unit
I don't want to take too many stabs at "line value" bets like this if I can help it but I should be more willing to wager one or two units on close games that could go the underdogs way. In this case I thought this game should be closer to a pick 'em, which is what it opened at (-112 to -112) so I pounced on the value dog.
I don't want to take too many stabs at "line value" bets like this if I can help it but I should be more willing to wager one or two units on close games that could go the underdogs way. In this case I thought this game should be closer to a pick 'em, which is what it opened at (-112 to -112) so I pounced on the value dog.
Losers:
Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +133 to defeat 100 Thieves (FEBRUARY PICK OF THE MONTH)
Wager: 6 units
Payout: LOSS
So this makes me 1 - 1 in my pick of the months. They happened to be in back to back weeks but this looked too good to be true for me and it almost was. Clutch Gaming should've had this game but a few big plays by 100 Thieves kept them in it until that coin flip stage and that's what happened. The logic was sound and I believe the weight of wager was a match for my thought process and justification.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -556 AND -1.5 @ -147 to defeat MVP 2 - 0
Wager: 6 + 3 = 9 units
Payout: LOSS
This one hurt. It just felt like the perfect "get right" situation but a line like this is way too big for a team that hasn't shown us much of anything yet. I should have not bet or did one unit on MVP in this game. Historically SK Telecom have frequently stomped opponents after embarassing losses in much the same way the Tom Brady Patriots do over the course of their dynasty. This bounce back factor along with superior players across the board, an MVP team that was a shadow of it's former self, and a sense of "it can't possibly be worse than last week" made this feel like a slam dunk but it wasn't. SK Telecom is now in the "I need to see anything at all" camp for me despite a decent performance in an 0-2 to Afreeca.
Lesson Learned:
1) If you're not sure, abstain:
SK Telecom is the example here. Belief is one thing, film is another. I know it in my bones that this team is not this bad but until they show me that I need to stay away and not bet with my emotions. This leads to my next lesson...
2) It's time to readjust your preseason expectations:
It's only been three weeks but we now have a handful of games to reassess our preseason expectations. Who is better than we thought? Who has arrived? Who hasn't? How hard will the overrated squads fall? These are the questions I need to ask myself and determine my answers to so I can plant my flag and formulate strategies.
3) Once again.... Bad teams, Good teams, and Great teams:
Bad teams are reliably bad, good teams are usually good but sometimes bad, great teams exceed good level and rarely don't. Differentiate teams that are bad, good, and great.
It's only been three weeks but we now have a handful of games to reassess our preseason expectations. Who is better than we thought? Who has arrived? Who hasn't? How hard will the overrated squads fall? These are the questions I need to ask myself and determine my answers to so I can plant my flag and formulate strategies.
3) Once again.... Bad teams, Good teams, and Great teams:
Bad teams are reliably bad, good teams are usually good but sometimes bad, great teams exceed good level and rarely don't. Differentiate teams that are bad, good, and great.
Week Three Roundup:
NA LCS: -0.38 units
EU LCS: +7.6 units
LCK: -0.025 units
LPL: No wagers
Parlays/Combos: -0.5 units
TOTAL FOR THE WEEK: +6.695 units
Bets for tomorrows games, if any, will be up later tonight.
Until next time...
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Preaseaon Predictions Articles can be found here:
Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (2/6/2018)!!
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