Kingzone DragonX (-769, -1.5 @ -175, M1 -333, M2 -333, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+450, +1.5 @ +127, M1 +225, M2 +226, M3 +226)
KSV eSports (-455, -1.5 @ -137, M1 -303, M2 -303, M3 -303)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
BBQ Olivers (+301, +1.5 @ +102, M1 +210, M2 +210, M3 +210)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -769 (4 units)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -175 (2 units)
So unlike SK Telecom who seems to be a mediocre team at best in their current form, I feel a lot more confident wagering on Kingzone to 2 - 0 this series against Kongdoo because they're an actual elite team and elite teams stomp bad teams. Especially with a few big upsets out of the way early in the season I can't see the good teams really sleeping on these matches anymore, especially in this current metagame. Kongdoo was stomped cleanly and decisively by a Jin Air team that doesn't really stomp anyone they just play neutral and hope to outscale. To me that shows this team has issues and while I know MVP recaptured some of last seasons essence vs SKT I think it was more a matter of SKT losing than MVP winning. Kongdoo and MVP are still the bottom two teams in the league in no particular order so this should be a swift and easy 2 - 0 for the fast paced Kingzone squad that loves demolishing people.
Result: WIN (+4.52 units)
Result: WIN (+3.14 units), This Kingzone team looks like they haven't missed a beat from last year. It's a shame they had such a poor worlds tournament relative to how good they should be. They're absolutely destroying everyone. This series took a total of 61 minutes game time. OF NOTE: U Jun got to play game two instead of Raise who I think has been decent for Kongdoo this season. Their main problem has been Roach and Secret.
Moneyline: KSV eSports -455 (4 units)
I'm going to stick with just the moneyline and not the handicap play because KSV's slow, scaling playstyle can lead to random game losses either from cheese strategies or the classic 45+ minute this is a 50/50 coinflip now situations they get themselves into on purpose. This is likely to be a 2 - 0 but I don't feel confident enough to lose any winnings I'd get from a 2 - 1 situation to make any relevant wager on the 2 - 0. The difference between this situation and the one above is that I think BBQ are a slightly better team than Kongdoo and that Kingzone wins games fast enough and in dominating enough fashion that they don't let games get to the point where the coinflips happen. This is decent line value at -455 hilariously enough which makes me want to push this up to 5 or 6 units but we'll keep it here for now.
Result: WIN (+4.88 units), Glad I didn't go in on the handicap -1.5 because KSV got behind early in this series. Interestingly BBQ gave Bono the full series instead of Trick and he actually looked decent especially in game one.
EU LCS February 3rd Schedule (Week 3 Day 2):
Unicorns of Love +196 @ Team Vitality -263
FC Schalke 04 -112 @ Giants Gaming -112
ROCCAT +130 @ Fnatic -167
H2k +199 @ G2 -263
Misfits -192 @ Splyce +148
Moneyline: Team Vitality -263 (3 units)
You know I keep saying this Vitality team is due for a crash but I just don't think it will be against this garbage Unicorns lineup. You could make an argument that this is a classic "let down" game especially with the Unicorns coming off their victory yesterday against... the other horrific team in H2k. Yea I'm willing to eat my hat on this one if that happens but I doubt it will.
Result: WIN (+4.14 units), Good teams end games against bad teams early enough to prevent scaling closer to 50/50 and Vitality have shown the ability to do that, maybe they're actually good, I'm curious. Jiizuke just outplaying everybody right now.
Moneyline: FC Schalke 04 -112 (4 units)
(UPDATE: This line moved from a -112 @ -112 to S04 +100 @ GIA -127, I've adjusted the wager accordingly)
Tough loss for Schalke yesterday in a game that they had a headstart in and just managed to throw away. As good as Giants have looked, Ruin inparticular, I can't see them keeping up first place or even top 3 and this is a spot where I think the turning point could start. Naturally people are down on Schalke after yesterday's weird loss and up on Giants after their victory over ROCCAT (the other first place team... what universe is this). I think this is a spot to jump on and here's my reasoning:
- Schalke were off to a blazing fast start in that game and likely could have secured a large enough advantage to push to a victory off that 16 minute pick play had it not gone horribly awry.
- I think Vizicsacsi can actually handle Ruin. Ruin might be playing at a higher level right now but unlike the other high end top laners in EU LCS that Ruin has already dominated (Cabochard and Wunder come to mind), Vizicsacsi has had some time to watch this guy play and has some film from other good top laners against him now.
- I believe that Pride is a stronger player than Djoko. I know we don't have much to look at for Pride as his time in the LCS is still young but we know what Djoko is at this point and it's not too exciting despite a good start.
- Nukeduck is WAY better than Betsy. History has shown this and Nukeduck actually played very well in the weird loss yesterday.
- Upset and Vander should have a clear edge over Steelback and Targamas, enough so that matchups might not matter.
That's enough going in Schalke's favor on me compared to what's working against them and when combined with my evaluations of these teams going into the season where I had Giants finishing 7th and Schalke 3rd I'm going to anticipate some regression to the mean that I established before the season began. This Schalke team should be very good and Giants, while overperforming even my optimistic expectations, are somewhere in the mediocre to good range. I don't like wagering too heavy on best of one games but I've also got a bit of a gut feeling on this one and the line changed (see update).
Result: WIN (+8.0 units), This was a close, slugfest kind of game in which Vizicsacsi made plays that almost threw the game and made plays that won the game. Good to see that my read on him being able to handle Ruin was correct. Vizicsacsi has actually been doing a ton of work without very much help at all, might be the best top laner in EU along with Ruin and maybe Soaz once he gets his act together. Upset had some pretty bad positioning errors but was able to output enough damage on Twitch for his team to clean up fights.
Moneyline: Fnatic -167 (1 unit)
I mentioned it in yesterday's post but just how many soulcrushing losses can this Fnatic team withstand. There is a really good chance this could end up being a tilt loss out of frustration but unlike their weird week one, Fnatic have actually looked good and been a little unlucky (ok a LOT unlucky) the past couple games. Misfits played an excellent game and so did Fnatic yesterday, in fact it might have been the most competitive and high level EU game this split so far. I think ROCCAT are due for a little regression as well. I had them 6th in the preseason and while they have been overachieving they still aren't exactly a potentially elite team with elite talent like Fnatic. This is a single unit bet on regression and that Fnatic could have won against Misfits who I feel are a slightly superior team to ROCCAT. Fnatic also have side choice if you're looking for another tiebreaker here. I don't think it's naive to say Fnatic "have to start winning at some point" but I did say I'm going to roll with them for at least this week before I hit the panic button in my Overrated/Underrated column.
Result: WIN (+1.6 units), I absolutely love this Aurelion Sol pick by Fnatic. It shows me that they've realized their problem is tempo and letting teams scale so they adjust and pick a Tristana + Aurelion up tempo team composition to rotate around and take/dive towers to end the game early. It wasn't perfectly executed but Fnatic jumped out to a MASSIVE lead through the early mid game. ROCCAT was able to stall for awhile in their base but this is a good look for Fnatic and I hope to see this willingness to adjust moving forward. Rekkles is back with a stellar 541 cs in 40 minutes and 8/0/8 score on Tristana.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -263 (4 units)
G2 looked more like themselves yesterday with their methodical, clean playstyle in a well-closed out game against a decent Splyce team. Splyce is significantly better than H2k and G2 appear to have figured some things out from the first couple weeks and cleaned up their act, at least from what we've seen (lol one game sample size!). I had G2 as the 2nd best team in Europe in my preseason rankings and H2k dead last. I'm going 4 units on this one. The reason I'm betting 4 on the same line as the UOL @ Vitality game is because I think this G2 team is significantly better than Vitality come seasons end and maybe even right now.
Result: WIN (+5.52 units), G2 look like they've hit their stride, they're whooping on bad teams now.
Moneyline: Splyce +188 (1 unit)
I'm going to think about this one and maybe add more tomorrow but I'm likely going to put a unit or two on Splyce here. This line seems off to me. Misfits looked excellent in the slobberknocker against Fnatic but so did G2, Splyce's opponent yesterday. I had these teams 4th and 5th respectively in my preseason predictions so for Misfits to be so heavily favored seems wrong. As I've said before, in moneyline betting you don't really want to get into the habit of constantly betting "line value" because it's way off but I think this is a case that I'm willing to take a shot at the big payoff. +188 implies a 34.72% chance of victory and I think these teams should be closer to a 55-45 spread, 60-40 at worst. This is also a good spot for Splyce psychologically if you want to believe in the whole "let down game" factor for Misfits after a grueling win yesterday against Fnatic.
Result: WIN (+2.88 units), Misfits had a massive lead in this one and just couldn't close. They'll be kicking themselves for this one. That said I'll take my win here.
NA LCS February 3rd Schedule (Week 3 Day 1):
Counter Logic Gaming +177 @ Echo Fox -250
Cloud 9 -244 @ OpTic Gaming +173
Clutch Gaming +133 @ 100 Thieves -182
FlyQuest +227 @ Team Liquid -333
Team Solo Mid -286 @ Golden Guardians +199
So the big news of the week so far is that Golden Guardians have "relieved Locodoco of his duties" as head coach. I said it over on my Twitter (@GelatiLOL) but to me this is a really bad move.
"Other than his time on TSM where he had a great roster to help out, @Locodoco has done nothing but turn mud to gold everywhere he's been. I know people might not like him for any number of reasons but to think he's a bad coach is short sighted. Bad move by GG's. For what it's worth, this Golden Guardians lineup isn't exactly full of world beaters. I'm not saying that's an excuse for poor performance but I can't help but think there's something else going on here. Maybe internal conflict? For a team to so openly commit to the "long term" and fostering young, domestic talent, Loco is an excellent choice to coach. He has a history of doing that with challenger squads and can work with imports as well if it comes to that. This move doesn't make a lot of sense without more information."
This NA LCS slate has loads of heavy favorites and one matchup inparticular that looks really juicy to me, enough so that I may even drop an early Pick of the Month on you all but you'll just have to keep reading to find it.
Moneyline: Echo Fox -250 (3 units)
(UPDATE: This line has moved to +224 @ -303, I'm going to keep this wager still as Echo Fox should roflstomp a bad CLG team but at this spread I don't like the chance at losing a bigger amount.)
This CLG team sucks and Echo Fox are absolutely stomping all but the other top teams right now and they're even winning those games. They'll drop a game at some point, this team isn't perfect but I doubt it'll be against this struggling CLG squad who have to deal with the nightmare of having to deal with potentially three losing lanes. Darshan is one of these perenially overrated players that is only really good at one thing and Huni is just better at him at every aspect of the game and has the better jungler in tow. I might actually up this wager tomorrow with some more thought but we'll keep it at 3 for now.
Result: LOSS, Really didn't like the draft from Echo Fox here to give up the Kalista and Zoe combo. It's not like Echo Fox played badly, CLG just had a really good game on a better team composition.
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -244 (3 units)
Another of the four heavy favorites on this slate with perhaps the most peculiar line. OpTic aren't really any better than FlyQuest and are only margainally better than Golden Guardians to me if I'm being honest while Cloud 9 is a pretty clear top 3 team. Strange. This is another one that I may up with more thought put into it but for now we'll take the elite team over the mediocre team especially with rookie Licorice looking excellent.
Result: WIN (+4.23 units)
Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +133 (6 units FEBRUARY PICK OF THE MONTH)
It's only February 3rd and I'm dropping my Pick of the Month? Yea whatever maybe I'll do another one, deal with it. If you read my Overrated/Underrated column I've been way down on this 100 Thieves team despite an excellent performance last week against Team Liquid. While Patch 8.2 didn't change much it did give professional teams another week of ways to exploit the slow, scaling strategies that teams. To me, 100 Thieves are being held up by a shakey foundation in much the same way Jin Air are in the LCK. While they're good at playing their late game scaling nobody has really punished them for it. I thought Team Liquid had an absolutely abysmal draft last week and 100 Thieves just took what was handed to them on a silver platter. Anyway let's unpack this matchup in a little more detail.
- I think Clutch Gaming have superior mid and jungle play by far. I'm willing to forgive Lira for perhaps the worst game of his career last week and take advantage of people being down on him. If you control the middle of the map you can create pressure elsewhere and end games before 100 Thieves scaling style has a chance to win. This is difficult but within the execution range for Febiven and Lira.
- While I think Aphromoo might be the best player in the bot lane, Apollo and Hakuho have a ton of synergy and experience together and are still severely underrated by the general public because they haven't been on winning teams.
- 100 Thieves have only defeated one good team (Liquid) and it was due mostly to an egregiously poor draft. Their other victories have been against OpTic and CLG who are pretty clearly mediocre to poor teams right now.
- My preseason evaluation of 100 Thieves was that they'd finish dead last, a prediction that I'm willing to admit defeat on (hi Golden Guardians!) but the main idea here is that this team is VASTLY overperforming expectations not only just the appearance of their record but also the quality of their wins. I was, and still am, very high on this Clutch Gaming lineup.
This is a bit riskier than my January Pick of the Month (Echo Fox +105 vs Cloud 9) but I feel that 100 Thieves have yet to be punished for their predictable, unimaginative play right now. I know that Clutch haven't had any wins against good teams either but they've also demolished the bad teams while 100 Thieves have just forced coinflip late games over and over against teams that refuse to punish them, or in Liquid's case refuse to draft to do so.
Result: LOSS, Clutch had this game in their... clutches apparently and couldn't close. I'll have to watch the film on this one tomorrow or Monday I didn't get to watch it live.
Moneyline: TSM -286 (3 + 2 units)
(UPDATE: I'm going to add two more units also at -286 to this one. I just can't come up with a scenario where TSM drops this game if they can make similar adjustments to what Fnatic made.)
Another heavy favorite that people might be skeptical on due to recency bias. TSM haven't looked that great but they're simply too talented and have a coach that knows what he's doing. It was a rough start, I still expect them to finish in the top three teams and maybe even win the split and their comeback road, if you want to call it that, starts this week with a softball against the Golden Guardians who just fired their coach. Yet another heavy favorite that I may move another unit to tomorrow after some more thought.
Result: WIN (+6.75 units)
Moneyline: Liquid -333 (3 units)
FlyQuest had their week one win against a sluggish TSM team that wasn't themselves and against the worst team in the league in Golden Guardians. Their losses were to Echo Fox (understandable) and OpTic who is more or less their level, a "slightly better than the worst" team. Another factor is the Fly will not be starting until week 4 (confirmed via FQ discord and subreddit) although he is now in the US. Maybe I'll be a bit more excited about this team when he's playing although Keane has certainly been servicable. Liquid should stomp.
Result: WIN (+3.9 units), Shrimp apparently started for FlyQuest but I'm not sure why. Again I'll have to watch these tomorrow or Monday to review.
Combination/Parlays:
Parlay (5): FOX -303, C9 -244, TL -333, TSM -286, CG +133 (0.1 units) LOSS
Parlay (4): FOX -303, C9 -244, TL -333, TSM -286 (0.2 units) LOSS
Parlay (3): FOX -303, C9 -244, TSM -286 (0.2 units) LOSS
Heavy favorites on the NA LCS slate I'll try my hand at a few cheap parlays.
I'll probably revisit and update some of these NA wagers tomorrow morning so check back and see if I've moved up, down, or stay on any of these.
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