Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Betting: January 24th (LCK)

LCK January 25th Schedule (Week 2 Day 3):

ROX Tigers (-109, no handicap, M1 -116, M2 -116, M3 -116)
@ (Over/Under 36:00 Over/Under 18.5 Kill Total)
Kongdoo Monster (-122, no handicap, M1 -116, M2 -116, M3 -116)

KSV eSports (-435, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -313, M2 -323, M3 -323)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Over/Under 18.5 Kill Total)
Afreeca Freecs (+290, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +213, M2 +219, M3 +219)

Moneyline: ROX Tigers -109 (1 unit)

While I don't particularly think ROX is that great a team I do think that the 6-8th teams in Korea are a cut above Kongdoo and MVP. Really I think there's 4.5 tiers in LCK:
  • S+ Tier: KSV
  • S Tier: Kingzone DragonX
  • A Tier: KT Rolster, SK Telecom, Jin Air, Afreeca
  • B Tier: ROX Tigers,  BBQ Olivers
  • C Tier: Kongdoo Monster, MVP
ROX Tigers aren't great at making proactive plays happen but unlike the bottom tier teams they ARE able to punish mistakes which makes me believe that they'll be the gatekeepers to the top 6 and perhaps even upset Afreeca or Jin Air later in the season if Kuzan can just keep going nuts like he did in summer. Combine the tier difference, ROX seemingly having a good grasp on this metagame despite not being an elite team, and their ability to punish mistakes and I think this could actually be a 2 - 0 despite Kongdoo looking slightly improved. Slightly improved does not equal stepping up to the next level. That being said I don't think these teams are great and as I've mentioned I'm going to limit bets when two bad teams are playing.

Result: WIN (+1.92 unit)

Moneyline: KSV Esports -435 (4 unit)

KSV are just playing at a different level right now. Every single player has been so severely outplaying their opponents that they can make mistakes, like Crown getting caught in river against KZ, and still be up such a substantial amount that it doesn't matter. It almost reminds me of the Marin-era SK Telecom where people would just throw every trick they could come up with at them and they were just so damn good at macro it didn't matter and if you tried to play them straight up they just had better players than you in almost every position. I think KZ and KT are the only teams that can challenge this team right now and KZ just got decisively 2 - 0'd the other day. This team is a house and I'm willing to say they'll sweep an Afreeca team that has looked pretty good..

Result: WIN (+4.92 unit)  let it be noted that KSV won this series after being obliterated in game one and their nexus being literally one auto attack from dead in game two after a long game.

Moneyline: KSV Esports -1.5 @ -116  (2 unit)

I'd be surprised isn't a 2 - 0 despite Afreeca looking solid and Spirit inparticular playing as well as he did back on Samsung Blue.

Result: LOSS 

Parlay (2): ROX Tigers -109, KSV -1.5 @ -116 (0.2 unit)

Just a two team parlay on the two picks here. I'm not going to make it three with an over/under because I'm not entirely sure KSV will just roll over Afreeca as they tend to be a methodical team. ROX @ Kongdoo could be short or long also so we'll keep it tame at 0.2 to payout 0.714.

Result: LOSS

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