Thursday, February 1, 2018

Betting: February 2nd (EU LCS)

EU LCS February 2nd Schedule (Week 3 Day 1):

Unicorns of Love -112 @ H2k -118
Giants -119 @ ROCCAT -114
Schalke 04 -102 @ Team Vitality -130
G2 eSports -123 @ Splyce -110
Fnatic -118 @ Misfits -112

The EU slate this week is actually chock full of interesting matchups. I'm going to take a stance on a few but realize that this is literally five games that should be good ones on Friday so I'm hoping to learn a lot about where these teams stand from Friday's games. With that said, since these should be close and I've been just dreadful wagering on EU this year (-6.875 units so far), Europe has been with the LCK and NA LCS as "slow" game regions (all averaging between 39-41 minutes so far) so I'm a tad skeptical making really large wagers on long game best of ones especially because Patch 8.2 shouldn't really change too much in terms of tempo since stop watch still isn't nerfed hard enough.

Moneyline: Schalke 04 -102 (3 units)

I'm taking a stance to stick with my preseason guns on this one. Both of these teams have looked great so far but I expect one to keep improving and the other to come back down to earth a bit. To me, Schalke is the grower and Vitality is the shower here. Now I might have been wrong putting Vitality 8th in my preseason rankings but I also don't think they're this good either. Let's break these matchups down. Vizicsacsi against Cabochard to me is pretty close (although I favor Viziscacsi a tad he's more versatile), Pride against Gilius is even with Gilius maybe having slightly more upside and Pride being more stable so far in his young career, Jiizuke against Nukeduck to me is an example of the hot new rookie against the savvy but still excellent veteran who's waiting to derail the hype train, the bot lane is definitely in Schalke's favor. The point I'm trying to make is that these two teams are relatively evenly matched and in the positions that matter inparticular but Jiizuke and Minitroupax have been playing outside their minds recently. I tend to be the wet blanket in situations like this. Can I fault you for going the other way on this one? Maybe a little but I'd understand. I love some rookie hype but I'm going to stick with the tried, tested, and true Nukeduck and his, along with Vander's veteran shotcalling to take this one down.

Result: LOSS, I'm not entirely sure how Schalke lost this game. They had advantages (an infernal and a snowballed Kalista) and Vitality wasn't exactly clean either but Schalke made one really poor decision around the 16 minute mark where they thought they had made a pick but didn't have enough forward vision to see just how close Vitality was and they got closed on a lot faster than they anticipated. So to recap that, a mistake by Vitality that S04 tried to punish and it ended up being an accidental bait by Vitality (this 100% wasn't done on purpose). The thing that concerns me is that they didn't really damage control after that. They just kept forcing plays I guess because they thought they were outscaled which is guess is a good idea but it just went poorly for them. I'm still waiting for Vitality to come back down to earth here but Jiizuke is the real deal.



Moneyline: G2 eSports -123 (2 units)

One of the concepts I discussed in my Week In Review lessons post was to trust my evaluation and how my winningest bets so far have been the ones in which my evaluation skills have also capitalized on inaccurate lines. I'm trusting my preseason evaluation here but it's not just that. The mistakes G2 have made are fairly rudimentary for a professional team. There aren't gigantic communication and philosophical breakdowns like you're seeing with SK Telecom in the LCK. These are very fixable problems and have more to do with everyone being in line conceptually than execution. What does all this mean? I think G2 are better than their record. They've been on the bad end of some of the variance that comes with this specific patch and while I don't think Patch 8.2 will drastically change that I do think the cream will start rising to the top. Splyce is also a good team that has started rough so I could see some upside for them as well but I'm just betting on who I feel is the stronger team here. G2 have stronger players at every position except maybe top where even optimists would call the Wunder/Odoamne matchup a wash based on recent play. I'm going to keep this tame because I do think these two are very evenly matched and this game should tell us a lot about how these teams could look over the next couple weeks, or maybe it won't because, you know, best of ones and all....

Result: WIN (+3.62 units), Another close game but methodically closed out by G2 despite a less than ideal start.




Moneyline: Fnatic -118 (1 unit)


This match is about two mismatches: Sencux vs Caps and Maxlore vs Broxah. Typically the jungler trumps in these situations, especially in mid+jungle scenarios, but I think Caps+Broxah > Sencux+Maxlore in this situation because Caps has been absolutely dominant this season and Broxah isn't chopped liver (like Blank...). The reason I think this matchup hinges on this and not the bottom or top lane matchups is because I think, and this may be a surprise, these outer lanes are evenly matched. Rekkless has been an absolute monster so far but has made his mistakes and Hans Sama has quietly been having himself quite a split, leading the league in damage per minute and damage per gold. He's doing more with less. I still think this feels like a "get right" game for Fnatic. My mind is telling me Misfits here because Maxlore should be able to bend this game to his will but my heart is telling me that premium players like Caps, Rekless, Soaz, and Hylissang have to start winning games at some point, especially in a weakened Europe. I'll keep this to one unit because it's effectively a gut feeling.


Result: LOSS, How many heartbreakers is this team going to lose. This was a close, hard fought match where both teams looked great and it just got to the 63 minute coin flip type of situation. I'm not going soft on Fnatic off this although it's getting to the point now where they might just get down on themselves and start tilting. It's still early we have 13 more games to go and this team could easily make playoffs despite a rough start. 



Moneyline: Giants -119 (1 unit)

So this is another one of those situations where I think these teams are evenly matched both currently and based on my preseason evaluations (I had them 6th and 7th). I did choose, intentionally, to place ROCCAT in the B Tier while I left Giants in the C Tier but that was before seeing just how much of a monster Ruin is. This guy is taking over the game every single game, win or lose. He's pulling map pressure, dominating matchups that he shouldn't be, dominating matchups that he should be, and even outplaying 2v1 and 3v2 situations to minimize gains for the enemy. Ruin is a straight up beast and while I think these teams are pretty even, or maybe even slightly in ROCCAT's favor, neither has a true difference maker like Ruin. I'm willing to wager a unit solely on him to carry a game here. He's quietly been one of the best players in this entire region and it hasn't been close in top lane.

Result: WIN (+1.84 units), Man oh man Ruin is a monster! Absorbed so much jungle pressure this game and made some game ending engages on Gnar despite the focus being put toward shutting him down.

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