Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Betting: January 31st (LCK)

LCK January 31st Schedule (Week 3 Day 2):

Kingzone DragonX (-435, -1.5 @ -137, M1 -294, M2 -294, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+307, +1.5 @ +106, M1 +204, M2 +204, M3 +204)

Afreeca Freecs (-200, -1.5 @ +128, M1 -167, M2 -167, M3 -167)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+145, +1.5 @ -167, M1 +122, M2 +122, M3 +122)

(UPDATE: Patch 8.1 not 8.2)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -435 (5 units)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -137 (1.5 units)

I feel bad for the ROX Tigers this week. They've got to face Kingzone AND KT Rolster who are both top 4 teams and while I like this ROX lineup to be the "best of the rest" (AKA 7th place, the gatekeepers) they're just not up for this unless Kuzan plays, which might not happen, and can just go completely ballistic on something like Zoe. This ROX lineup is going to run into the same problem the BBQ Olivers did against these higher quality teams and that is that they are just outclassed in every position. The B tier LCK teams (BBQ and ROX) have an identity and can defeat the bad teams like MVP and Kongdoo and ocassionally a mid tier team with a flaw like SKT or Jin Air but they just can't measure up to the premium squads. Could an upset similar to KSV vs Kongdoo happen where the star players on the inferior team pull out a massive carry performance? Sure but I'm not going to rely on that. I'm willing to bet the win and I think the 2 - 0 has like an 80% chance of happening but I've been burned all last week going too hard on the 2 - 0 bets so I'll keep this to a limit where I'll cover the buy in for the -1.5 @ -137 bet and break even on a 2 - 1. Unlike other teams I'm not afraid of Kingzone playing slow and letting a team back into the game because they're a great team so I'm relatively confident in the 2 - 0 here.

Result: WIN (+6.15 units) KZ absolutely roflstomped these games including a BM Riven counterpick in game two.

Result: WIN (+2.595 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs  -200 (4 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ +128 (1.5 units)

Afreeca had a rough schedule last week having to face both Kingzone and KSV. Kingzone absolutely demolished them but the KSV series was interesting. Afreeca won a long, drawn out game one that had a total of 4 kills in a 47 minute game which show's their ability to utilize good macro play and disciplined use of Zoe. Game two was a 72 minute heartbreaker in which Afreeca led more or less until everybody was full build but simply could not close the game against the reigning world champs. This was the game where, with three inhibs down five players strong could not kill the exposed nexus leaving it at one health. After an ace with their nexus at one auto attack KSV pushed to win the game right then and there at 72 minutes. Now it'd be easy to say "Afreeca effectively 2 - 0'd KSV the other day if the nexus had just been auto'd by one person or a super minion" but they did, understandably, tilt the next game away in a 30 minute loss and in a matter of really 31 minutes went from 2 - 0'ing KSV to losing 2 - 1. Let's clear some things up. This Afreeca team is good, perhaps better than I anticipated and I was fairly high on them, but they're not quite an elite team. You need to be able to close a game like that out and while I think it was just a little bit unlucky they had 70 other minutes in that game to try to close. KSV defended admiarably and as one of the best defensive teams I've ever seen (coincidentally they remind me a lot of SKT and old Samsung Blue) I wasn't that surprised at the defense but COME ON! You gotta close that!! Regardless I think Afreeca are a cut above BBQ and this should be a stomping. You have to think the one thing they worked on all week was closing games out and BBQ have plenty of weaknesses for this strong lineup to expose. I'm maybe 70/30 in favor of the 2 - 0 here. This line seems way WAY out of whack to me which makes me want to go heavier on it but I'll keep this bet to 4 units simply because Afreeca are just barely on the cusp of being considered a "great" team to me so they are still relatively likely to randomly drop a series like this one. They're not quite there yet and this bet will leave me plus money on a 2 - 1 win or a 2 - 0.

Result: WIN (+6 units),  Afreeca's bot lane owned both these games to make short work of BBQ

Result: WIN (+3.42 units)


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