Monday, January 22, 2018

Betting: January 22nd

LCK January 23rd Schedule (Week 2 Day 1):
Afreeca Freecs (+212,  +1.5 @ -135, M1 +162, M2 +150, M3 +139)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Over/Under 18.5 Kill Total)
Kingzone DragonX (-286, -1.5 @ +104, M1 -227, M2 -208, M3 -192)

BBQ Olivers (-143, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -135, M2 -139, M3 -132)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Over/Under 20.5 Kill Total)
ROX Tigers (+108, +1.5 @ -278, M1 -101, M2 +102, M3 -103)

Moneyline: ROX Tigers +108  (2 unit)

I had the BBQ Olivers listed as one of my Overrated Teams this week and while I don't  think this ROX team is particularly good they're certainly not bad. ROX was able to take a game of SKT and even a reeling SKT is a significantly better opponent than an improved Kongdoo Monster. This line should be a lot closer and it's sort of out of whack other than the juice. -143 is an implied 58.85% win chance and I think this line should be closer to a pick 'em or even ROX being slight favorites. This is a moneyline value bet which isn't a habit I want to get into because it's ultimately about selecting the right team but much like my Golden Guardians and OpTic plays this past weekend the line being this off felt like I had to place something on it. In this case I think ROX is a slightly better team and the line is way off.

Result: WIN (+4.16 units), I won this bet but I don't think this was ROX playing well as much as BBQ being unable to close games out which is something I completely forgot to mention went into this decision.

Moneyline: ROX Tigers +1.5 games @ -278 (2 unit)

While I like ROX Tigers straight up in this series the value on this handicapped +1.5 game spread isn't quite as high or I'd be placing a larger wager. Regardless I'll tack this on as a failsafe in case this becomes a 2 - 1 BBQ to hedge a bit.

Result: WIN ( +2.72 unit)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -286 (2 unit)

I mentioned Kingzone in my Underrated Teams this week because they faced a KSV (Samsung) team that looked absolutely dominant and poised to avoid the championship hangover. And that was it. They only played one game last week. They got to see a three game series from Afreeca against KT (a team that plays similarly to themselves in theory) so I'm thinking information and overall better player quality bring this team that I'd definitely have Top 3 in the world back to the spotlight.

Result: WIN (+2.7 unit)

(UPDATE: I've been researching the LPL a bit and while I don't plan to bet the games normally as my knowledge of that region isn't up to the others, a trend I've noticed is that about two thirds of LPL games so far this season have clocked in under the 29 minute mark so I'm going to look into it a bit more but for now I'm just going to do a fun parlay with the unders included for game 1s)

Parlay (4): LGD @ RNG M1 UNDER 34:00, Snake @ Team WE M1 UNDER 35:00, ROX Tigers +108, Kingzone -286 (0.5 unit)

Result: LOSS, We missed this by 14 seconds. Would have paid out 4.855 units.

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