Yesterday's Net: -10.48 units (includes Live bets)
Absolutely brutal day yesterday as Team Liquid and Team Solo Mid absolutely boned our bottom line for the weekend. If you were sticking with just my moneyline picks you still ended up in the green on the weekend though.
I actually took some time to watch a couple of SuperMassive's VODs as well as some others from the TCL to see just what it is they're doing to be 15-0 in the TCL this year and I have some thoughts after combing through some TCL stats and film.
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Turkish Champions League February 19th
Galakticos +225 @ Team AURORA -345
Royal Bandits -185 @ 1907 Fenerbahce +133
HWA Gaming +185 @ YouthCrew -270
SuperMassive TNG -303 @ DarkPassage +200
Moneyline: SuperMassive TNG -303 (2 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 20.5 Kills @ -116 (0.5 units)
I was curious about how a team gets to 15-0 in a best of one format so I watched SuperMassives games against the 2nd-5th place teams to see what was up. Maybe TSM is getting some inspiration from them because this team does next to nothing proactively. They just sit back and wait for the inferior competition to make mistakes. I've seen them be 5 or more kills to none and still have a gold lead and two outer towers. This region doesn't know how to punish anything whatsoever they just dive and if it works then it works and if it doesn't then they just reset without new assignments. It's a mess. SuperMassive seriously just let GBM and Zeitnot farm for 25 minutes then the other team makes a fatal error or they clear vision around baron, take it and then end the game. Against the other "good" teams the games are pretty low kill totals but yesterday against 1907 Fenerbahce, GBM busted out the Illaoi mid as a counter to Galio and it sort of made the game into this bloody mess. SuperMassive won this game down 14 kills to 20 kills and three INFERNAL drakes to zero and they still won. They play "bend but don't break" defense in League of Legends... Guys this is what TSM are trying to do and what Fnatic was trying to do before they got their shit together except this region doesn't have the players or the team play to actually get anything. SuperMassive do two things well; farm and minimize losses. They're playing a different game than the rest of Turkey and it's why they're winning. They'll lose a fight but they never lose a fight by enough for the other team to get anything out of it seemingly ever. Against the bottom tier teams they literally just lane all the way to the base. Three lane press because their players are better and people don't know what to do if they ever get kills on them. To me there is one, maybe two, teams that have players that are good enough to stand up to this team, and that's even considering the direction the game has gone to be less about the individual. That's Royal Bandits and 1907 Fenerbahce and neither of them have been able to get it done against this team.
Dark Passage are coming off defeats to two middle of the league teams in AURORA and YouthCrew but to me they're actually the second best team in this league. They absolutely destroyed current second place team Royal Bandits in 21 minutes (the fastest game I've seen in any league this season) and have a win against Fenerbahce but they got decimated by this SuperMassive team in their first meeting in a slow, low kill game they just made fatal, stupid mistakes. I like this to be another slow, low kill game like the first one and SuperMassive to come out on top.
Result: WIN (+2.66 units)
Result: WIN (+0.93 units)
Carefully played methodical 14-3 game by SuperMassive.
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Moneyline: Royal Bandits -185 (2 units)
Moneyline: Royal Bandits FIRST BLOOD -137 (0.5 units)
These guys are fast, aggressive, and even still their economy and KDA numbers are pretty insane. Holyphoenix and Cepted seem to be dumpstering everyone besides GBM and Zeitnot on SuperMassive. They're a tad sloppy and seem to struggle with good early game teams (like HWA) but against slow teams that aren't SuperMassive they have the edge. The first meeting between these two was a 28 minute stomp from the Bandits and even without counterpick they can probably repeat.
Royal Bandits have gotten first blood in 13 out of 15 games this season and Fenerbahce have given first blood 53% of the time making me think RB have a good chance at scoring that and snowballing a victory.
Result: WIN (+3.08 units)
Result: WIN (+0.865 units)
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