Kingzone DragonX (-769, -1.5 @ -213, M1 -455, M2 -455, M3 -455)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
BBQ Olivers (+426, +1.5 @ +153, M1 +291, M2 +291, M3 +291)
KSV eSports (-323, -1.5 @ -111, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+228, +1.5 @ -122, M1 +177, M2 +177, M3 +177)
Personal Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Kingzone Dragon X -1900 (95%) @ Kongdoo Monster (5%)
KSV eSports -300 (75%) @ BBQ Olivers (25%)
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Moneyline: Kingzone Dragon X -769 (5 units)
Moneyline: Kingzone Dragon X -1.5 maps @ -213 (2 units)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 (0.5 units each)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 Kingzone DragonX FIRST BLOOD @ -159 (0.5 units each)
So yesterday the 10 game win streak for Afreeca ended in an 0-2 to Jin Air, a team with some upcoming players and steady veterans as well as an underrated UmTi and Sohwan controlling the top half of the map. They were games that snowballed out of control fairly early on, perhaps a result of the new patch or teams now having 5 weeks of professional play on the patch or maybe some combination of both. Jin Air were slightly better than their record and went into the break cold and Afreeca looked as good as their record but you could argue were due for a loss or two. This isn't hte same situation.
In my LCK Spring 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List I put Kingzone in S+ tier, a tier reserved for only for the top teams world wide. I also put KSV and KT Rolster there. The truth is that Kingzone are in a tier of their own (S++?). They're far and away the strongest team on the planet right now. They haven't even had a close game since their loss in Week 1 and that's been against strong competition and weak competition, with and without substitutions, and even when they're goofing around and styling. The question becomes whether or not you believe there is a hard cap to how good you can be at League as a team. I personally think ther is room to grow for this squad. Perhaps showing yet another different strategy or more perfect games or something. The point I'm making is that I don't expect the holiday hangover like I even slightly did for Afreeca here.
BBQ Olivers are just barely better than the bottom tier teams of Kongdoo and MVP and to be honest they might actually just be about the same and I'm just optimistic. Crazy has been their strongest player and while you look paint a picture where it's good that he could match Khan/Rascal and that's a bonus for BBQ, the rest of the team has just struggled so much. They struggled against MVP before the break and havent had a win since Week 2 against a slumbering Jin Air team. They're doing a measely 1693 damager per minute as a team, are consistently behind in all economty differentials, and generally play really poorly in the macro game. In so many words, this team is really sloppy. They're the chippy, tricky guy that makes a lot of mistakes and if you can punish them the game is over, if you can't then they can run you over with their aggression.
Now the BBQ Olivers do have some fight in them, they're not going to roll over and die but I just can't come up with a situation where they win this game. I'm sincerely trying to and I can't do it. Kingzone could play both of their subs and I think their subs are as good or better than BBQ's starters and unlike the teams that BBQ has beaten this split (Kongdoo and Jin Air), Kingzone punish mistakes in devastating fashion. This Kingzone squad reminds me of the the form SK Telecom was in during their perfect season. Everything works, very few teams can even come remotely close to them individually (KSV and KT Rolster), they have "the new hotness" player in Khan who has taken the world by storm in the past year and a half, and their synergy, strategic versatility, and swagger are unparalleled. I predicted this team to go 16-2 and said that 17-1 wouldnt surprise me. I don't think this is the time they'll drop their first game since Week 1. They'll move on to a 16-0 game score and an 8-1 match score.
I'm even taking the 35:00 under here. BBQ simply make too many crucial mistakes and even if they don't, Kingzone will force it out of them. I'm even laying the -213 in the handicap. This is as close to a lock as it gets.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
Result: UNDER 35:00 M1 LOSS, M2 WIN (net -0.185 units)
Result: LOSS
Result: UNDER 35:00 M1 LOSS, M2 WIN (net -0.185 units)
What can I say? I'll eat my hat on this one I suppose. I was discussing this on one of the r/sportsbook threads on reddit but in League of Legends there are very few of these types of upsets every year and we've just had a disproportionate amount of this so far this season.
- If I were to wager 100 units on this bet 100 different times at -750 that's a 13.3 net per win.
- 13.3 x 100 wins = 13, 300 (ROI of 13.3%)
- I'd say the average rate of an "upset" in the major, best of 3 regions is under 5%, honestly it's probably less than that but I'd have to handicapping back in time for 5+ years of data when handicapping League wasn't really a thing.
- If you bust and lose 5 out of 100 wins you're still in the green.
- 13.33 x 89 wins = 1186.37, 110 x 11 losses = 1100
- It isn't until the 12th loss that this technically breaks into the red.
So I'm going to put a disclaimer out there for those interested and are tailing or fading me. Unless I have a very good reason not to I won't be stopping big moneyline wagers if I sincerely feel the line is deserving. I had this line set at 95% chance for Kingzone to win which should be a -1900 line. Perhaps that line was actually closer to 90-10 split which is roughly -900. Maybe you don't believe in teams being that much better or maybe you do but that's your call. This is extremely high risk for low gain but I'm trusting my evaluation on it and I'm not going to shy away just because I've been burned a couple times already this season.
I'm generalizing a bit but typically a league has 2 teams that are a cut above the rest, sometimes more sometimes less and 1-4 teams that are a cut below the middle. It's these types of matchups where you see large lines.
- LPL: 1 and 2 seeds against 6 and 7 seeds. Each plays their in conference team twice and out of conference once meaning we have 24 of these PER LPL SPLIT for a grand total of 48.
- LCK: 1 and 2 seeds against 9 and 10 seeds. Each play twice. 8 per LCK split for total of 16
- LMS: 1 and 2 seeds against 9 and 10 seeds. Each play once. 4 per LMS split for grand total 8
The flaw in this theory comes from volume. Unlike in years past, there is going to be fewer than 100 of these scenarios worldwide because NA and EU LCS are no longer best of series (and would've been less reliable 10 vs 1 seed matchups anyway). We're looking at approximately 72 matchups where we have "surefire" or "free" money. If that's the case it only takes 8.64 losses to get to the red (losing money) and that's assuming you maintain unit value throughout (which we have not).
So far this year we've had (ballparking "big moneyline" as anything above -450):
- Kingzone -769 loss to BBQ
- KSV -556 loss to ROX
- SK -556 loss to MVP
- KSV -769 loss to Kongdoo Monster
For those curious, the math at -556 becomes 17.99% or 18 losses to give out of 100 matches (12.96 or 12 for 72 matches).
TL:DR - For regular season matches for the CALENDAR YEAR we have approximately 4 more losses to give at -769 rate and 7-8 at -556 rate before we're in the red.
Do we want to play that game? I actually think we do. I can't remember a season with so many DRASTIC upsets like this and we've had a bunch already. Part of this, to me at least, felt like the state of the game and patch forcing good teams to play the same game as bad teams and forcing a lot of 50/50 scenarios but with the game going away from that I'm willing to still lay the money in most scenarios. It's not for everybody and it depends on your risk profile so proceed as you wish.
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Moneyline: KSV eSports -323 (4 units)
Moneyline: KSV eSports -1.5 maps @ -111 (2 units)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 17.5 Total Kills @ -116 (0.5 units each)
KSV had a rough go against KT Rolster in their first match back from break but KT are an absolute nightmare matchup for the style this team wants to play and they're not quite good enough at playing for early and mid game to match the top teams, as a matter of fact KSV almost never try but we've seen them do it before. With a week off at the World Championships this past year they reinvented themselves and went on a run to win the title. Having to face KT, perhaps the second best team in the world that's also a stylistic mismatch for you, is a bit unlucky.
This team needs to start winning games. They are the only team to take even a game off Kingzone and while I don't normally point to isolated events like that as meaning something it clearly did. Kongdoo are the perfect punching bag for this team right now. Kongdoo don't play for early, KSV has been afraid to. As a matter of fact you WANT to play fast against Kongdoo and while KSV is often hesitant to do so (TSM anybody?) I think they've got to see ROX, SKT, Jin Air, and Afreeca surrounding them in the standings and do a reality check on their playoff hopes at this point. KSV needs this game. They have a world class lineup that has looked like they're haze and coasting off the stereotypical championship hangover but it's time to chug that coffee and get to work.
I'm going extremely heavy on this game partially based on metrics, player evaluation, and trends but the primary reason is momentum and the psychological aspect.
- Kongdoo won this series last time with the Jarvan + Galio + Alistar combination. The Jarvan + Galio combo alone is something that has been banned out recently. I think it caught KSV off guard for their game 1 loss
- In Game 2 of their first meeting KSV had a lead but simply could not close the game due to a couple of absolutely insane individual plays by Edge and Ssol combined with Roach's Gangplank. I don't think it's reasonable to rely on some 1% type outplays to happen multiple times in a game again and KSV very well could have gone on to shake off game one and win that series
- KSV have seen what Kongdoo plan to do on this patch from their games against SKT earlier this week. Information is more important to teams with superior players because they're less likely to be caught off guard by something.
- KSV lost in disappointing fashion last time around and have revenge in mind which makes me think this won't just be a win but a total rout.
- KSV have "must win" type of playoff implications on every single game from here on out. Kongdoo are more or less out of the playoff picture.
- Stronger individual players in every position for KSV.
This just feels like one of those "get right" scenarios and Kongdoo are the perfect medicine. I expect to see a different KSV, one that is confident and not hesitant and completely smashes this Kongdoo team to remind everybody why they were the world champs.
Result: WIN (+5.24 units)
Result: WIN (+2.94 units)
Result: UNDER 37:00 M1 WIN, M2 LOSS (net -0.14 units)
Result: UNDER 17.5 kill LOSS LOSS (net -1 unit)
We missed the Under 37 in game 2 by 11 seconds but this was otherwise KSV getting their swagger back. These games were significantly higher kill totals than I envisioned but it's good to see KSV back.
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(I MAY PUT SOME LMS PICKS UP LATER ON, CHECK BACK!)
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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